Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025
Язык: Английский
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(8), С. 518 - 534
Опубликована: Июль 25, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
112
Fire, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(5), С. 215 - 215
Опубликована: Май 22, 2023
This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), extent which may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), potential losses resilience those (vulnerability). is followed by brief discussion how these can be integrated connected mitigation adaptation efforts. We then operational systems in place various parts world. Finally, we propose an system being developed under FirEUrisk European project, as example different components (including danger, exposure vulnerability) generated combined into synthetic indices provide more comprehensive but also consider where on what variables reduction efforts should stressed envisage policies better adapted future regimes. Climate socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even critical environmental hazard; extreme fires observed many areas world regularly experience fire, yet activity increasing were previously rare. To mitigate negative impacts responsible for managing must leverage information available through assessment process, along improved understanding targeted improve optimize strategies risk.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
70
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 41(4), С. 565 - 571
Опубликована: Ноя. 17, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
55
The Lancet Public Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 8(12), С. e978 - e995
Опубликована: Ноя. 18, 2023
With growing health risks from climate change and a trend of increasing carbon emissions coal, it is time for China to take action. The rising frequency severity extreme weather events in China, such as record-high temperatures, low rainfall, severe droughts, floods many regions (along with the compound ripple effects these on human health) have underlined urgent need health-centred rebound country's coal consumption observed 2022 reflected great challenge faced by terms its phase-down, over-riding gains reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Timely adequate responses will not only reduce or avoid impacts climate-related hazards but can also protect essential infrastructures disruptions caused weather. Health are inextricably linked, necessitating high prioritisation adaptation mitigation efforts. 2023 report Lancet Countdown continues track progress while now attributing activities providing examples feasible effective solutions. This fourth iteration was spearheaded regional centre Asia, based at Tsinghua University Beijing, China. Progress monitored across 28 indicators five domains: impacts, exposures, vulnerability (section 1); different elements action, including adaption 2) mitigation, their implications 3); economics finance 4); public political engagement 5). compiled contribution 76 experts 26 institutions both within outside impending global stocktake UN Framework Convention Climate Change 28th Conference Parties (COP28), initiative early warning systems (which pledged ensure world protected end 2027), China's action plans air pollutants GHGs illustrate that has moved talk concrete plans. These initiatives could deliver major benefits, none them explicitly list policy target indicator. results guide health-focused interventions. first Day climate-health ministerial meeting be hosted COP28 underline mainstream agenda. arising human-induced change, production-based consumption-based CO2 ambient particulate matter (PM2·5) (indicator 4.2.4) indicate identifying contributions change. Early 2.4) city-level comfort index provide bottom-up practices. record-breaking heat droughts were associated increased adverse outcomes. Wildfire exposure 54% 1.2.1) compared historical baseline heatwave-related mortality 342% 1.1.1). Heat-related work loss 24% 1.1.2), safe outdoor physical activity 67%, resulting hours available decreased 9·6% 1.1.3). Human-caused responsible 49·4% mortality, 30·9% heat-related labour productivity loss, 98·8% populations affected drought, 7·6% flood previous 20 years. economic broke all records, costs reaching 1·91% gross domestic product (GDP; US$313·5 billion; indicator 4.1.2). Future concerns must overlooked: case future sea level rise, ratio exposed total population coastal provinces expected 7·7% 2050 12·9% 2100 under emission scenarios 1.4)—putting risk erosion, floods, water land salinification, harm infrastructure. Growing capacity building adequately respond emergencies 2.1.1), expanding coverage 2.3), improvements cross-sectoral information sharing 2.2) exemplify steady adaption, which involves imminent already occurred. In response use air-conditioning increased, protection. However, this contributed GHG Meanwhile, there no substantial increase urban green space coverage, sustainable cooling, delivering direct benefits people's mental health. Transitions energy system coupled quality control measures considerably lowered pollution past 10 Indeed, between 2015 2020, PM2·5 reduction resulted 282 400 deaths avoided, 1·5% less emitted than 2021 result reductions industrial processes. electricity generation hydropower other low-carbon sources threatened 2022, power used fill gap secure supply. Consequently, since 2011, grown second largest rate (4·3%), posing persistent related pollution. Hence, an diversify mix access diverse renewable stable alternatives generation. Without focus, bypassing transition getting stuck high-carbon entrapment. becoming increasingly visible, grew substantially Weibo among individual users Baidu. professional channels newspapers, academic journals, government websites change–health nexus remained practically unchanged over 2 years, rarely mentioned prioritised current actions. Current mainly meteorological signals, heat, ignoring implications. Although section National Adaptation Strategy 2035, absence stand-alone nationwide strategy priority (media, academic, government) climate-only items very slowly implying Since reports been taking stock reporting findings helped inform accelerate further progress. Issues around prominent relevant policies national, regional, sectoral levels, content annual working priorities Healthy overall so far poor. Therefore, we present evidence-informed recommendations harness opportunities safer, healthy people China: Investing infrastructure promote diversity resilience. Research development efforts grid integration storage enhance efficacy, reliability, affordability technologies, making more accessible widespread adoption. By prioritising investments, cut long-term reliance power, pave way cleaner, mitigates fosters healthier environment generations. capitalising interconnections improved quality, health, environmental wellbeing, build resilient communities generations come. Transitioning cleaner sources, promoting efficiency sectors, implementing transportation components strategy. addition, imposing stringent standards industries, reforestation conservation actions, agricultural practices contribute pollutants. should develop health-oriented accounts hazards. Such enable issuing warnings when characteristics conditions implementation targeted preventive actions concerns. Creating advanced provides comprehensive protection vulnerable populations, older people, children, pregnant women, patients suffering chronic diseases, help toll Characterising interconnected complex nature events, heatwaves, cyclones health-protective mechanisms protecting crucial infrastructure, ecosystems susceptible cascading effects. charaterising interactions sectors water, energy, agriculture enables strategies. There empirical research strategies enhanced systems, resilience, community preparedness plans, nature-based research, understanding mitigate effects, safeguard lives, nurture societies. guidelines specific various stakeholders, local governments, health-care communities, individuals. Local governments launch maps reflect contexts. Health-care protocols training programmes challenges. Communities empowered through education awareness campaigns climate-resilient populations. Individuals provided practical guidance adapting lifestyles tailoring actors, foster coordinated approach adaptation, ensuring wellbeing resilience face changing climate. moment; Countdown's helps identify define accelerated Looking back causes highlights urgently accelerating Extreme stifling work, positive reaction speed up measures, lead zero-carbon transition, immediate people.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
51
Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 18(6)
Опубликована: Апрель 10, 2024
Abstract Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies play an essential role in achieving Net Zero Emissions targets. Considering the lack of timely reviews on recent advancements promising CCUS technologies, it is crucial to provide a prompt review advances understand current research gaps pertained its industrial application. To that end, this first summarized developmental history large-scale demonstrations. Then, based visually bibliometric analysis, carbon capture remains hotspot development. Noting materials applied process determines performance. As result, state-of-the-art emerging were comprehensively discussed. Gaps between state-of-art ideal counterpart are analyzed, insights into needs such as material design, optimization, environmental impact, technical economic assessments provided.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
45
PNAS Nexus, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(4)
Опубликована: Март 28, 2024
Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth these interwoven emergencies underscores urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, triggering irreversible changes biophysical systems that underpin Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences actions disproportionately borne vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine terrestrial biomes face tipping points, while escalating challenges to food water access foreshadow bleak outlook security. Against this backdrop Earth at risk, call response centered on decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, implementing regenerative practices natural resource management. We elimination detrimental subsidies, promotion equitable development, transformative financial support lower income nations. A paradigm shift must occur replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism economic model prioritizes sustainability, resilience, justice. advocate cultural elevates kinship nature communal well-being, underpinned recognition finite resources interconnectedness its inhabitants. imperative is clear: navigate away from precipice, collectively harness political will, resources, societal values steer toward future where progress does not come cost integrity social equity.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
38
Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 633(8031), С. 835 - 839
Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2024
Abstract The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to previous four decades 1 . Here, we quantify carbon emissions from these May September on basis of inverse modelling satellite monoxide observations. We find that magnitude is 647 TgC (570–727 TgC), comparable fossil fuel large nations, only India, China USA releasing per year 2 widespread hot–dry weather was a principal driver fire spread, being warmest driest since at least 1980 3 Although temperatures were relative historical record, climate projections indicate are likely be typical during 2050s, even under moderate mitigation scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP 2–4.5) 4 Such conditions drive increased activity suppress uptake by forests, adding concerns about long-term durability forests as sink 5–8
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
33
Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(8), С. 3601 - 3685
Опубликована: Авг. 13, 2024
Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
29
Опубликована: Июнь 6, 2024
Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Emissions atmospheric concentrations of CH4 continue increase, maintaining as second most human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance compared CO2 temperature change related its shorter lifetime, stronger radiative effect, acceleration growth rate over past decade, causes which are still debated. Two major challenges reducing uncertainties factors explaining well-observed arise from diverse, geographically overlapping sources uncertain magnitude temporal destruction by short-lived highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium multi-disciplinary scientists under umbrella Global Carbon Project improve, synthesise update regularly stimulate new research on cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), present here third version living review paper dedicated decadal budget, integrating results top-down emission estimates (based in-situ observing satellite (GOSAT) observations an ensemble inverse-model results) bottom-up process-based models estimating land-surface emissions chemistry, inventories anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). We recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period full datasets available), previous 2000–2009 year 2020. revision this edition benefits progress inland freshwater with better accounting lakes ponds, reservoirs, streams rivers. This also reduces double across wetland and, first time, includes estimate potential that exists (average 23 Tg yr-1). Bottom-up approaches show combined average 248 [159–369] yr-1 decade. Natural fluxes perturbed human activities through climate, eutrophication, land use. In estimate, component contributing emissions. Newly available gridded products allowed us derive almost complete latitudinal regional based approaches. For estimated inversions (top-down) be 575 (range 553–586, corresponding minimum maximum model ensemble). Of amount, 369 or ~65 % attributed direct fossil, agriculture waste biomass burning 350–391 63–68 %). period, give slightly lower total than 2010–2019, 32 9–40). Since 2012, trends been tracking scenarios assume no minimal mitigation policies proposed Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (shared socio-economic SSP5 SSP3). methods suggest 16 (94 yr-1) larger (669 yr-1, range 512–849) inversion period. discrepancy between budgets has greatly reduced differences (167 156 respectively), time uncertainty overlap. distribution inversion-based indicates predominance tropical southern hemisphere (~65 <30° N) mid (30° N–60° N, ~30 emissions) high-northern latitudes (60° N–90° ~4 emissions). similar though contributions latitudes, smaller tropics inversions. Although bottom-up, source attributable natural especially those wetlands freshwaters. identify five priorities improving budget: i) producing global, high-resolution map water-saturated soils inundated areas emitting robust classification different types ecosystems; ii) further development inland-water emissions; iii) intensification at local (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, imagery pointing capabilities) scales (surface networks remote sensing measurements satellites) constrain both inversions; iv) improvements transport representation photochemical sinks inversions, v) integration 3D variational systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such ethane well information super-emitters detected (mainly oil sector but coal, landfills) improve partitioning. data presented can downloaded https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez al., 2024).
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
24
Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 386(6719)
Опубликована: Окт. 17, 2024
Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that difficult to untangle. We use machine learning systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed rapidly increasing emissions extratropical linked climate change, offset declining tropical pyromes during 2001 2023. Annual tripled one pyrome due weather, compounded increased cover productivity. contributed a 60% increase carbon from globally. Our results highlight the vulnerability of forests their stocks disturbance under change.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
23