Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 626(7999), С. 555 - 564

Опубликована: Фев. 14, 2024

Abstract The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1–3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, region is increasingly exposed unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central remote parts of 1 Long existing feedbacks between environmental conditions are being replaced by novel modify ecosystem resilience, increasing risk critical transition. Here we analyse evidence for five major drivers water on forests, as well potential thresholds those that, if crossed, trigger local, regional or biome-wide collapse. By combining spatial information various disturbances, estimate 2050, 10% 47% will be compounding disturbances may unexpected transitions potentially exacerbate climate change. Using examples disturbed across Amazon, identify three most plausible trajectories, involving different conditions. We discuss how inherent complexity adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities action. Keeping Anthropocene depend combination local efforts end degradation expand restoration, with stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Язык: Английский

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Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(9), С. 967 - 974

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2023

Abstract The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it unclear which forests are the most vulnerable extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may protected by prior adaptation, or more because they operate closer physiological limits. Here we report that in South American climates experienced greatest impacts of 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability temperatures drought. long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses 123 plots across America show biomass ceased during event balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha −1 per year). However, intact overall were no sensitive Niño than previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long protected.

Язык: Английский

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Amazon forest biogeography predicts resilience and vulnerability to drought

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 631(8019), С. 111 - 117

Опубликована: Июнь 19, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Double stress of waterlogging and drought drives forest–savanna coexistence

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 120(33)

Опубликована: Авг. 7, 2023

Forest-savanna boundaries are ecotones that support complex ecosystem functions and sensitive to biotic/abiotic perturbations. What drives their distribution today how it may shift in the future open questions. Feedbacks among climate, fire, herbivory, land use known drivers. Here, we show alternating seasonal drought waterlogging stress favors dominance of savanna-like ecosystems over forests. We track water-table depth as an indicator water when too deep oxygen shallow map forest/savanna occurrence within this double-stress space neotropics. find under a given annual precipitation, savannas favored landscape positions experiencing double stress, which is more common dry season strengthens (climate driver) but only found waterlogged lowlands (terrain driver). further hydrological changes at end century expose some flooded forests savanna expansion, affecting biodiversity soil carbon storage. Our results highlight importance hydrology understanding/predicting forest-savanna transitions changing world.

Язык: Английский

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Drought determines the growth stability of different dominant conifer species in Central Asia

Global and Planetary Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 234, С. 104370 - 104370

Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Biodiversity and productivity in eastern US forests

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(14)

Опубликована: Март 25, 2024

Despite experimental and observational studies demonstrating that biodiversity enhances primary productivity, the best metric for predicting productivity at broad geographic extents—functional trait diversity, phylogenetic or species richness—remains unknown. Using >1.8 million tree measurements from across eastern US forests, we quantified relationships among functional richness, productivity. Surprisingly, diversity explained little variation in could not be by richness. This result was consistent entire United States, within ecoprovinces, data subsets controlled biomass stand age. Metrics of were independent richness negatively correlated with last suggests processes determine sorting packing are likely important between biodiversity. also demonstrates potential confusion can arise when interdependencies different metrics ignored. Our findings show value as a predictive tool highlight gaps knowledge about linkages ecosystem functioning.

Язык: Английский

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Intraspecific trait variation and resource allocation trade-offs under water stress unveil divergent survival strategies in emergent macrophyteTabs amid climate change

Environmental and Experimental Botany, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 106105 - 106105

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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High soil moisture triggers negative plant–soil feedbacks in a tropical forest

Functional Ecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 14, 2025

Abstract Plant‐microbial interactions help stabilize coexistence and shape ecological communities. These are sensitive to abiotic conditions, but how they may be affected by environmental change is unknown. Variation in water availability particularly important as it impacts both plant microbial physiology. Local naturally fluctuates terrestrial ecosystems, climate predicted accentuate this variation. For example, environments that experience seasonal rainfall, such Central American tropical forests, expected drier dry seasons wetter wet seasons. To explore the consequences of altered moisture regimes for plant‐microbial interactions, we conducted a plant–soil feedback experiment central Panama which inoculated seedlings from six shade‐tolerant tree species with soil communities associated either conspecific or heterospecific adults sterilized grew them under two different regimes: 50% 100% total holding capacity (WHC). At WHC, seedling survival growth were unaffected source inoculum. was reduced sterile treatment biomass highest grown soil. Soil modified strength feedbacks. Plant–soil feedbacks negative at high (100% WHC) disappeared low (50% WHC). Our work extends growing body research on effects North prairie tropics, shows their implications stabilizing context dependent seedlings. As result, phenomena reduce moisture, forest fragmentation, could diversity assemblages weakening Read free Plain Language Summary article Journal blog.

Язык: Английский

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Can large-scale tree cover change negate climate change impacts on future water availability?

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 29(7), С. 1895 - 1918

Опубликована: Апрель 15, 2025

Abstract. The availability of fresh water over land may become increasingly scarce under climate change (CC), and natural human-induced tree cover changes can further enhance or negate the scarcity. Previous studies showed that global have large impacts on current conditions, but they did not touch upon implications change. Here, we study hydrological large-scale (climate-induced in combination with afforestation) a future (SSP3-7.0) following an interdisciplinary approach. By combining data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models potential dataset, six Budyko models, UTrack moisture recycling disentangle evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff. We quantify per grid cell for selected river basins (Yukon, Mississippi, Amazon, Danube, Murray–Darling) if counteract climate-driven runoff due to their impact evapotranspiration recycling. Globally averaged, be similar magnitude opposite signs. While increase runoff, estimate could reverse this effect, which result limited net relative present cover. Nevertheless, local substantial, increases decreases more than 100 mm yr−1. show that, approximately 16 % surface, significantly. However, 14 both decrease by 5 For each catchments, direction vary, dominating all except Mississippi River basin. Our results ecosystem restoration projects targeting altered should consider corresponding limit unwanted (non-)local reductions availability.

Язык: Английский

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Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 7(10), С. 1620 - 1632

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2023

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits species to model risk globally. We combine these models with distribution records estimate faced by local plant assemblages. Thus, produce global maps test for its relationship observed DIM. Our results show that assemblages modelled as having higher present probability Metrics characterizing this improve DIM predictions globally, relative accounting only predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology here allows mapping trait distributions elucidation macro-evolutionary biogeographical patterns, improving our ability predict potential change impacts vegetation.

Язык: Английский

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