Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Reviews of Geophysics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 60(3)

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2022

Abstract Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, perpetuating change. Here, we review current understanding of impacts on weather (weather conditions conducive to ignition spread wildfires) consequences for regional activity as mediated by a range other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity lightning) ignition, suppression, land use). Through supplemental analyses, present stocktake trends in burned area (BA) during recent decades, examine how relates its drivers. Fire controls annual timing fires most regions also drives inter‐annual variability BA Mediterranean, Pacific US high latitude forests. Increases frequency extremity been globally pervasive due 1979–2019, meaning landscapes are primed burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases ∼50% or higher seen some extratropical forest ecoregions including high‐latitude forests 2001–2019, though interannual remains large these regions. Nonetheless, can override relationship between weather. For example, savannahs strongly patterns fuel production fragmentation naturally fire‐prone agriculture. Similarly, tropical relate deforestation rates degradation than changing Overall, has reduced 27% past two part decline African savannahs. According models, prevalence already emerged beyond pre‐industrial Mediterranean change, emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels warming. Moreover, several major wildfires experienced years, Australian bushfires 2019/2020, occurred amidst were considerably likely Current models incompletely reproduce observed spatial based their existing representations relationships controls, historical vary across models. Advances observation controlling supporting addition optimization processes exerting upwards pressure intensity weather, this escalate with each increment global Improvements better interactions climate, extremes, humans required predict future mitigate against consequences.

Язык: Английский

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A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(5), С. 333 - 350

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Understanding Fire Regimes for a Better Anthropocene

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 48(1), С. 207 - 235

Опубликована: Авг. 31, 2023

Fire is an integral part of the Earth System and humans have skillfully used fire for millennia. Yet human activities are scaling up reinforcing each other in ways that reshaping patterns across planet. We review these changes using concept regime, which describes timing, location, type fires. then explore consequences regime on biological, chemical, physical processes sustain life Earth. Anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, invasive species shifting regimes creating environments unlike any humanity has previously experienced. Although exposure to extreme wildfire events increasing, we highlight how knowledge can be mobilized achieve a wide range goals, from reducing carbon emissions promoting biodiversity well-being. A perspective critical navigating toward sustainable future—a better Anthropocene.

Язык: Английский

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Drought-related wildfire accounts for one-third of the forest wildfires in subtropical China

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 346, С. 109893 - 109893

Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2024

Язык: Английский

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The use of fire to preserve biodiversity under novel fire regimes

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1924)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Novel fire regimes are emerging worldwide and pose substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation. Addressing these mitigating their impacts on will require developing a wide range of management practices. In this paper, we leverage research across taxa, ecosystems continents highlight strategies for applying knowledge in First, define novel outline different practices contemporary landscapes from parts the world. Next, synthesize recent use biodiversity, provide decision-making framework conservation under regimes. We recommend that preserving should consider both social ecological factors, iterative learning informed by effective monitoring, testing new actions. An integrated approach about help navigate complexities preserve rapidly changing This article is part theme issue ‘Novel climate changes human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses feedbacks’.

Язык: Английский

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Climate, vegetation, people: disentangling the controls of fire at different timescales

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1924)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Human activities have a major impact on fire regimes. that cause landscape fragmentation, such as creating roads and other infrastructure or converting areas to agriculture, tend restrict, rather than promote, fire. The human influence is complex, however, the of fragmentation regime depends climate vegetation conditions. Climate-induced changes in fuel loads also affect natural ways independent influence. Disentangling controls regimes challenging because multiple interactions between climate, vegetation, people fire, different timescales over which they operate. We explore these relationships, drawing statistical modelling analyses palaeoenvironmental, historical recent observations at regional global scales. show how relationships changed through time vary spatially function environmental biotic gradients. Specifically, we climate-driven been most important drivers changing least until Industrial Revolution. Statistical no discernible hunter–gatherer communities, even time-transgressive introduction agriculture during Neolithic had scale. post-industrial expansion was an fires, but since late 19th century, overwhelming humans has reduce progressive influencing ignitions. Model projections suggest reduction will be outweighed by climatically driven increases end 21st century. This article part theme issue ‘Novel under influences: impacts, ecosystem responses feedbacks’.

Язык: Английский

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Global environmental controls on wildfire burnt area, size, and intensity

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 17(6), С. 065004 - 065004

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2022

Abstract Fire is an important influence on the global patterns of vegetation structure and composition. Wildfire included as a distinct process in many dynamic models but limited current understanding fire regimes restricts these models’ ability to reproduce more than broadest geographic patterns. Here we present statistical analysis controls remotely sensed burnt area (BA), size (FS), derived metric related intensity (FI). Separate generalized linear were fitted observed monthly fractional BA from Global Emissions Database (GFEDv4), median FS Atlas, radiative power MCD14ML dataset normalized by square root FS. The three initially constructed common set 16 predictors; only strongest predictors for each model retained final models. It shown that primarily driven fuel availability dryness; conditions promoting spread; FI tree cover road density. Both are constrained landscape fragmentation, whereas moisture. Ignition sources (lightning human population) positively (after accounting density), negatively FI. These findings imply different BA, need be considered process-based They highlight include measures fragmentation well load dryness, pay close attention spread.

Язык: Английский

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Assessing the predictive efficacy of six machine learning algorithms for the susceptibility of Indian forests to fire

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 31(8), С. 735 - 758

Опубликована: Июль 20, 2022

Increasing numbers and intensity of forest fires indicate that forests have become susceptible to in the tropics. We assessed susceptibility fire India by comparing six machine learning (ML) algorithms. identified best-suited ML algorithms for triggering a prediction model, using minimal parameters related forests, climate topography. Specifically, we used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspots from 2001 2020 as training data. The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (ROC/AUC) rate showed Support Vector Machine (SVM) (ROC/AUC = 0.908) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) 0.903) show excellent performance. By large, our results north-east central lower Himalayan regions were highly fires. Importantly, significance this study lies fact it is possibly among first predict Indian context, an integrated approach comprising ML, Google Earth Engine (GEE) Climate (CE).

Язык: Английский

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Specific leaf area and vapour pressure deficit control live fuel moisture content

Functional Ecology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 37(3), С. 719 - 731

Опубликована: Янв. 19, 2023

Abstract The live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is an important precondition for wildfire activity, yet it remains challenging to predict LFMC due the dynamic interplay between atmospheric and hydrological conditions that determine plant's access to, loss of water. We monitored a range plant water‐use traits (predawn midday leaf water potentials [Ψ ]), (specific area [SLA]), status (soil [SWC] in shallow layer full profile) variables (air temperature, vapour pressure deficit [VPD], CO 2 concentrations) mature eucalypt woodland at Eucalyptus Free‐Air Enrichment (EucFACE) facility during drought. combined traits, into biophysical model dynamics, compared these with predictions based on satellite established relationships Ψ from pressure–volume curves. Predawn could be well predicted changes SWC, but variation were more responsive than variables. explained up 89% variability outperformed approaches LFMC. SLA was single most variable LFMC, followed by VPD, which 33% remaining Our study demonstrates co‐variation affect drought, suggesting new way forward predicting combining satellite‐based models seasonal forecasts meteorological Read free Plain Language Summary this article Journal blog.

Язык: Английский

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Vegetation recovery drivers at short-term after fire are plant community-dependent in mediterranean burned landscapes

Forest Ecology and Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 539, С. 121034 - 121034

Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2023

Язык: Английский

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