Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(3), С. 259 - 272

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Assessing the role of compound drought and heatwave events on unprecedented 2020 wildfires in the Pantanal

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 17(1), С. 015005 - 015005

Опубликована: Дек. 23, 2021

Abstract The year 2020 had the most catastrophic fire season over last two decades in Pantanal, which led to outstanding environmental impacts. Indeed, much of Pantanal has been affected by severe dry conditions since 2019, with evidence 2020’s drought being extreme and widespread ever recorded 70 years. Although it is unquestionable that this mega-drought contributed significantly increase risk, so far, analyzed at univariate level a single climate event, not considering co-occurrence persistent temperatures soil dryness conditions. Here, we show similarly other areas globe, influence land-atmosphere feedbacks decisively simultaneous occurrence hot spells (HPs), exacerbating risk. ideal synoptic for strong atmospheric heating large evaporation rates were present, particular during HPs, when maximum temperature was, on average, 6 °C above normal. short span period those compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) events accounted 55% burned area 2020. vulnerability northern forested was higher than areas, revealing synergistic effect between fuel availability weather-hydrological Accordingly, where limiting factor, activity tends be more modelled CDHW events. Our work advances beyond an isolated event-level basis towards cascading natural hazards approach, simultaneously estimating contribution heatwaves fuelling outbreaks such as Thus, these findings are relevant within broader context, driving mechanisms apply across ecosystems, implying flammability further efforts monitoring predicting

Язык: Английский

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Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 120(28)

Опубликована: Июль 3, 2023

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, severity) continued anthropogenic warming relative baseline recent observed period (1982 2019). combine weekly information for 26 climate divisions across globe, employing historical model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically trends are revealed both simulated (2020 2099). East Africa, North Australia, America, Central Asia, Europe, Southeastern South America show greatest increase frequency through late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater occurrence, while Northern severity. Regional warmings play role changes most regions. These findings implications minimizing of extreme developing adaptation mitigation policies cope with risk water, food sectors critical geographical

Язык: Английский

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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 235, С. 104241 - 104241

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Global Increases in Compound Flood‐Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 49(8)

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2022

Under global warming, a novel category of extreme events has become increasingly apparent, where flood and hot extremes occur in rapid succession, causing significant damages to infrastructure ecosystems. However, these bivariate compound flood-hot (CFH) hazards have not been comprehensively examined at the scale, their evolution under climate warming remains unstudied. Here, we present first picture projected changes CFH by using cascade modeling chain CMIP6 models, satellite reanalysis data sets, bias correction, hydrological models. We find an increasing percentage floods will be accompanied change; joint return periods CFHs are decrease globally, particularly tropics. These decreasing largely driven indicate likely increase hazards, ultimately highlight urgent need conduct adaptation planning for future risks.

Язык: Английский

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Deep learning in hydrology and water resources disciplines: concepts, methods, applications, and research directions

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 628, С. 130458 - 130458

Опубликована: Ноя. 15, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Global Increases in Lethal Compound Heat Stress: Hydrological Drought Hazards Under Climate Change

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 49(18)

Опубликована: Сен. 20, 2022

Abstract Previous studies seldom consider humidity when examining heat‐related extremes, and none have explored the effects of on concurrent extremes high heat stress low river streamflow. Here, we present first global picture projected changes in compound lethal ( T h )‐drought hazards (CHD) across 11,637 catchments. Our observational datasets show that atmospheric conditions (e.g., energy vapor flux) play an important role constraining (32% ± 11%) yields a higher coincidence rate CHD than wet‐bulb temperature (28% 11%), driven by lower relative (RH) thus air dryness extremes. large model ensemble projects 10‐fold intensification bivariate risks 2071–2100, mainly increases Future declines RH, wind, snow, precipitation many regions are likely to exacerbate such water weather‐related drought CHD).

Язык: Английский

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Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean

Earth System Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(2), С. 749 - 777

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2022

Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to impacts on society and ecosystems, is key supporting future risk reduction preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview the state art, knowledge gaps open questions in study weather events over vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region situated transition zone between subtropical mid-latitude climates. The large-scale atmospheric circulation interaction with regional synoptic systems (i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian “Sharav” Lows) high-pressure mainly govern weather. Complex orographic features further play important role generation Most events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods windstorms, are associated Lows or active whereas heat waves related either Troughs sub-tropical summer Sharav Low during springtime. In decades, droughts projected significantly increase both frequency intensity. Changes precipitation may vary sign magnitude depending scale, severity interest. There still relatively large uncertainties concerning changes windstorms compound extremes, as these types received comparatively little attention literature. We identify that relate societal These effects have mortality, morbidity infrastructure Research currently limited this context, recommend strengthening database analyzed case studies. trust can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary international collaboration (in spite political unrest).

Язык: Английский

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How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(15)

Опубликована: Авг. 8, 2023

Abstract The 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity return period (RP) compared it with past mega CDHWs in hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for CDHW event, which was unprecedented Northern western parts of RPs 354, 420, 280 years, respectively. reduced soil moisture due precipitation deficits high contributed persistence drought, creating positive feedback loop dry soils led even drier conditions. In light our findings, is evident that global warming poses increased risks events, are likely increase.

Язык: Английский

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A Multivariate Flash Drought Indicator for Identifying Global Hotspots and Associated Climate Controls

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 49(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2022

Abstract The significant impact of flash droughts (FDs) on society can vary based a combination FD characteristics (event counts, mean severity, and rate intensification), which is largely unexplored. We employed root‐zone soil‐moisture for 1980–2018 to calculate the integrated them formulate novel multivariate indicator mapping global hotspot regions. potential influence climate (i.e., anomalies, aridity, evaporative fractions) land‐climate feedbacks evolution investigated. Our results indicate that precipitation primary driver evolution, while effect temperature, vapor pressure deficit, interaction varies across divisions after onset events. magnitude decreases with increased it in humid regimes, underscoring importance water energy supply as limiting factors regulating FD‐risk.

Язык: Английский

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