Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(9), С. 592 - 609

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 8(3)

Опубликована: Март 11, 2021

Abstract Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted minimizing negative societal economic impacts. Forecasts daily seasonal scale vital for early warning, estimation event frequency hydraulic design, long‐term projections developing adaptation future conditions. All three types predictions—forecasts, estimates, projections—typically treat droughts floods independently, even though both extremes can be studied using related approaches have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common drought flood prediction their joint assessment (b) discuss tractable tackle these We group into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling prediction, human–water interactions. Data‐related include data availability definition. Process‐related the multivariate spatial characteristics extremes, non‐stationarities, changes in extremes. Modeling arise analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, modeling. Challenges with respect interactions lie establishing links impacts, representing interactions, science communication. potential ways tackling including exploiting new sources, studying a framework, influences compounding drivers, continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one several will improve predictions help minimize impacts extreme events. This article is categorized under: Science Water >

Язык: Английский

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Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 25(7), С. 3897 - 3935

Опубликована: Июль 7, 2021

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these are evolving likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under influence multiple drivers changes in climate, land cover, other human factors. Methods analysing hydroclimatic advanced considerably recent decades. Here we provide a review drivers, metrics, methods detection, attribution, management, projection nonstationary extremes. We discuss issues uncertainty associated with approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, incomplete representation sources modelling frameworks), examine empirical simulation-based frameworks analysis extremes, identify gaps future research.

Язык: Английский

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Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 9(11)

Опубликована: Окт. 25, 2021

Abstract Compound weather and climate events are combinations of drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods model outputs. Recently, aid development research on events, four event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned , (b) multivariate (c) temporally compounding (d) spatially events. However, guidelines how study these still lacking. Here, we consider case studies, each associated with specific type question, illustrate key elements (e.g., analytical tools relevant physical effects) can be identified. These studies show impacts crops from hot dry summers exacerbated by preconditioning effects bright springs. Assessing coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) considering dynamics non‐stationary process. For instance, future mean sea‐level rise will lead emergence concurrent fluvial extremes, enhancing In Portugal, deep‐landslides caused temporal clusters moderate precipitation Finally, crop yield failures France Germany strongly correlated, threatening European food security through effects. analyses allow identifying general recommendations studying Overall, our insights serve as blueprint analysis across disciplines sectors.

Язык: Английский

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Joint Trends in Flood Magnitudes and Spatial Extents Across Europe

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 47(7)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2020

The magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes the spatial coverage or extent individual has not clear. We analyze flood and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across over past five decades classify each based on antecedent weather conditions. find positive correlations between 95% stations. In central British Isles, association increasing trends is due a magnitude-extent correlation precipitation soil moisture along shift generating processes. highlights importance transnational risk management.

Язык: Английский

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Global Increases in Compound Flood‐Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 49(8)

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2022

Under global warming, a novel category of extreme events has become increasingly apparent, where flood and hot extremes occur in rapid succession, causing significant damages to infrastructure ecosystems. However, these bivariate compound flood-hot (CFH) hazards have not been comprehensively examined at the scale, their evolution under climate warming remains unstudied. Here, we present first picture projected changes CFH by using cascade modeling chain CMIP6 models, satellite reanalysis data sets, bias correction, hydrological models. We find an increasing percentage floods will be accompanied change; joint return periods CFHs are decrease globally, particularly tropics. These decreasing largely driven indicate likely increase hazards, ultimately highlight urgent need conduct adaptation planning for future risks.

Язык: Английский

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Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(12), С. 1160 - 1167

Опубликована: Ноя. 28, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 23, 2023

Abstract Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed presence anomalies Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow during 1960-2010 to show that shifts generation processes contribute more occurrence regional than changes extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil wet events by 5% increased periods Atlantic region, an opposite Mediterranean region flood-poor but will likely singular floods occur often. Flood driven changing Europe may further intensify a warming should be considered estimation management.

Язык: Английский

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Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface Processes

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 47(13)

Опубликована: Июнь 10, 2020

Abstract Floods often affect large regions and cause adverse societal impacts. Regional flood hazard risk assessments therefore require a realistic representation of spatial dependencies to avoid the overestimation or underestimation risk. However, it is not yet well understood how dependence, that is, degree co‐occurrence floods at different locations, varies in space time which processes influence strength this dependence. We identify United States with seasonally similar behavior analyze governing find dependence regionally generally strongest winter spring weakest summer fall. Moreover, we land‐surface are crucial shaping spatiotemporal characteristics events. conclude regional seasonal variations must be considered when conducting current future assessments.

Язык: Английский

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Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 25(3), С. 1347 - 1364

Опубликована: Март 19, 2021

Abstract. Recent studies have shown evidence of increasing and decreasing trends for average floods flood quantiles across Europe. Studies attributing observed changes in peaks to their drivers mostly focused on the behaviour, without distinguishing small large floods. This paper proposes a new framework potential drivers, as function return period (T), regional context. We assume follow non-stationary Gumbel distribution, where median 100-year growth factor are used parameters. They allowed vary time between catchments quantified by covariates. The elasticities with respect contributions estimated Bayesian inference. prior distributions hydrological reasoning from literature. attribution model is applied European covariate data aims at trend patterns specific different periods scale. analyse discharge records 2370 hydrometric stations Europe over 1960–2010. Extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture snowmelt change considered this study. Results show that, northwestern Europe, extreme precipitation mainly contributes both (q2) (q100), while secondary importance. In southern contribute changes, relative importance depends period. Antecedent main contributor q2, two larger (T>10 years) comparable. eastern drives q2 q100.

Язык: Английский

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