Increasing Risks of Future Compound Climate Extremes With Warming Over Global Land Masses

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(9)

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2023

Abstract Compound climate extremes (here referred to compound dry–hot events and pluvial–hot events) result in devastating disasters which threaten water‐food‐energy security. However, a warming scenario, the risk of occurrence, quantification uncertainty, associated drivers extremes—particularly events—have not been fully explored. By leveraging model large ensembles, it is revealed that projected increase 2–3 times over most global land masses future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing compared with historical forcing. Increased risks are mainly attributed changes temperature dependence between precipitation temperature, while change contributing these two exhibits approximately spatial complementary. In world, hot spots lie Europe, South Africa, Amazon, those mostly eastern USA, southern Asia, Australia, central Africa. These findings help stakeholders decision makers develop package adaptation strategies manage mitigate extremes.

Язык: Английский

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Increased frequency and severity of global compound dry and heat wave events in a daily scale

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 132857 - 132857

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Urbanization-Induced Increases in Heavy Precipitation are Magnified by Moist Heatwaves in an Urban Agglomeration of East China

Journal of Climate, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 36(2), С. 693 - 709

Опубликована: Окт. 5, 2022

Abstract Heavy precipitation (HP) events can be preceded by moist heatwaves (HWs; i.e., hot and humid weather), both intensified urbanization. However, the effect of HWs on increasing urban HP remains unknown. Based statistical analyses daily weather observations ERA5 reanalysis data, we herein investigate urban-intensified dividing summer into NoHW- HW-preceded in Yangtze River delta (YRD) agglomeration China. During period 1961–2019, YRD has experienced more frequent, longer-lasting, stronger intense season (i.e., June–August), urbanization contributed to these increases (by 22.66%–37.50%). In contrast, effects are almost absent if remove from all events. Our results show that urbanization-induced associated with, magnified by, areas region. Moist conducive an unstable atmosphere stormy weather, they also enhance heat island intensity, driving over areas. Significance Statement The contribution heavy been widely reported previous studies. (hot extremes); however, it is unknown whether HP. We choose explore this question find contributes frequency, duration, maximum cumulative intensity season. signal not detectable other words, play a key role magnifying Given projected continue expanding occur with frequency future, water cycle merits further investigation.

Язык: Английский

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Greater Flash Flood Risks From Hourly Precipitation Extremes Preconditioned by Heatwaves in the Yangtze River Valley

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 49(18)

Опубликована: Сен. 20, 2022

Abstract Compared to singular hot or wet extremes, their occurrence in close sequence might cause larger impacts, because the initial hazard either increases exposure/vulnerability of affected communities next physically worsens second hazard. Heatwave‐preconditioned hourly precipitation extremes Yangtze River Valley are typical latter situation. Fueled by soaring convective energy after heatwaves' passage, heavier, intensifying faster, and more concentrated during afternoon evening, compared those not proceeded heatwaves. Consequently, flash flood‐producing events (e.g., 50 mm/hr stronger) account for fractions preconditioned than non‐preconditioned group, with spectrum difference further exaggerated warming. This drives frequency increase potentially high‐impact several‐fold expected from widely‐adopted univariate perspective. These results point heatwave‐preconditioned as an emerging climate change carrying greater flood risks.

Язык: Английский

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Growing Threats From Swings Between Hot and Wet Extremes in a Warmer World

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(14)

Опубликована: Июль 18, 2023

Abstract The abrupt alternation between hot and wet extremes can lead to more severe societal impacts than isolated extremes. However, despite an understanding of separately, their temporally compounding characteristics are not well examined yet. Our study presents a comprehensive assessment successive heat‐pluvial pluvial‐heat events globally. We find that these within week occur every 6–7 years on average warm seasons during 1956–2015, about 15% often would be expected by chance, they have significant increase in frequency 22% per decade due warming. further investigate the role vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (pluvial‐heat) linked negative (positive) VPD anomalies. results statistically based moving‐blocks bootstrap resampling field significance tests, highlighting methods' importance robustly identifying compound under autocorrelation multiple‐testing conditions.

Язык: Английский

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Spatial-temporal evolution and intrinsic drivers of compound drought and heatwave events in Mainland China

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 948, С. 174834 - 174834

Опубликована: Июль 19, 2024

Язык: Английский

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How does the Net primary productivity respond to the extreme climate under elevation constraints in mountainous areas of Yunnan, China?

Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 138, С. 108817 - 108817

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2022

Mountain ecosystems regulate global terrestrial carbon dynamics and are sensitive to changes of extreme climate. To discuss climate's impact on productivity vegetation by using the elevation change as a binding force can provide new reference for sink management ecosystem in alpine regions. The CASA model Rclimdex1.0 were used calculate NPP 16 climate extremes indices, respectively, from 1982 2019 Yunnan. response characteristics regional calculated unary regression analysis, correlation geographic detector, relative importance analysis. results follows: (1) turning point various types appeared late 1980s (2) between precipitation index is more dependent than temperature indices. (3) Extreme indices middle high-elevation areas. As result, increased 10% after compared with that before point. (4) In range Ⅰ-IV (76–4000 m), proportion double-factor increase was 30%, while 4000–5000 m, <10%. (5) primary controlling factors Ⅰ﹣III (76–3000 m) R25mm, R10mm, respectively. increasing IV﹣Ⅵ (4000–6000 SU25, TR20, FD0, This study provides insights into perspective elevation, emphasizing ecological environment regions which response.

Язык: Английский

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Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

Advances in Climate Change Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(3), С. 547 - 556

Опубликована: Май 25, 2024

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave‒drought extreme events (CHDEs), driven by global warming, present formidable challenges to ecosystems, residential livelihoods, economic conditions. However, uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity. By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961–2022 climate models (GCMs) based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, evolution patterns were compared examined among three sub-catchments Yangtze River Basin, return periods CHDE 2050s 2100s projected. findings indicate that during 2022 period was warmest driest recorded 1961–2022, with precipitation less than 154.5 mm a mean maximum temperature 3.4 °C higher average 1981–2010, whereas characteristics exhibited temporal spatial variation. In July–August 2022, most notable feature its extremeness since 1961, ∼ 200-year upstream, 80-year midstream, 40-year downstream, respectively. 2050, witnessed would likely be reduced one-third. Looking towards 2100, under highest emission scenario SSP585, it projected substantially increase frequency CHDEs, one-third upstream as well halved midstream. These provide valuable changing risks associated forthcoming extremes, emphasizing urgency addressing these management sustainable development.

Язык: Английский

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Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

Abstract The increase in record‐breaking extreme events caused by climate change poses a threat to human health and well‐being. Understanding the future impacts of such on global populations can provide decision‐making support for policies aiming mitigate change. Here, we investigated population exposure eight indices drivers trajectories based National Aeronautics Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 projection data under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios at spatial resolution 0.25° × 0.25°. results show that mid‐twenty‐first century, most regions worldwide, especially Africa South America, will continue experience temperatures compound drought heatwaves (CDHWs). Regarding exposure, SSP3‐7.0 late twenty‐first mean value multimodel median expected annual (EAE) all temperature CDHW reaches 8.12 billion persons per year. Population hotspots be concentrated Central Africa, Asia, Southeast East mostly developing countries, where 55.01%–87.42% EAE is found. are spatially heterogeneous. probability contributes more than growth world except Middle East, Africa. These findings reveal probabilities exposures extremes, which inform understanding intersections between risk management.

Язык: Английский

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Uncertainty separation of drought projection in the 21st century using SMILEs and CMIP6

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 628, С. 130497 - 130497

Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2023

Язык: Английский

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