Author comment: Climate change and human security in coastal regions — R0/PR1 DOI Creative Commons
Jan Petzold

Опубликована: Сен. 11, 2023

Climate change has been recognised as a major concern in coastal hotspots exposed to multiple climate hazards under regionally specific characteristics of vulnerability. We review the emerging research and current trends academic literature on risk adaptation from human security perspective. The ecological socioeconomic developments are analysed for key areas, including infrastructure; water, food fisheries; health; mobility; conflict, taking different geographical contexts areas islands, megacities deltas into consideration. Compounding cascading interactions require integrative policy approaches address growing complexity. Governance mechanisms focus management adaptation, nature-based solutions community-based considering their synergies trade-offs. This perspective allows holistic view risks vicious circles societal instability systems interconnectedness dimensions necessary sustainable transformative most affected hotspots.

Язык: Английский

Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways DOI Creative Commons
Lena Reimann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Lars E. Honsel

и другие.

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Coastal areas are subject to hazards that can result in severe impacts due the high concentration of people and assets exposed locations. While climate-induced sea-level rise will exacerbate these course 21st century, future dynamics socioeconomic development play an important role driving – as well adaptation responses particular countries with rapid population growth low-lying coastal areas. Here, we synthesize current state knowledge related locations underlying trends affecting at continental global scales. Currently, 2.15 billion live near-coastal zone 898 million low-elevation globally. These numbers could increase 2.9 1.2 billion, respectively, depending on scenario (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]) considered. Nevertheless, although indicate a exposure hazards, they bear limited information about actual do not include vulnerability population. Based insights, stress need account for risk assessments, including vulnerability, additionally exploring potential feedbacks migration decisions. Last, propose action points work inform long-term planning managing risks.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

131

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise DOI Creative Commons
Lena Reimann, Bryan Jones,

Nora Bieker

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Май 6, 2023

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns depend on the amount of rise; future socioeconomic development; adaptation strategies pursued reduce exposure vulnerability rise. To explore feedbacks between these drivers, we combine projections, assumptions policies a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using Mediterranean region as case study, find up 20 million rise-related migrants by 2100 if no are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration southern eastern countries compared northern countries. We show that can number factor 1.4 9, depending type pursued; implementation hard protection measures may even towards protected coastlines. Overall, robust across all scenarios, out-migration from narrow coastal strip in-migration widely spread urban settings. However, (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends developments drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making goes well beyond issues.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

25

Research priorities for climate mobility DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas P. Simpson, Katharine J. Mach, Mark Tebboth

и другие.

One Earth, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(4), С. 589 - 607

Опубликована: Март 8, 2024

The escalating impacts of climate change on the movement and immobility people, coupled with false but influential narratives mobility, highlight an urgent need for nuanced synthetic research around mobility. Synthesis evidence gaps across Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report a to clarify understanding what conditions make human mobility effective adaptation option its outcomes, including simultaneous losses, damages, benefits. Priorities include integration development planning; involuntary vulnerability; gender; data cities; risk from responses maladaptation; public risk; transboundary, compound, cascading risks; nature-based approaches; planned retreat, relocation, heritage. Cutting these priorities, modalities better position as type process, praxis. Policies practices reflect diverse needs, experiences emphasizing capability, choice, freedom movement.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

9

Climate change and human security in coastal regions DOI Creative Commons
Jan Petzold, Jürgen Scheffran

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change has been recognised as a major concern in coastal hotspots exposed to multiple climate hazards under regionally specific characteristics of vulnerability. We review the emerging research and current trends academic literature on risk adaptation from human security perspective. The ecological socioeconomic developments are analysed for key areas, including infrastructure; water, food fisheries; health; mobility; conflict, taking different geographical contexts areas islands, megacities deltas into consideration. Compounding cascading interactions require integrative policy approaches address growing complexity. Governance mechanisms focus management adaptation, nature-based solutions community-based considering their synergies trade-offs. This perspective allows holistic view risks vicious circles societal instability systems interconnectedness dimensions necessary sustainable transformative most affected hotspots.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

7

Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure DOI Creative Commons
Renlu Qiao, Shuo Gao, Xiaochang Liu

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Июль 26, 2024

Amid the escalating global climatic challenges, hydrological risks significantly influence human settlement patterns, underscoring imperative for an in-depth comprehension of change's ramifications on migration. However, predominant research has been circumscribed to national level. The study delves into nonlinear effects migration dynamics in 46,776 subnational units. Meanwhile, leveraging remote sensing, we procured globally consistent metrics intrusion exposure, offering a holistic risk assessment encompassing hazard, and vulnerability dimensions, thus complementing previous work. Here, show that exposure is primary driver, surpassing socioeconomic factors. Surrounding disparities further intensified exposure's impact. Vulnerable groups, especially economically disadvantaged elderly, tend remain high-risk areas, with former predominantly migrating within proximate vicinities. analysis delineates S-shaped trajectory transitioning from resistance culminating entrapment, revealing dependence resilience adaptability.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6

Migration, land loss and costs to 2100 due to coastal flooding under the IPCC AR6 sea-level rise scenarios and plausible adaptation choices DOI Creative Commons
Caridad Ballesteros, Daniël Lincke, Robert J. Nicholls

и другие.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 12

Опубликована: Март 27, 2025

Sea-level rise (SLR) through the twenty-first century and beyond is inevitable, threatening coastal areas their inhabitants unless there appropriate adaptation. We investigate flooding to 2100 under full range of IPCC AR6 (2021) SLR scenarios, assuming plausible The adaptation selects most economically robust option: protection or retreat. People living in unprotected that are frequently inundated (below 1-in-1-year flood level) assumed migrate, land considered lost. Globally, across related socioeconomic we estimate between 4 million 72 people could migrate over century, with a net loss ranging from 2,800 490,000 km 2 . India Vietnam consistently show highest absolute migration, while Small Island Developing States affected when considering relative migration loss. Protection option all scenarios for 2.8% global coastline, but this safeguards 78% population 91% assets areas. Climate stabilisation (SSP1–1.9 SSP1–2.6) does not avoid impacts costs as sea levels still albeit more slowly. also sensitive scenario: SSP3–7.0 experiences higher than SSP5–8.5 despite lower SLR, reflecting larger GDP. Our findings can inform national intergovernmental agencies organisations on magnitude guide assessments policies strategies.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Coastal Morphodynamics and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Advances DOI Creative Commons

Lynn Donelson Wright,

B. G. Thom

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(10), С. 1997 - 1997

Опубликована: Окт. 17, 2023

The shape of the coast and processes that mold it change together as a complex system. There is constant feedback among multiple components system, when climate changes, all facets system change. Abrupt shifts to different states can also take place certain tipping points are crossed. coupling rapid warming in Arctic with melting sea ice one example positive feedback. Climate particularly rising temperatures, causing an increasing frequency tropical storms “compound events” such storm surges combined torrential rains. These events superimposed on progressive rises relative level anticipated push many coastal morphodynamic systems beyond which return preexisting conditions unlikely. Complex modeling results long-term sets observations from diverse cases help anticipate future threats. Innovative engineering solutions needed adapt changes landscapes environmental risks. New understandings cascading climate-change-related physical, ecological, socioeconomic effects, multi-faceted continually contributing imperative search for resilience. Recent contributions, summarized here, based theory, observations, numerically modeled results, regional case studies, global projections.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

11

Comparing built-up area datasets to assess urban exposure to coastal hazards in Europe DOI Creative Commons
Hedda Bonatz, Lena Reimann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis

и другие.

Scientific Data, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Май 15, 2024

Abstract Information on urban land use, beyond the urban-rural dichotomy, can improve assessment of potential impacts coastal hazards by refining estimates damages and supporting adaptation planning. However, lack a consistent definition “urban” in previous studies has led to exposure that vary considerably. Here, we explore sensitivity exposed population built-up area four settlement types, defined different datasets. We find large differences up 65% (127 million people) “Urban” class. The are highly sensitive density thresholds used distinguish with difference 53.5 people when threshold varies 10%. attribute high varying definitions underlying argue is crucial for impact assessments make recommendations use analyzed

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4

Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique DOI Creative Commons
Kushagra Pandey, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel

и другие.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(12), С. 4409 - 4429

Опубликована: Дек. 6, 2024

Abstract. Coastal flooding and sea level rise (SLR) will affect farmers in coastal areas, as increasing salinity levels reduce crop yields, leading to a loss of net annual income for farming communities. In response, can take various actions. To assess such responses under SLR, we applied an agent-based model (ABM) simulate the adaptation migration decisions Mozambique. The ABM is coupled with salinization module relationship between soil SLR. decision rules (DYNAMO-M) are based on economic theory subjective expected utility. This posits that households maximize their welfare by deciding whether (a) stay face losses from flooding, (b) adapt (e.g. switching salt-tolerant crops enhancing physical resilience elevating houses), or (c) migrate safer inland areas. results show Mozambique total up USD 12.5 million yr−1 salt intrusion 1200 buildings (RCP8.5 year 2080). Sorghum may experience little damage intrusion, while rice 4000 yr−1. We medium-sized (1–5 ha) most at risk. because farm size means costs substantial, incomes too low cover these costs. number adapting varies different districts (15 %–21 %), being common, lowest. Despite measures, about 13 %–20 % 350 000 flood zones areas settings adaptive behaviour climatic socio-economic scenarios.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4

Scientific frontiers on migration and sustainability DOI Creative Commons
W. Neil Adger, Sonja Fransen, Ricardo Safra de Campos

и другие.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(3)

Опубликована: Янв. 8, 2024

Understanding the biological basis of social anxiety disorder (SAD), one most disabling disorders, will allow for novel treatment strategies to be developed. Here, we show that gut microbiota may such a target. Mice ...Social (SAD) is crippling psychiatric characterized by intense fear or in situations and their avoidance. However, underlying biology SAD unclear better treatments are needed. Recently, ...

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3