Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(12), С. 5301 - 5369

Опубликована: Ноя. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Язык: Английский

---

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 29(5), С. 1359 - 1376

Опубликована: Дек. 12, 2022

Abstract Over the last decades, natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in regimes may compromise forest functioning and continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central many policies, we lack long‐term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding dynamics, modeling them, developing adaptive management strategies. Here, present a unique database >170,000 records ground‐based observations from 1950 2019. Reported confirm significant increase 34 countries, causing an average 43.8 million m 3 disturbed timber volume per year over 70‐year study period. This value likely conservative estimate due under‐reporting, especially small‐scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques assessing magnitude unreported disturbances, which estimated be between 8.6 18.3 /year. In 20 years, disturbances accounted 16% mean annual harvest Europe. Wind was most important agent period (46% total damage), followed by fire (24%) bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle doubled its share damage years. Forest can profoundly impact (e.g., mitigation), affect regional resource consequently disrupt planning objectives markets. conclude that adaptation changing must placed at core policy debate. Furthermore, coherent homogeneous monitoring system urgently Europe, better observe respond ongoing changes regimes.

Язык: Английский

---

Record-high CO ₂ emissions from boreal fires in 2021

Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 379(6635), С. 912 - 917

Опубликована: Март 2, 2023

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those tropical forests, although one of the most extensive biomes on Earth experiencing fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions forests. rapidly expanding into with emerging warmer drier seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% global carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons carbon) 2021, by far highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American Eurasian synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers extreme fires stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Язык: Английский

---

The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 3(8), С. 516 - 532

Опубликована: Июль 7, 2022

Язык: Английский

---

Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(8), С. 518 - 534

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2023

Язык: Английский

---

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 29(6), С. 1648 - 1659

Опубликована: Дек. 14, 2022

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred between 1986 2020, we find power-law relationship maximum size area burned, indicating large fires contribute disproportionally to activity Europe. We further show robust positive correlation summer vapor pressure deficit both (R2 = .19) burn severity .12). Europe's regimes are thus highly sensitive changes future climate, with the probability for extreme more than doubling end century. Our results suggest change will challenge current management approaches could undermine ability forests provide ecosystem services society.

Язык: Английский

---

Towards an Integrated Approach to Wildfire Risk Assessment: When, Where, What and How May the Landscapes Burn

Fire, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(5), С. 215 - 215

Опубликована: Май 22, 2023

This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), extent which may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), potential losses resilience those (vulnerability). is followed by brief discussion how these can be integrated connected mitigation adaptation efforts. We then operational systems in place various parts world. Finally, we propose an system being developed under FirEUrisk European project, as example different components (including danger, exposure vulnerability) generated combined into synthetic indices provide more comprehensive but also consider where on what variables reduction efforts should stressed envisage policies better adapted future regimes. Climate socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even critical environmental hazard; extreme fires observed many areas world regularly experience fire, yet activity increasing were previously rare. To mitigate negative impacts responsible for managing must leverage information available through assessment process, along improved understanding targeted improve optimize strategies risk.

Язык: Английский

---

Anthropogenic climate change impacts exacerbate summer forest fires in California

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 120(25)

Опубликована: Июнь 12, 2023

Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate fivefold increase burned area (BA) forests northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative 1971 1995. While the higher temperature increased dryness been suggested be leading causes of BA, extent which BA changes are due natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved. Here, we develop climate-driven model evolution combine it with natural-only historical simulations assess importance on BA. Our results that nearly all observed is as accounting for forcing yield 172% (range 84 310%) more than only. We detect signal combined emerging 2001 no detectable influence alone. In addition, even when considering fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks, 3 52% last decades expected next (2031 2050), highlighting need proactive adaptations.

Язык: Английский

---

Influences of wildfire on the forest ecosystem and climate change: A comprehensive study

Environmental Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 240, С. 117537 - 117537

Опубликована: Окт. 30, 2023

Язык: Английский

---

Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 25, 2024

Abstract Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term “suppression bias” and use a simulation model highlight how bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation climate change. We illustrate attempting suppress all necessarily means fires will with severe less diverse ecological impacts, burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from or Over human lifespan, modeled exceed those change alone, suggesting may exert significant underappreciated influence on patterns fire Managing safely low moderate conditions thus critical tool address growing crisis.

Язык: Английский

---