Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
3(3)
Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2024
Abstract
Increases
in
wildfire
activity
and
the
resulting
impacts
have
prompted
development
of
high-resolution
behavior
models
for
forecasting
fire
spread.
Recent
progress
using
satellites
to
detect
locations
further
provides
opportunity
use
measurements
toward
improving
spread
forecasts
from
numerical
through
data
assimilation.
This
work
develops
a
physics-informed
approach
inferring
history
satellite
measurements,
providing
necessary
information
initialize
coupled
atmosphere–wildfire
measured
state.
The
arrival
time,
which
is
time
reaches
given
spatial
location,
acts
as
succinct
representation
wildfire.
In
this
work,
conditional
Wasserstein
generative
adversarial
network
(cWGAN),
trained
with
WRF–SFIRE
simulations,
used
infer
active
data.
cWGAN
produce
samples
likely
times
distribution
detections.
Samples
produced
by
are
assess
uncertainty
predictions.
tested
on
four
California
wildfires
occurring
between
2020
2022,
predictions
extent
compared
against
airborne
infrared
measurements.
Further,
predicted
ignition
reported
times.
An
average
Sørensen’s
coefficient
0.81
perimeters
an
difference
32
min
suggest
that
method
highly
accurate.
Significance
Statement
To
simulations
physically
consistent
way
based
locations,
it
critical
ensure
state
atmosphere
aligns
at
start
forecast.
If
known,
may
be
develop
atmospheric
matching
determined
process
known
spinup.
paper,
we
present
novel
early
stage
Here,
inference
performed
probabilistic
sense
physics
incorporated
training
derived
model.
Science,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
375(6586), С. 1292 - 1295
Опубликована: Март 17, 2022
Large
wildfires
inject
smoke
and
biomass-burning
products
into
the
mid-latitude
stratosphere,
where
they
destroy
ozone,
which
protects
us
from
ultraviolet
radiation.
The
infrared
spectrometer
on
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Experiment
satellite
measured
spectra
of
particles
"Black
Summer"
fires
in
Australia
late
2019
early
2020,
revealing
that
contain
oxygenated
organic
functional
groups
water
adsorption
surfaces.
These
injected
have
produced
unexpected
extreme
perturbations
stratospheric
gases
beyond
any
seen
previous
15
years
measurements,
including
increases
formaldehyde,
chlorine
nitrate,
monoxide,
hypochlorous
acid
decreases
nitrogen
dioxide,
hydrochloric
acid.
composition
potential
to
affect
ozone
chemistry
ways.
Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
22(5), С. 937 - 989
Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2023
This
assessment
provides
a
comprehensive
update
of
the
effects
changes
in
stratospheric
ozone
and
other
factors
(aerosols,
surface
reflectivity,
solar
activity,
climate)
on
intensity
ultraviolet
(UV)
radiation
at
Earth's
surface.
The
is
performed
context
Montreal
Protocol
Substances
that
Deplete
Ozone
Layer
its
Amendments
Adjustments.
Changes
UV
low-
mid-latitudes
(0-60°)
during
last
25
years
have
generally
been
small
(e.g.,
typically
less
than
4%
per
decade,
increasing
some
sites
decreasing
others)
were
mostly
driven
by
cloud
cover
atmospheric
aerosol
content,
caused
partly
climate
change
measures
to
control
tropospheric
pollution.
Without
Protocol,
erythemal
(sunburning)
irradiance
northern
southern
latitudes
50°
would
increased
10-20%
between
1996
2020.
For
exceeding
50°,
Index
(UVI)
surged
25%
(year-round
tip
South
America)
more
100%
(South
Pole
spring).
Variability
Antarctica
was
very
large
four
years.
In
spring
2019,
minimum
historical
(1991-2018)
range
Pole,
while
near
record-high
values
observed
2020,
which
up
80%
above
mean.
Arctic,
highest
irradiances
record
measured
March
April
example
monthly
average
UVI
over
site
Canadian
Arctic
70%
higher
(2005-2019)
average,
often
this
mean
three
standard
deviations.
Under
presumption
all
countries
will
adhere
future
concentrations
remain
constant,
(30-60°)
projected
decrease
2015
2090
2-5%
north
4-6%
south
due
recovering
ozone.
for
tropics
are
≤
3%.
However,
industrial
regions
currently
affected
air
pollution,
increase
as
reduce
pollutants
gradually
restore
intensities
those
cleaner
atmosphere.
Since
most
substances
controlled
also
greenhouse
gases,
phase-out
these
may
avoided
warming
0.5-1.0
°C
mid-latitude
continents,
1.0
Arctic;
however,
uncertainty
calculations
large.
We
assess
climate,
focusing
poleward
shift
zones,
discuss
role
Antarctic
hole
2019
devastating
"Black
Summer"
fires
Australia.
Additional
topics
include
advances
measuring
modeling
radiation;
methods
determining
personal
exposure;
effect
management
(stratospheric
injections)
relevant
plants;
possible
revisions
vitamin
D
action
spectrum,
describes
wavelength
dependence
synthesis
previtamin
Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
22(5), С. 1049 - 1091
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2023
Terrestrial
organisms
and
ecosystems
are
being
exposed
to
new
rapidly
changing
combinations
of
solar
UV
radiation
other
environmental
factors
because
ongoing
changes
in
stratospheric
ozone
climate.
In
this
Quadrennial
Assessment,
we
examine
the
interactive
effects
ozone,
climate
on
terrestrial
biogeochemical
cycles
context
Montreal
Protocol.
We
specifically
assess
organisms,
agriculture
food
supply,
biodiversity,
ecosystem
services
feedbacks
system.
Emphasis
is
placed
role
extreme
events
altering
exposure
potential
biodiversity.
also
address
responses
plants
increased
temporal
variability
radiation,
change
(e.g.
drought,
temperature)
crops,
driving
breakdown
organic
matter
from
dead
plant
material
(i.e.
litter)
biocides
(pesticides
herbicides).
Our
assessment
indicates
that
interact
various
ways
affect
structure
function
ecosystems,
by
protecting
layer,
Protocol
continues
play
a
vital
maintaining
healthy,
diverse
land
sustain
life
Earth.
Furthermore,
its
Kigali
Amendment
mitigating
some
negative
consequences
limiting
emissions
greenhouse
gases
carbon
sequestration
vegetation
pool.
Communications Earth & Environment,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
3(1)
Опубликована: Окт. 17, 2022
Abstract
High-intensity
wildland
fires
can
produce
extreme
flaming
and
smoke
emissions
that
develop
into
a
fire-cloud
chimney,
reaching
the
upper
troposphere
or
lower
stratosphere.
Termed
pyrocumulonimbus,
these
storms
are
both
conventional
counterintuitive.
They
have
been
observed
to
lightning,
hail,
downdraft
wind
hazards,
tornadoes
as
expected
with
severe
convective
storms,
but
counterintuitively,
they
not
associated
significant
precipitation.
Pyrocumulonimbus
noticed
outside
wildfire
expert
circles
following
Australia’s
Black
Summer
in
2019/20,
since
repeatedly
made
headlines
United
States.
However,
much
is
unknown
about
their
behavior,
energetics,
history,
impact
on
Earth/atmosphere
system.
We
address
several
questions
science
challenges
related
unknowns.
Our
worldwide
record
of
pyrocumulonimbus
events
from
2013
2021
shows
phenomenon
neither
new
nor
rare.
Despite
high
occurrences
2019
2021,
data
do
support
identification
trend.
Future
studies
require
an
expansive
occurrence
globally
regionally,
historically
continuously
forward
time.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
22(14), С. 9299 - 9311
Опубликована: Июль 20, 2022
Abstract.
As
a
consequence
of
extreme
heat
and
drought,
record-breaking
wildfires
developed
ravaged
south-eastern
Australia
during
the
fire
season
2019–2020.
The
strength
reached
its
paroxysmal
phase
at
turn
year
During
this
phase,
pyrocumulonimbus
clouds
(pyroCb)
injected
biomass
burning
aerosols
gases
into
upper
troposphere
lower
stratosphere
(UTLS).
UTLS
aerosol
layer
was
massively
perturbed
by
these
fires,
with
extinction
increased
factor
3
in
visible
spectral
range
Southern
Hemisphere,
respect
to
background
atmosphere,
stratospheric
optical
depth
reaching
values
as
large
0.015
February
2020.
Using
best
available
description
event
observations,
we
estimate
radiative
forcing
(RF)
such
perturbations
Hemispheric
layer.
We
use
offline
transfer
modelling
driven
observed
information
perturbation
variability
obtained
from
limb
satellite
measurements.
Based
on
hypotheses
absorptivity
angular
scattering
properties
layer,
regional
(at
three
latitude
bands
Hemisphere)
clear-sky
TOA
(top-of-atmosphere)
RF
is
found
varying
small
positive
relatively
negative
(up
−2.0
W
m−2),
surface
be
consistently
−4.5
m−2).
argue
that
are
unlikely
for
event,
if
ageing/mixing
plume
mirrored
evolution
properties.
Our
area-weighted
global-equivalent
-0.35±0.21
(TOA
RF)
-0.94±0.26
m−2
(surface
RF),
thus
strongest
documented
comparable
magnitude
volcanic
eruptions
post-Pinatubo
era.
surplus
surface,
TOA,
due
absorption
within
has
contributed
generation
ascending
smoke
vortices
stratosphere.
Highly
reflective
underlying
surfaces,
like
clouds,
can
nevertheless
swap
RF,
global
average
high
+1.0
assuming
highly
absorbing
particles.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
49(10)
Опубликована: Май 21, 2022
Abstract
The
latter
months
of
2020
and
2021
were
marked
by
two
the
largest
Antarctic
ozone
holes
on
record.
That
such
large
occurred
despite
ongoing
recovery
raises
questions
about
their
origins
climate
impacts.
Here
we
provide
novel
evidence
that
supports
hypothesis
influenced
distinct
extraordinary
events:
Australian
wildfires
early
eruption
La
Soufriere
in
2021.
We
further
reveal
both
associated
with
widespread
changes
Southern
Hemisphere
are
consistent
established
impacts
depletion,
including
a
strengthening
polar
stratospheric
vortex,
enhanced
surface
westerlies
over
Ocean,
temperature
Antarctica
Australia.
results
thus
suggestive
injections
wildfire
smoke
volcanic
emissions
into
stratosphere
can
lead
to
hemispheric‐scale
climate.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(2)
Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2023
Abstract
Southern
Australia's
rainfall
is
highly
variable
and
influenced
by
factors
across
scales
from
synoptic
weather
to
large‐scale
circulation
remote
climate
modes
of
variability.
Anthropogenic
change
natural
variability
modulate
these
their
interactions.
However,
studies
often
focus
on
changes
in
selected
parts
the
system
with
less
emphasis
as
a
whole.
As
such,
it
difficult
gain
complete
understanding
how
southern
responds
broad‐scale
system.
We
step
through
existing
literature
long‐term
synoptic‐to‐large‐scale
atmospheric
drivers
form
more
story
Australia.
This
process
reveals
that
most
robust
observed
winter
decline
consistent
several
changing
climatic
factors:
decreasing
systems,
strengthening
subtropical
ridge,
poleward
shifts
Hadley
Cell
Annular
Mode,
increasing
frequency
positive
Indian
Ocean
Dipole
events.
In
other
seasons,
particularly
summer,
may
not
agree
changes,
highlighting
gaps
our
knowledge
dynamics
processes.
Future
work
should
research
temporal‐
spatial‐scales,
better
jet
interactions,
influence
stratospheric
processes
troposphere,
instances
contrasting
trends
Australian
changes.
article
categorized
under:
Paleoclimates
Current
Trends
>
Modern
Climate
Change
Detection
Attribution
Assessing
Impacts
Observed
The
eruption
of
the
Hunga
Tonga-Hunga
Ha'apai
volcano
on
15
January
2022
offered
a
good
opportunity
to
explore
early
impacts
tropical
volcanic
eruptions
stratospheric
composition.
Balloon-borne
observations
near
Réunion
Island
revealed
unprecedented
amount
water
vapor
injected
by
volcano.
enhanced
humidity,
radiative
cooling,
and
expanded
aerosol
surface
area
in
plume
created
ideal
conditions
for
swift
ozone
depletion
5%
stratosphere
just
1
week.
decrease
hydrogen
chloride
0.4
parts
per
million
volume
(ppbv)
increase
chlorine
monoxide
ppbv
provided
compelling
evidence
activation
within
plume.
This
study
enhances
our
understanding
effect
this
unusual
chemistry
provides
insights
into
possible
changes
that
may
occur
changing
climate.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
128(22)
Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2023
Abstract
The
Hunga
Tonga‐Hunga
Ha'apai
(HTHH)
volcanic
eruption
in
January
2022
injected
unprecedented
amounts
of
water
vapor
(H
2
O)
and
a
moderate
amount
the
aerosol
precursor
sulfur
dioxide
(SO
)
into
Southern
Hemisphere
(SH)
tropical
stratosphere.
H
O
perturbations
have
persisted
during
early
2023
dispersed
throughout
atmosphere.
Observations
show
large‐scale
SH
stratospheric
cooling,
equatorward
shift
Antarctic
polar
vortex
slowing
Brewer‐Dobson
circulation.
Satellite
observations
substantial
ozone
reductions
over
winter
midlatitudes
that
coincide
with
largest
circulation
anomalies.
Chemistry‐climate
model
simulations
forced
by
realistic
HTHH
inputs
SO
qualitatively
reproduce
observed
evolution
plumes
first
year,
exhibits
changes
effects
similar
to
behavior.
agreement
demonstrates
are
caused
influences.