Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 48(1), С. 519 - 548

Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Язык: Английский

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Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 8(9), С. 781 - 786

Опубликована: Авг. 15, 2018

Язык: Английский

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Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 151(3-4), С. 555 - 571

Опубликована: Ноя. 10, 2018

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement representation uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects probabilistic, based on ensembles model simulations. In face deep uncertainties, known limitations are becoming apparent. An alternative thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline' approach. We define storyline as physically self-consistent unfolding past events, or plausible future events pathways. No priori probability assessed; emphasis placed instead understanding driving factors involved, and plausibility those factors. introduce typology four reasons using storylines represent change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing an event-oriented rather than probabilistic manner, corresponds more directly how people perceive respond risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making allowing one work backward from particular vulnerability decision point, combining with other relevant address compound develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing basis partitioning uncertainty, thereby use credible regional models conditioned manner (iv) exploring boundaries plausibility, guarding against false precision surprise. Storylines also offer powerful way linking human change.

Язык: Английский

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Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(2), С. 107 - 122

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2021

Язык: Английский

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A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed

Nature, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 558(7708), С. 104 - 107

Опубликована: Май 25, 2018

Язык: Английский

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Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 25(7), С. 2325 - 2337

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2019

Abstract Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared impact, impact of excessive on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from insurance data that can reduce up −34% (−17 ± 3% average) States relative expected long‐term trend, comparable −37% loss by (−32 2% 1981 2016. Drought consistently decreases due water deficiency concurrent heat, with greater for rainfed wetter areas. Excessive have either negative or positive yield, its sign varies regionally. significantly cooler areas conjunction poorly drained soils, such gets exacerbated under condition high preseason soil storage. Current process‐based models cannot capture overestimate wet conditions. Our results highlight need improved understanding modeling yield.

Язык: Английский

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If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 54(11), С. 8545 - 8551

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2018

Abstract Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why extreme rainfall not resulting flooding. Among possible mechanisms responsible, identify decreases antecedent soil moisture, storm extent, and snowmelt. We argue understanding link between changes is a grand challenge hydrologic deserving increased attention.

Язык: Английский

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Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 8(9), С. 808 - 812

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2018

Язык: Английский

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Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 1472(1), С. 49 - 75

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2020

Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by Earth's energy balance at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate is suppressed rapid adjustments response greenhouse gases absorbing aerosols that directly alter budget. Rapid forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, observational uncertainty can explain why observed responses currently difficult detect but expected emerge accelerate as increases aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation be smaller over land than ocean due limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated feedbacks affected adjustments. Thermodynamic fluxes amplify wet dry events, driving intensification extremes. The deviate a simple thermodynamic in‐storm larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes large‐scale dynamics catchment characteristics further modulate frequency flooding increases. Changes circulation radiative evolving surface temperature patterns capable dominating cycle some regions. Moreover, direct impact human activities through abstraction, irrigation, use change already significant component regional importance demand grows population.

Язык: Английский

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Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 9(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 16, 2018

Abstract Weather extremes have widespread harmful impacts on ecosystems and human communities with more deaths economic losses from flash floods than any other severe weather-related hazards. Flash attributed to storm runoff are projected become frequent damaging globally due a warming climate anthropogenic changes, but previous studies not examined the response of these naturally anthropogenically driven changes in surface temperature atmospheric moisture content. Here we show that increase most regions at rates higher suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, which systematically close or exceed those precipitation over globe, accompanied large spatial decadal variability. These results suggest current may be underestimated, posing threats for ecosystem community resilience under future conditions.

Язык: Английский

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