How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 30(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, explore might reach better Large‐scale studies estimated ~1% sampled species up ~70%, even when using same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst‐case estimates often converge near 20%–30% loss, many differences shrink similar assumptions. We perform a new recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss climate under scenarios. However, shows that are biased by excluding most vulnerable (those known from few localities), lead underestimating loss. Conversely, our analyses responses fundamental assumption species' climatic niches do not over time, frequently violated. For example, find mean rates positive thermal niche across ~0.02°C/year. Yet, still slower than projected ~3–4 fold. Finally, levels can combining group‐specific with projections richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary tentatively forecast climate‐related 14%–32% macroscopic in next ~50 years, including 3–6 million (or more) animal plant species, intermediate

Язык: Английский

---

A metric‐based framework for climate‐smart conservation planning

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 33(4)

Опубликована: Март 22, 2023

Abstract Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area‐based management tools used conserve such as protected areas. One main obstacle the lack of consensus regarding how impacts can included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate‐smart framework that prioritizes protection refugia—areas low exposure and high biodiversity retention—using metrics. explore four aspects planning: (1) model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) metrics; (4) approaches identifying refugia. illustrate this Western Pacific Ocean, it equally applicable terrestrial systems. found all planning considered affected configuration The choice metrics refugia have large resulting plans, whereas models scenarios smaller effects. As plans depended used, plan based single measure (e.g., warming) will not necessarily robust against other measures ocean acidification). therefore recommend using most relevant for region or drivers. To include uncertainty associated with different futures, we (i.e., an ensemble) scenarios. Finally, show identify feature trade‐offs between: degree which they are climate‐smart, their efficiency meeting targets. Hence, approach depend relative value stakeholders place adaptation. By framework, areas designed improved longevity thus safeguard current future change. hope proposed helps transition toward approaches.

Язык: Английский

---

Climate change extinctions

Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 386(6726), С. 1123 - 1128

Опубликована: Дек. 5, 2024

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections produce a quantitative global assessment of climate extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, freshwater ecosystems; inhabiting South America, Australia, New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, has contributed an increasing proportion observed since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which protect first be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic halted reversed.

Язык: Английский

---

Exploring rainfall-driven climate hazards using the climate hazard index and historical data from ERA5 (study case: Indonesia)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 156(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 11, 2025

Язык: Английский

---

Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Few coastal ecosystems remain untouched by direct human activities, and none are unimpacted anthropogenic climate change. These drivers interact with exacerbate each other in complex ways, yielding a mosaic of ecological consequences that range from adaptive responses, such as geographic shifts changes phenology, to severe impacts, mass mortalities, regime loss biodiversity. Identifying the role change these phenomena requires corroborating evidence multiple lines evidence, including laboratory experiments, field observations, numerical models palaeorecords. Yet few studies can confidently quantify magnitude effect attributable solely change, because seldom acts alone ecosystems. Projections future risk further complicated scenario uncertainty – is, our lack knowledge about degree which humanity will mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions, or make ways we impact Irrespective, ocean warming would be impossible reverse before end century, sea levels likely continue rise for centuries elevated millennia. Therefore, risks projected mirror impacts already observed, severity escalating cumulative emissions. Promising avenues progress beyond qualitative assessments include collaborative modelling initiatives, model intercomparison projects, use broader systems. But reduce rapidly reducing emissions greenhouse gases, restoring damaged habitats, regulating non-climate stressors using climate-smart conservation actions, implementing inclusive coastal-zone management approaches, especially those involving nature-based solutions.

Язык: Английский

---

Impact of climate change on the distribution of Trachurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea

Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 160, С. 111758 - 111758

Опубликована: Фев. 23, 2024

Understanding the impact of climate change on distribution marine species is vital importance for sustainable development fisheries. In this study, an ensemble model employed to predict potential Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) in Northern South China Sea (NSCS) under current conditions and three future scenarios (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways RCP126, RCP245, RCP585). The incorporates environmental variables including sea surface salinity (SSS), height above geoid (SSH), temperature (SST), ocean mixed layer thickness (MLD), distance from land (DFL). Notably, SST SSH are found be most influential factors defining habitat T. japonicus. Model predictions reveal that suitable habitats japonicus primarily located offshore area west Pearl River estuary, especially waters with depths less than 100 m NSCS. Beibu Gulf emerges as a prominent species. However, projections indicate significant reduction areas high probability occurrence, particularly emissions. This observed NSCS at ranging 40 m, while northwestern coastal regions projected witness increase habitats. rate contraction expected surpass expansion, estimated 16.93 % 29.27 decrease by 2091–2100.These findings offer fundamental insights into how impacts provide valuable guidance resource utilization.

Язык: Английский

---

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(12), С. 1282 - 1291

Опубликована: Окт. 7, 2024

Abstract Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data world’s largest fish, whale shark, show that redistributions present-day are projected increase species’ co-occurrence with shipping. Our model projects core area losses >50% within some national waters by 2100, geographic shifts over 1,000 km (∼12 yr −1 ). Greater predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing sharks large ships. This was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate climate-induced species exposure direct sources mortality possible, emphasizing need for quantitative climate-threat predictions conservation assessments endangered megafauna.

Язык: Английский

---

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Июль 15, 2024

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections estimate temporal thermal exposure (when exceeds realised species' limits) and opportunity at a previously site becomes suitable) for 21,696 globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected arise earlier accumulate gradually, especially in temperate polar regions. increases later occurs more abruptly, mainly the tropics. Assemblages tend show either high or opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce around 100-fold whereas halved. Globally, emerge faster than mid-century when rapidly under scenario. Moreover, across dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% persist These results indicate could be major source biodiversity change, near- mid-term. Our work provides framework predicting where changes occur guide monitoring efforts.

Язык: Английский

---

Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 207, С. 116873 - 116873

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) occurrence records of Chub mackerel the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models four ensemble simulate current habitat distribution forecast under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 2050s 2100s. Ensemble outperformed ones, with weighted average algorithm model achieving highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced distribution. Predictions indicate high suitability areas are concentrated beyond 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under scenarios, expected decline, a shift towards higher latitudes deeper waters. High will be reduced.

Язык: Английский

---

Multiple dimensions of extreme weather events and their impacts on biodiversity

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 176(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

Abstract Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon. As such, no single metric can capture all trajectories of and associated impacts. While numerous metrics exist to measure climate change, they tend focus on central tendencies neglect the multidimensionality extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs differ in their frequency, duration, intensity, be described for temperature, precipitation, wind speed, while considering different thresholds defining “extremeness.” We review existing EWE outline framework classifying interpreting them light foreseeable impacts biodiversity. Using an example drawn from Caribbean Central America, we show that reflect unequal spatial patterns exposure across region. Based available evidence, discuss how such relate threats biological populations, empirically demonstrating ecologically informed help processes as mangrove recovery. Unveiling complexity affecting biodiversity only possible through mobilisation plethora metrics. The proposed represents step forward over assessments using dimensions or averages highly variable time series.

Язык: Английский

---