Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 387(6740), С. 1252 - 1253
Опубликована: Март 20, 2025
Nonliving organic matter could create more stable carbon reservoirs
Язык: Английский
Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2024
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play unique role in identifying anticipating phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short temporal early warning points, complementary spatial indicators leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with system models improve process-based understanding their interactions, potential cascades. Such fine-resolution support point management
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
34
Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 30(4)
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2024
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is crucial for maintaining the structural and functional stability of ecosystems following disturbances. However, changes in over past few decades risk future loss under ongoing climate change are unclear. Here, we identified trends using two remotely sensed vegetation indices, analyzed relative importance potential driving factors to changes, finally assessed based on output data eight models from CMIP6. The results revealed that more than 60% experienced a conversion an increased trend declined resilience. Attribution analysis showed most important varied regionally. were associated with precipitation variability tropics, decreased cover arid region, temperature temperate regions, average cold regions. CMIP6 reveals terrestrial SPP585 expected experience intense declines those SSP126 SSP245, particularly These highlight continued degradation urgency mitigation actions.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
25
Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 7(11), С. 1799 - 1808
Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2023
Abstract Concerns have been raised that the resilience of vegetated ecosystems may be negatively impacted by ongoing anthropogenic climate and land-use change at global scale. Several recent studies present vegetation trends based on satellite data using diverse methodological set-ups. Here, upon a systematic comparison sets, spatial temporal pre-processing, estimation methods, we propose methodology avoids different biases in previous results. Nevertheless, find optical is broadly problematic dense tropical high-latitude boreal forests, regardless index chosen. However, for wide parts mid-latitudes—especially with low biomass density—resilience can reliably estimated several indices. We infer spatially consistent pattern gain loss across indices, more regions facing declining resilience, especially Africa, Australia central Asia.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
35
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 340, С. 109602 - 109602
Опубликована: Июль 14, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
27
Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 8, 2024
Abstract Accurate assessment of drought recovery probability is crucial for proactive strategies in cost‐effective water resource allocation, resilient agriculture management, and sustainable energy planning. However, there has been a notable gap assessing from probabilistic multi‐variate perspective. Here, we develop Vine Copula‐based framework to quantify global explore its elasticity precipitation changes. Compared the historical period (1951–1983), 51% land become increasingly difficult recover extreme droughts over 1984–2016 within 8–14 days during growing seasons. Furthermore, response changes depends on background climate varies asymmetrically between wet dry conditions. Under an extremely climate, 1% increase yields mere 0.5% median June‐July‐August, but can lead pronounced 6.6% if gets drier.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
11
National Science Review, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(12)
Опубликована: Окт. 22, 2024
ABSTRACT In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, which 86% above that of previous year and hit a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel emissions only increased by 0.6% 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening land ocean sinks, raises question where why this reduction happened. Here, we show net sink 0.44 0.21 GtC yr−1, is weakest 2003. We used dynamic vegetation models, satellite fire emissions, atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements emulators biogeochemical data-driven models to deliver fast-track carbon budget 2023. Those ensured consistency with budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015 2022 are consistent between top-down bottom-up approaches, largest abnormal loss Amazon during drought second half 2023 (0.31 0.19 yr−1), extreme 0.58 0.10 yr−1 Canada Southeast Asia (0.13 0.12 yr−1). Since 2015, uptake north 20°N had declined 1.13 0.24 Meanwhile, tropics recovered 2015–2016 El Niño loss, gained La Niña years (2020–2023), then switched (0.56 0.23 The stronger than normal equatorial eastern Pacific due reduced upwelling Niña's retreat early development later. Land regions exposed heat contributed gross 1.73 indicating warming strong negative impact capacity terrestrial ecosystems mitigate climate change.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
11
Trends in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 28(9), С. 1014 - 1032
Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
20
Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30(1)
Опубликована: Ноя. 21, 2023
Abstract The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme droughts, with devastating impacts on tree growth survival, have increased climate change over the past decades. Assessing resistance resilience to drought is a crucial prerequisite for understanding responses forest functioning events. However, droughts different durations across climatic zones remain unclear. Here, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns in response during 1901–2015, relying tree‐ring chronologies from 2389 stands mid‐ high‐latitudinal Northern Hemisphere, species‐specific plant functional traits, diverse factors. findings revealed that under 1‐year were higher humid regions than arid regions. Significant was observed 2‐year both regions, while did not show significant difference. Temporally, became less resistant resilient 1980–2015 1901–1979 As lengthened, predominant factors weakened instead foliar economic hydraulic soil properties much more important regions; addition, such trends also temporally. Finally, found most Earth system models (ESMs) used this study overestimated underestimated droughts. A comprehensive ecophysiological longer intensified events urgently needed, specific emphasis should be placed improving performance ESMs.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
19
AGU Advances, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(2)
Опубликована: Март 1, 2024
Abstract Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO 2 levels, further altering climate. Here, we assessed reliability Earth system model (ESM) predictions using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 6 (CMIP5 CMIP6). ESMs predicted gains under high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) on average during 21st century. The variation declined significantly from CMIP5 (with 48.4 [95% 2.0–94.9 Pg] C) CMIP6 models 39.3 23.9–54.7 C). For some models, small increase all biomes contributed this convergence. other offsetting cold warm Although appeared converge CMIP6, dominant processes driving at or biome scales differed among many cases earlier later versions same model. Random Forest for dynamics, accounted more than 63% by ESMs, but only 36% models. most apparently agree increased storage century, consensus obscures substantial disagreement mechanisms underlying response, calling into question predictions.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
9
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(22)
Опубликована: Май 20, 2024
Dynamic ecosystems, such as the Amazon forest, are expected to show critical slowing down behavior, or slower recovery from recurrent small perturbations, they approach an ecological threshold a different ecosystem state. Drought occurrences becoming more prevalent across Amazon, with known negative effects on forest health and functioning, but their actual role in patterns still remains elusive. In this study, we evaluate effect of trends extreme drought temporal autocorrelation (TAC) satellite-derived indices vegetation activity, indicator down, between 2001 2019. Differentiating frequency, intensity, duration, investigate respective response. Our results indicate that intensity droughts is important driver than although impacts vary regions. addition, areas variable precipitation already less ecologically stable need fewer induce down. We present findings indicating most region does not increasing trend TAC. However, predicted increase frequency could potentially transition significant portions into state altered functionality.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
9