The optimal spatially-dependent control measures to effectively and economically eliminate emerging infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons
Fan Xia, Yanni Xiao, Junling Ma

и другие.

PLoS Computational Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 20(10), С. e1012498 - e1012498

Опубликована: Окт. 7, 2024

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective in mitigating infections during the early stages of an infectious disease outbreak. However, these measures incur significant economic and livelihood costs. To address this, we developed optimal control framework aimed at identifying strategies that minimize such costs while ensuring full a cross-regional outbreak emerging diseases. Our approach uses spatial SEIR model with for epidemic process, incorporates population flow gravity dependent on gross domestic product (GDP) geographical distance. We applied this to identify strategy COVID-19 caused by Delta variant Xi’an City, Shaanxi, China, between December 2021 January 2022. The was parameterized fitting it daily case data from each district City. findings indicate increase basic reproduction number, latent period or leads prolonged larger final size. This indicates diseases greater transmissibility more challenging costly control, so is important governments quickly cases implement strategies. Indeed, identified suggests should be implemented as soon they deemed necessary. results demonstrate regimes exhibit spatial, economic, heterogeneity. More populated economically regions require robust regular surveillance mechanism ensure timely detection imported infections. Regions higher GDP tend experience larger-scale epidemics and, consequently, Notably, our proposed significantly reduced compared actual expenditures

Язык: Английский

No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020 DOI Creative Commons
Kentaro Fukumoto, Charles T. McClean, Kuninori Nakagawa

и другие.

Nature Medicine, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 27(12), С. 2111 - 2119

Опубликована: Окт. 27, 2021

Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome 2, school closures are one of most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus effectiveness these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess effect in Japan on reducing spread COVID-19 spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools closed that is similar terms potential confounders, can estimate how many cases would had if it its schools. We do find any evidence reduced COVID-19. Our null results suggest should be reexamined given negative consequences for children and parents.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

78
Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space DOI Creative Commons
Yong Ge, Wenbin Zhang, Haiyan Liu

и другие.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 106, С. 102649 - 102649

Опубликована: Дек. 12, 2021

Governments worldwide have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, effect of these individual NPI measures across space and time has yet be sufficiently assessed, especially with increase policy fatigue urge for relaxation in vaccination era. Using decay ratio suppression infections multi-source big data, we investigated changing performance different NPIs waves from global regional levels (in 133 countries) national subnational United States America [USA]) scales before implementation mass vaccination. The synergistic effectiveness all reducing declined along waves, 95.4% first wave 56.0% third recently at level similarly 83.3% 58.7% USA level, while it had fluctuating on scales. Regardless geographical scale, gathering restrictions facial coverings played significant roles epidemic mitigation vaccine rollout. Our findings important implications continued tailoring strategies, together vaccination, future caused by new variants, other emerging respiratory infectious diseases.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

62
Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic DOI
Shari Krishnaratne, Hannah Littlecott, Kerstin Sell

и другие.

Cochrane library, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 2022(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 17, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

56
Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review DOI
Weiwei Zhang, Shiyong Liu, Nathaniel Osgood

и другие.

Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 40(1), С. 207 - 234

Опубликована: Авг. 19, 2022

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based (ABM) and discrete event (DES), their hybrids in COVID-19 research identifies theoretical application innovations public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 prediction pandemic 67 investigated impacts COVID-19. ABM was used 275 followed by 54 SDM 32 DES papers 11 hybrid papers. Evaluation design intervention scenarios are most widely addressed area accounting for 55% four main categories, COVID-19, pandemic, evaluation societal impact assessment. The complexities demand models can simultaneously capture micro macro aspects socio-economic systems involved.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

28
Estimated Transmission Outcomes and Costs of SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Testing, Screening, and Surveillance Strategies Among a Simulated Population of Primary School Students DOI Open Access
Alyssa Bilinski, Andrea Ciaranello, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick

и другие.

JAMA Pediatrics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 176(7), С. 679 - 679

Опубликована: Апрель 20, 2022

Importance

In addition to illness, the COVID-19 pandemic has led historic educational disruptions. March 2021, federal government allocated $10 billion for testing in US schools.

Objective

Costs and benefits of strategies were evaluated context full-time, in-person kindergarten through eighth grade (K-8) education at different community incidence levels.

Design, Setting, Participants

An updated version a previously published agent-based network model was used simulate transmission elementary middle school communities United States. Assuming dominance delta SARS-CoV-2 variant, simulated an (638 students grades K-5, 60 staff) (460 6-8, 51 staff).

Exposures

Multiple faculty/staff, including expanded diagnostic (test stay) designed avoid symptom-based isolation contact quarantine, screening (routinely asymptomatic individuals identify infections contain transmission), surveillance (testing random sample undetected trigger additional investigation or interventions).

Main Outcomes Measures

Projections included 30-day cumulative infection, proportion cases detected, planned unplanned days out school, cost programs, childcare costs associated with strategies. For policies, per infection averted staff estimated, surveillance, probability correctly falsely triggering outbreak response estimated attack rates.

Results

Compared quarantine test-to-stay policies are similar model-projected transmission, mean less than 0.25 student month isolation. Weekly universal is approximately 50% in-school one-seventh one-half societal hybrid remote schooling. The by weekly lowest schools vaccination, fewer other mitigation measures, higher levels transmission. settings where local unknown rapidly changing, may detect moderate large outbreaks resources compared schoolwide screening.

Conclusions Relevance

this modeling study population primary COVID-19, and/or tests facilitated consistent attendance low risk across range incidence. Surveillance useful reduced-cost option detecting identifying environments that would benefit from increased mitigation.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

16
Social contact patterns relevant for infectious disease transmission in Cambodia DOI Creative Commons
William T. M. Leung, Aronrag Meeyai, Hannah Holt

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2023

Abstract Social mixing patterns are key determinants of infectious disease transmission. Mathematical models parameterised with empirical data from contact pattern surveys have played an important role in understanding epidemic dynamics and informing control strategies, including for SARS-CoV-2. However, there is a paucity on social many settings. We conducted community-based survey Cambodia 2012 to characterise generate setting-specific matrices according age urban/rural populations. Data were collected using diary-based approach 2016 participants, selected by stratified random sampling. Contact highly age-assortative, clear intergenerational between household members. Both home school high-intensity settings, 27.7% contacts occurring at non-household differed rural urban residents; participants tended more mixing, higher number outside home, work or school. Participants had low spatial mobility, 88% within 1 km the participants’ homes. These broaden evidence-base middle-income countries Southeast Asia, highlight within-country heterogeneities which may be consider when modelling pathogens transmitted via close contact.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

9
Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak DOI Creative Commons
Sean M. Moore, Sean Cavany, T. Alex Perkins

и другие.

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100759 - 100759

Опубликована: Март 2, 2024

Over the past several years, emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has led to multiple waves increased COVID-19 incidence. When Omicron variant emerged, there was considerable concern about its potential impact in winter 2021-2022 due fitness. However, also uncertainty regarding likely questions relative transmissibility, severity, and degree immune escape. We sought evaluate ability an agent-based model forecast incidence context this emerging pathogen variant. To project cases deaths Indiana, we calibrated our hospitalizations, deaths, test-positivity rates through November 2021, then projected April 2022 under four different scenarios that covered plausible ranges Omicron's Our initial projections from December 2021 March indicated a pessimistic scenario with high disease peak weekly Indiana would be larger than previous 2020. retrospective analyses indicate severity closer optimistic scenario, even though hospitalizations reached new peak, fewer occurred during peak. According results, rapid spread consistent combination higher transmissibility escape earlier variants. updated starting January accurately predicted mid-January decline rapidly over next months. The performance shows following variant, models can help quantify range outbreak magnitudes trajectories. Agent-based are particularly useful these because they efficiently track individual vaccination infection histories varying degrees cross-protection.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space DOI Creative Commons
Yong Ge, Wenbin Zhang, Haiyan Liu

и другие.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2021, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 6, 2021

Abstract Governments worldwide have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, effect of these individual NPI measures across space and time has yet be sufficiently assessed, especially with increase policy fatigue urge for relaxation in vaccination era. Using decay ratio suppression infections, we investigated changing performance different NPIs waves from global regional levels (in 133 countries) national subnational United States America [USA]) scales before implementation mass vaccination. The synergistic effectiveness all reducing infections declined along waves, 95.4% first wave 56.0% third recently at level similarly 83.3% 58.7% USA level, while it had fluctuating on scales. Regardless geographical scale, gathering restrictions facial coverings played significant roles epidemic mitigation vaccine rollout. Our findings important implications continued tailoring strategies, together vaccination, future caused by new variants, other emerging respiratory infectious diseases.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

20
Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations DOI Creative Commons
Jennifer R. Head, Kristin L. Andrejko, Justin V. Remais

и другие.

The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5, С. 100133 - 100133

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2021

We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

20
Longitudinal social contacts among school-aged children during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Bay Area Contacts among Kids (BACK) study DOI Creative Commons
Kristin L. Andrejko, Jennifer R. Head, Joseph A. Lewnard

и другие.

BMC Infectious Diseases, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 22(1)

Опубликована: Март 10, 2022

The San Francisco Bay Area was the first region in United States to enact school closures mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. effects of on contact patterns for schoolchildren and their household members remain poorly understood.We conducted serial cross-sectional surveys (May 2020, September February 2021) households with children estimate age-structured daily rates adult members. We examined changes over course COVID-19 pandemic, including after vaccination members, compared by demographics using generalized estimating equations clustered household.We captured histories 1,967 behalf 2,674 children, comprising 15,087 non-household contacts three waves data collection. Shortly start shelter-in-place orders May were higher among from Hispanic families (1.52 more per child day; [95% CI: 1.14-2.04]), whose parents unable work home (1.82; [1.40-2.40]), income < $150,000 (1.75; [1.33-2.33]), adjusting other demographic characteristics clustering. Between August increased 145% (ages 5-12) 172% 13-17), despite few returning in-person instruction. Non-household higher-by 1.75 [1.28-2.40] 1.42 [0.89-2.24] day 5-12 13-17 age groups, respectively, where at least one vaccinated against COVID-19, children's unvaccinated households.Child rebounded schools remaining closed, as obtained childcare, engaged non-school settings, family vaccinated. waning reductions observed during a prolonged closure suggests strategy may be ineffective long-term transmission mitigation. Reductions age-assortative not apparent amongst lower or adults could home. Heterogeneous raise concerning racial, ethnic income-based inequities associated mitigation strategy.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

14