Remote Sensing of Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 315, P. 114406 - 114406
Published: Sept. 13, 2024
Language: Английский
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)
Published: Jan. 6, 2024
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play unique role in identifying anticipating phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short temporal early warning points, complementary spatial indicators leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with system models improve process-based understanding their interactions, potential cascades. Such fine-resolution support point management
Language: Английский
Citations
30
Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(4)
Published: April 1, 2024
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is crucial for maintaining the structural and functional stability of ecosystems following disturbances. However, changes in over past few decades risk future loss under ongoing climate change are unclear. Here, we identified trends using two remotely sensed vegetation indices, analyzed relative importance potential driving factors to changes, finally assessed based on output data eight models from CMIP6. The results revealed that more than 60% experienced a conversion an increased trend declined resilience. Attribution analysis showed most important varied regionally. were associated with precipitation variability tropics, decreased cover arid region, temperature temperate regions, average cold regions. CMIP6 reveals terrestrial SPP585 expected experience intense declines those SSP126 SSP245, particularly These highlight continued degradation urgency mitigation actions.
Language: Английский
Citations
23
Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 7(11), P. 1799 - 1808
Published: Sept. 14, 2023
Abstract Concerns have been raised that the resilience of vegetated ecosystems may be negatively impacted by ongoing anthropogenic climate and land-use change at global scale. Several recent studies present vegetation trends based on satellite data using diverse methodological set-ups. Here, upon a systematic comparison sets, spatial temporal pre-processing, estimation methods, we propose methodology avoids different biases in previous results. Nevertheless, find optical is broadly problematic dense tropical high-latitude boreal forests, regardless index chosen. However, for wide parts mid-latitudes—especially with low biomass density—resilience can reliably estimated several indices. We infer spatially consistent pattern gain loss across indices, more regions facing declining resilience, especially Africa, Australia central Asia.
Language: Английский
Citations
34
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 340, P. 109602 - 109602
Published: July 14, 2023
Language: Английский
Citations
26
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(1)
Published: Jan. 8, 2024
Abstract Accurate assessment of drought recovery probability is crucial for proactive strategies in cost‐effective water resource allocation, resilient agriculture management, and sustainable energy planning. However, there has been a notable gap assessing from probabilistic multi‐variate perspective. Here, we develop Vine Copula‐based framework to quantify global explore its elasticity precipitation changes. Compared the historical period (1951–1983), 51% land become increasingly difficult recover extreme droughts over 1984–2016 within 8–14 days during growing seasons. Furthermore, response changes depends on background climate varies asymmetrically between wet dry conditions. Under an extremely climate, 1% increase yields mere 0.5% median June‐July‐August, but can lead pronounced 6.6% if gets drier.
Language: Английский
Citations
10
National Science Review, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(12)
Published: Oct. 22, 2024
ABSTRACT In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, which 86% above that of previous year and hit a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel emissions only increased by 0.6% 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening land ocean sinks, raises question where why this reduction happened. Here, we show net sink 0.44 0.21 GtC yr−1, is weakest 2003. We used dynamic vegetation models, satellite fire emissions, atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements emulators biogeochemical data-driven models to deliver fast-track carbon budget 2023. Those ensured consistency with budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015 2022 are consistent between top-down bottom-up approaches, largest abnormal loss Amazon during drought second half 2023 (0.31 0.19 yr−1), extreme 0.58 0.10 yr−1 Canada Southeast Asia (0.13 0.12 yr−1). Since 2015, uptake north 20°N had declined 1.13 0.24 Meanwhile, tropics recovered 2015–2016 El Niño loss, gained La Niña years (2020–2023), then switched (0.56 0.23 The stronger than normal equatorial eastern Pacific due reduced upwelling Niña's retreat early development later. Land regions exposed heat contributed gross 1.73 indicating warming strong negative impact capacity terrestrial ecosystems mitigate climate change.
Language: Английский
Citations
10
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(22)
Published: May 20, 2024
Dynamic ecosystems, such as the Amazon forest, are expected to show critical slowing down behavior, or slower recovery from recurrent small perturbations, they approach an ecological threshold a different ecosystem state. Drought occurrences becoming more prevalent across Amazon, with known negative effects on forest health and functioning, but their actual role in patterns still remains elusive. In this study, we evaluate effect of trends extreme drought temporal autocorrelation (TAC) satellite-derived indices vegetation activity, indicator down, between 2001 2019. Differentiating frequency, intensity, duration, investigate respective response. Our results indicate that intensity droughts is important driver than although impacts vary regions. addition, areas variable precipitation already less ecologically stable need fewer induce down. We present findings indicating most region does not increasing trend TAC. However, predicted increase frequency could potentially transition significant portions into state altered functionality.
Language: Английский
Citations
9
Trends in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 28(9), P. 1014 - 1032
Published: April 21, 2023
Language: Английский
Citations
20
Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30(1)
Published: Nov. 21, 2023
Abstract The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme droughts, with devastating impacts on tree growth survival, have increased climate change over the past decades. Assessing resistance resilience to drought is a crucial prerequisite for understanding responses forest functioning events. However, droughts different durations across climatic zones remain unclear. Here, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns in response during 1901–2015, relying tree‐ring chronologies from 2389 stands mid‐ high‐latitudinal Northern Hemisphere, species‐specific plant functional traits, diverse factors. findings revealed that under 1‐year were higher humid regions than arid regions. Significant was observed 2‐year both regions, while did not show significant difference. Temporally, became less resistant resilient 1980–2015 1901–1979 As lengthened, predominant factors weakened instead foliar economic hydraulic soil properties much more important regions; addition, such trends also temporally. Finally, found most Earth system models (ESMs) used this study overestimated underestimated droughts. A comprehensive ecophysiological longer intensified events urgently needed, specific emphasis should be placed improving performance ESMs.
Language: Английский
Citations
19
Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(5)
Published: May 1, 2024
Abstract Resistance and resilience are widely used to characterize ecosystem drought stability. Tradeoff between resistance have been reported, but its long‐term trends remain uncertain at global scale. Based on remotely sensed vegetation indices, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of resilience. Result revealed that there was a significant decline in tradeoff resilience, corresponding substantial increase proportion areas with high resistance‐high or low resistance‐low In South Sahel, Africa Central China, increased precipitation coverage contribute enhanced stability constructed by resilience; while rising temperature, decreased water availability deforestation lead declined northeastern North America, America Congo region. Increases resulting from declining tradeoffs warn regional vulnerability.
Language: Английский
Citations
8