A typology of compound weather and climate events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 1(7), С. 333 - 347

Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Understanding and managing connected extreme events

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 10(7), С. 611 - 621

Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2020

Язык: Английский

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A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

One Earth, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 4(4), С. 489 - 501

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2021

Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers climate change risk and how risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding that generate risk, including role adaptation mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present three categories increasingly focus on as well risks. A significant innovation recognizing can arise both from potential impacts due to responses change. This approach encourages thinking traverses sectoral regional boundaries links physical socio-economic risk. Advancing assessment in these ways essential more informed decision making reduces negative impacts.

Язык: Английский

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Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 10(12), С. 1074 - 1084

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(9), С. 592 - 609

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 475(2225), С. 20190013 - 20190013

Опубликована: Май 1, 2019

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects climate change, but ineffective when it comes change related atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, circulation strongly mediates impacts at regional scale. In this way, framework, focuses avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises prospect committing 2 (missed warnings). This ethical implications. At scale, however, where information be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability exposure-most uncertain-the societally relevant question not 'What happen?' rather impact particular actions under an uncertain change?' reframing can cut Gordian knot information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic aleatoric uncertainties-something that generally done in projections. It argued storyline change-the identification physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has potential accomplish precisely this.

Язык: Английский

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Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 8(3)

Опубликована: Март 11, 2021

Abstract Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted minimizing negative societal economic impacts. Forecasts daily seasonal scale vital for early warning, estimation event frequency hydraulic design, long‐term projections developing adaptation future conditions. All three types predictions—forecasts, estimates, projections—typically treat droughts floods independently, even though both extremes can be studied using related approaches have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common drought flood prediction their joint assessment (b) discuss tractable tackle these We group into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling prediction, human–water interactions. Data‐related include data availability definition. Process‐related the multivariate spatial characteristics extremes, non‐stationarities, changes in extremes. Modeling arise analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, modeling. Challenges with respect interactions lie establishing links impacts, representing interactions, science communication. potential ways tackling including exploiting new sources, studying a framework, influences compounding drivers, continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one several will improve predictions help minimize impacts extreme events. This article is categorized under: Science Water >

Язык: Английский

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Framing, Context, and Methods

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 147 - 286

Опубликована: Июнь 29, 2023

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Язык: Английский

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The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies

Water Security, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 11, С. 100070 - 100070

Опубликована: Ноя. 10, 2020

Most research on hydrological risks focuses either flood risk or drought risk, whilst floods and droughts are two extremes of the same cycle. To better design disaster reduction (DRR) measures strategies, it is important to consider interactions between these closely linked phenomena. We show examples of: (a) how DRR can have (unintended) positive negative impacts opposite hazard; (b) be negatively impacted by hazard. focus dikes levees, dams, stormwater control upstream measures, subsurface storage, migration, agricultural practices, vulnerability preparedness. identify key challenges for moving towards a more holistic management approach.

Язык: Английский

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Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(6)

Опубликована: Авг. 16, 2021

Abstract Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected reduce projection uncertainty related convection parameterizations found in most models. A recent surge CPRCM decadal over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led important insights into advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets spatial temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value CPRCMs. With an improved coordination frame ongoing international initiatives, production ensembles provide more robust projections better identification their associated uncertainties. review paper presents overview methodology latest research on current future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage these highlighted. ends by proposing next steps could be accomplished continue exploiting full potential article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Earth System

Язык: Английский

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