Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100

Earth System Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(1), С. 133 - 157

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2022

Abstract. The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it a with spatially varying and diverse ecosystems, but also under pressure due high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society eutrophication considerably. Therefore, there has been focus on estimations future its recent research. In this overview paper, we will concentrate presentation projections 12.5 km horizontal resolution atmosphere-only regional models Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – European domain (EURO-CORDEX). Comparison be done corresponding prior results well coupled atmosphere–ocean models. model strengthen conclusions previous assessments. This includes strong warming, particular north winter. Precipitation projected increase whole apart southern half during summer. Consequently, new lend more credibility estimates uncertainties robust features change. Furthermore, larger number scenarios gives opportunities better address mitigation measures. simulations model, signal locally modified relative stand-alone atmosphere model. Differences are largest areas where system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures sea-ice conditions.

Язык: Английский

---

Mid-Holocene European climate revisited: New high-resolution regional climate model simulations using pollen-based land-cover

Quaternary Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 281, С. 107431 - 107431

Опубликована: Фев. 23, 2022

Land-cover changes have a clear impact on local climates via biophysical effects. European land cover has been affected by human activities for at least 6000 years, but possibly longer. It is thus highly probable that humans altered climate before the industrial revolution (AD1750–1850). In this study, and vegetation years (6 ka) ago investigated using one global model, two regional models, dynamical pollen-based reconstruction of past model pollen-vegetation relationship statistical spatial interpolation reconstructed cover. This approach enables us to study 6 ka with potential natural cover, determine how differences in upon simulated climate. The use models discuss robustness results. first experiment palaeo-climate based models. Different estimates are constructed: vegetation. Potential climate-induced as driven conditions from model. Bayesian interpolated point plant abundances combined un-vegetated were used heavily dominated forests: evergreen coniferous forests dominate northern eastern Europe, while deciduous broadleaved central western Europe. contrast, large component open most was 0–5 °C warmer than pre-industrial (PI) climate, depending season region. largest seen north-eastern Europe winter about 4–6 °C, smallest (close zero) southwestern winter. had 10–20% more precipitation PI less southern summer. results reasonable agreement proxy-based reconstructions previous similar modelling studies. As expected, indicate relatively albeit indicating that, response land-cover differently. anthropogenic changes, given vegetation, enough significant likely land-use change already taking place ka. Our suggest lead around 0.5 summer due biogeophysical forcing.

Язык: Английский

---

A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100351 - 100351

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2023

Climate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, comprehensive analysis of how climate change affect Portugal (located in hotspot) is conducted, providing the foundations first National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100. A multi-variable ensemble was built and tested, being baseline assessing future three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) throughout 21st century, accounting model's ability simulate set variables. warmer drier projected mainland, more severe interior regions. Even optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, results indicate increases temperature between 1 2 °C comparison with historical period surpass 6 some regions RCP8.5. Extreme hot events will frequent severe, maximum temperatures above 45 common century. decline precipitation expected mostly summer intermediate seasons, losses 40 % end-of-century. However, an intensification heavy short-term rainfall increase northern rising wind gusts also these Such call urgent planning measures safeguard critical sectors Portuguese society. Finally, information here produced examined constitutes key example services mitigation Portugal.

Язык: Английский

---

The effect of green infrastructure on resilience performance in combined sewer systems under climate change

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 353, С. 120229 - 120229

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Climate change is currently reshaping precipitation patterns, intensifying extremes, and altering runoff dynamics. Particularly susceptible to these impacts are combined sewer systems (CSS), which convey both stormwater wastewater can lead overflow (CSO) discharges during heavy rainfall. Green infrastructure (GI) help mitigate enhance system resilience under historical conditions; however, the quantification of its effect on in a future climate remains unknown literature. This study employs modified Global Resilience Analysis (GRA) framework for continuous simulation quantify impact CSS resilience, particularly CSOs. The assesses efficacy GI interventions (green roofs, permeable pavements, bioretention cells) diverse rainfall scenarios based EURO-CORDEX regional models (2085–2099) three Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 8.5 W/m2). findings underscore general decline indices across considered. Notably, total yearly CSO discharge volume increases by range 145 % 256 response different scenarios. While proves effective increasing it falls short offsetting change. Among options assessed, green roofs routed pervious areas exhibit highest adaptive capacity, ranging from 9 22 at level, followed pavements with an adaptation capacity between 7 13 %. By linking effects performance, this contributes understanding GI's potential as strategic tool enhancing urban resilience.

Язык: Английский

---

Storylines for Future Projections of Precipitation Over New Zealand in CMIP6 Models

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(5)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2024

Abstract Large uncertainty exists in the sign of long‐term changes regional scale mean precipitation across current generation global climate models. To explore physical drivers this for New Zealand, here we adopt a storyline approach applying cluster analysis to spatial patterns future projected seasonal change CMIP6 models ( n = 43). For winter signal, split roughly into two main groups: both groups have very robust wet signal west coast South Island but differ notably terms north North Island. These far differences appear related how Hadley cell edge and eddy‐driven jet shift relative their historical positions. In contrast, summer, most markedly weaker spatially non‐uniform response, where internal variability often plays large role. However, small group predict country summer. This “wet model” is characterized by La Niña‐like increase high pressure shifted further south‐east associated with more frequent north‐easterly flow over accompanied significant warming local sea surface temperatures. circulation response appears stationary Rossby wave paths as opposed Niña occurrence frequency itself.

Язык: Английский

---

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 212, С. 115213 - 115213

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2025

Язык: Английский

---

Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 38, С. 100553 - 100553

Опубликована: Март 14, 2025

Язык: Английский

---

European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Geoscientific model development, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 13(11), С. 5485 - 5506

Опубликована: Ноя. 11, 2020

Abstract. In this study, we evaluate a set of high-resolution (25–50 km horizontal grid spacing) global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), developed as part EU-funded PRIMAVERA (Process-based simulation: Advances in high resolution modelling and European risk assessment) project, EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) regional (RCMs) (12–50 over domain. It is first time that an assessment information using ensembles both GCMs RCMs at similar resolutions has been possible. The focus evaluation on distribution daily precipitation 50 scale under current conditions. Both GCM RCM are evaluated against high-quality gridded observations terms spatial station density. We show outperform 5th Coupled (CMIP5), which cannot capture regional-scale properly because their coarse resolutions. generally simulate distributions within range RCMs. perform better summer autumn most regions but tend to overestimate winter spring. shows improvements latter by reducing moderate-precipitation rate biases central western Europe. mean also improved PRIMAVERA. Finally, heavy simulated agrees with seasons, while CORDEX overestimates extremes. However, uncertainty exists due potential undercatch error, especially during heavy-precipitation events. analyses confirm previous findings that, although representation improved, effect increasing 12 spacing is, comparison, small seasons outside mountainous coastal regions. Our results provide adequate end users scale.

Язык: Английский

---

CH2018 – National climate scenarios for Switzerland: How to construct consistent multi-model projections from ensembles of opportunity

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 20, С. 100196 - 100196

Опубликована: Ноя. 20, 2020

The latest Swiss Climate Scenarios (CH2018), released in November 2018, consist of several datasets derived through various methods that provide robust and relevant information on climate change Switzerland. scenarios build upon the regional model projections for Europe produced internationally coordinated downscaling effort EURO-CORDEX. simulations from EURO-CORDEX at two spatial horizontal resolutions, global models, three different emission scenarios. Even with this unique dataset scenarios, a number practical challenges regarding consistent interpretation ensemble arise. Here we present methodological chain employed CH2018 order to generate multi-model is across used as basis deriving products. steps involve thorough evaluation full ensemble, removal doubtful potentially erroneous simulations, time-shift approach account an equal each scenario, combination resolutions. Each component cascade processing associated uncertainty eventually contributes overall scientific scenario We comparison assessment uncertainties these individual effects relate them probabilistic projections. It shown are generally supported by results other sources. Thus, currently best available future estimates

Язык: Английский

---

Extreme wind projections over Europe from the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 33, С. 100363 - 100363

Опубликована: Авг. 7, 2021

Extreme weather events represent one of the most visible and immediate hazards to society. Many these types phenomena are projected increase in intensity, duration or frequency as climate warms. Of extreme winds among damaging historically over Europe yet assessments their future changes remain fraught with uncertainty. This uncertainty arises due both rare nature wind fact that model unable faithfully them. Here we take advantage a 15 member ensemble high resolution Euro-CORDEX simulations (∼12 km) investigate using peaks-over-threshold approach. Additionally show – despite lingering deficiencies inadequate observational coverage there is clear added value higher coarser counterparts. Further, spatial heterogeneity highly localised well captured. Effects such orographic interactions, drag urban areas, even individual storm tracks oceans clearly visible. As also exhibit strong heterogeneity. These results emphasise need for careful case-by-case treatment analysis, especially when done adaptation decision making context. However, more general picture increases return period (i.e. frequent) episodes Northern, Central Southern throughout 21st century. While models continue improve representation winds, improved desperately needed obtain robust elsewhere.

Язык: Английский

---