Increasing Risks of Future Compound Climate Extremes With Warming Over Global Land Masses

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

Abstract Compound climate extremes (here referred to compound dry–hot events and pluvial–hot events) result in devastating disasters which threaten water‐food‐energy security. However, a warming scenario, the risk of occurrence, quantification uncertainty, associated drivers extremes—particularly events—have not been fully explored. By leveraging model large ensembles, it is revealed that projected increase 2–3 times over most global land masses future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing compared with historical forcing. Increased risks are mainly attributed changes temperature dependence between precipitation temperature, while change contributing these two exhibits approximately spatial complementary. In world, hot spots lie Europe, South Africa, Amazon, those mostly eastern USA, southern Asia, Australia, central Africa. These findings help stakeholders decision makers develop package adaptation strategies manage mitigate extremes.

Language: Английский

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Greater Flash Flood Risks From Hourly Precipitation Extremes Preconditioned by Heatwaves in the Yangtze River Valley

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(18)

Published: Sept. 20, 2022

Abstract Compared to singular hot or wet extremes, their occurrence in close sequence might cause larger impacts, because the initial hazard either increases exposure/vulnerability of affected communities next physically worsens second hazard. Heatwave‐preconditioned hourly precipitation extremes Yangtze River Valley are typical latter situation. Fueled by soaring convective energy after heatwaves' passage, heavier, intensifying faster, and more concentrated during afternoon evening, compared those not proceeded heatwaves. Consequently, flash flood‐producing events (e.g., 50 mm/hr stronger) account for fractions preconditioned than non‐preconditioned group, with spectrum difference further exaggerated warming. This drives frequency increase potentially high‐impact several‐fold expected from widely‐adopted univariate perspective. These results point heatwave‐preconditioned as an emerging climate change carrying greater flood risks.

Language: Английский

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Urbanization-Induced Increases in Heavy Precipitation are Magnified by Moist Heatwaves in an Urban Agglomeration of East China

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36(2), P. 693 - 709

Published: Oct. 5, 2022

Abstract Heavy precipitation (HP) events can be preceded by moist heatwaves (HWs; i.e., hot and humid weather), both intensified urbanization. However, the effect of HWs on increasing urban HP remains unknown. Based statistical analyses daily weather observations ERA5 reanalysis data, we herein investigate urban-intensified dividing summer into NoHW- HW-preceded in Yangtze River delta (YRD) agglomeration China. During period 1961–2019, YRD has experienced more frequent, longer-lasting, stronger intense season (i.e., June–August), urbanization contributed to these increases (by 22.66%–37.50%). In contrast, effects are almost absent if remove from all events. Our results show that urbanization-induced associated with, magnified by, areas region. Moist conducive an unstable atmosphere stormy weather, they also enhance heat island intensity, driving over areas. Significance Statement The contribution heavy been widely reported previous studies. (hot extremes); however, it is unknown whether HP. We choose explore this question find contributes frequency, duration, maximum cumulative intensity season. signal not detectable other words, play a key role magnifying Given projected continue expanding occur with frequency future, water cycle merits further investigation.

Language: Английский

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Growing Threats From Swings Between Hot and Wet Extremes in a Warmer World

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(14)

Published: July 18, 2023

Abstract The abrupt alternation between hot and wet extremes can lead to more severe societal impacts than isolated extremes. However, despite an understanding of separately, their temporally compounding characteristics are not well examined yet. Our study presents a comprehensive assessment successive heat‐pluvial pluvial‐heat events globally. We find that these within week occur every 6–7 years on average warm seasons during 1956–2015, about 15% often would be expected by chance, they have significant increase in frequency 22% per decade due warming. further investigate the role vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (pluvial‐heat) linked negative (positive) VPD anomalies. results statistically based moving‐blocks bootstrap resampling field significance tests, highlighting methods' importance robustly identifying compound under autocorrelation multiple‐testing conditions.

Language: Английский

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How does the Net primary productivity respond to the extreme climate under elevation constraints in mountainous areas of Yunnan, China?

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 138, P. 108817 - 108817

Published: April 1, 2022

Mountain ecosystems regulate global terrestrial carbon dynamics and are sensitive to changes of extreme climate. To discuss climate's impact on productivity vegetation by using the elevation change as a binding force can provide new reference for sink management ecosystem in alpine regions. The CASA model Rclimdex1.0 were used calculate NPP 16 climate extremes indices, respectively, from 1982 2019 Yunnan. response characteristics regional calculated unary regression analysis, correlation geographic detector, relative importance analysis. results follows: (1) turning point various types appeared late 1980s (2) between precipitation index is more dependent than temperature indices. (3) Extreme indices middle high-elevation areas. As result, increased 10% after compared with that before point. (4) In range Ⅰ-IV (76–4000 m), proportion double-factor increase was 30%, while 4000–5000 m, <10%. (5) primary controlling factors Ⅰ﹣III (76–3000 m) R25mm, R10mm, respectively. increasing IV﹣Ⅵ (4000–6000 SU25, TR20, FD0, This study provides insights into perspective elevation, emphasizing ecological environment regions which response.

Language: Английский

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Spatial-temporal evolution and intrinsic drivers of compound drought and heatwave events in Mainland China

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 948, P. 174834 - 174834

Published: July 19, 2024

Language: Английский

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Causality of compound extreme heat-precipitation events in Northeastern China

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 316, P. 107975 - 107975

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

Language: Английский

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Increased frequency and severity of global compound dry and heat wave events in a daily scale

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132857 - 132857

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin—South Asia

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: Feb. 12, 2025

Abstract Temporal compound events (TCEs), such as the consecutive occurrence of two complementary extremes hydrological spectrum (floods and droughts), exhibit a volatile cycle that exacerbate challenges associated with water resources management. This study makes use bias-corrected climate models output from three modeling experiments (CMIP6, CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE), to examine moderate extreme wet dry their temporal compounding over Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB), under low, medium, high emission scenarios for future periods (2040–2059 2080–2099). Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used quantify meteorological are main driver hydrologic floods droughts. The types TCEs considered in current wet-to-dry (W-to-D) dry-to-wet (D-to-W) adjacent month. Results indicate (1) warming conditions, expected become more frequent severe whereas duration exhibits distinct change signals depending on specific location. (2) basin prone D-to-W dominated southwest region, which was not found be hotspot historically neither nor events. (3) CORDEX CORDEX-CORE ensembles show varying no spatial pattern CMIP6 ensemble shows stronger divides region into parts, i.e., northeast southwest.

Language: Английский

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Changes in Compound Extreme Events and Their Impacts on Cropland Productivity in China, 1985–2019

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract While the influence of compound extreme events is gaining attention with advancing climate research, variations in their impacts on regional crop production require further exploration. Here, we primarily analyze changes hot‐dry and hot‐wet China from 1985 to 2019, based meteorological observations 686 stations. Then, contributions losses cropland net primary productivity (CNPP) are identified using gradient boosting Shapley additive explanations models. Results indicate that have become increasingly frequent, persistent, severe over past 35 years. With increasing risks events, greater CNPP observed northern regions compared southern regions. Throughout growing season, caused by initially increase, peak summer, then gradually decrease. influenced events. From north south, dominating shift sequentially daytime hot dry day‐night finally nighttime This study explores threats posed provides new insights into China, supporting climate‐adaptive agricultural development.

Language: Английский

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