A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 378(1881)

Опубликована: Май 29, 2023

The causes of biodiversity change are great scientific interest and central to policy efforts aimed at meeting targets. Changes in species diversity high rates compositional turnover have been reported worldwide. In many cases, trends detected, but these rarely causally attributed possible drivers. A formal framework guidelines for the detection attribution is needed. We propose an inferential guide analyses, which identifies five steps—causal modelling, observation, estimation, attribution—for robust attribution. This workflow provides evidence relation hypothesized impacts multiple potential drivers can eliminate putative from contention. encourages a reproducible statement confidence about role after methods trend deployed. Confidence requires that data analyses used all steps follow best practices reducing uncertainty each step. illustrate with examples. could strengthen bridge between science support effective actions halt loss this has on ecosystems. article part theme issue ‘Detecting attributing change: needs, gaps solutions’.

Язык: Английский

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Self-organization as a mechanism of resilience in dryland ecosystems

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(6)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Self-organized spatial patterns are a common feature of complex systems, ranging from microbial communities to mussel beds and drylands. While the theoretical implications these for ecosystem-level processes, such as functioning resilience, have been extensively studied, empirical evidence remains scarce. To address this gap, we analyzed global drylands along an aridity gradient using remote sensing, field data, modeling. We found that structure vegetation strengthens increases, which is associated with maintenance high level soil multifunctionality, even levels rise up certain threshold. The combination results those two individual-based models indicate self-organized not only form in response stressful environmental conditions but also provide ability adapt changing while maintaining their functioning, adaptive capacity lost degraded ecosystems. Self-organization thereby plays vital role enhancing resilience Overall, our findings contribute deeper understanding relationship between dryland resilience. They represent significant step forward development indicators ecosystem critical tools managing preserving valuable ecosystems warmer more arid world.

Язык: Английский

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A perspective on green, blue, and grey spaces, biodiversity, microbiota, and human health

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 892, С. 164772 - 164772

Опубликована: Июнь 10, 2023

Humans have lived from equator to poles for millennia but are now increasingly intruding into the wild spaces of other species and steadily extruding ourselves our own spaces, with a profound impact on: relationship natural world; survival species; pollution; climate change; etc. We yet grasp how these changes directly health. The primary focus this paper is on beneficial influence proximity environment. summarize evidence associations between exposure green space blue improvements in In contrast, grey - urban landscape largely presents hazards as well reducing isolating us discuss various hypotheses that might explain why green, blue, affect health particularly importance biodiversity hypothesis role microbiota. possible mechanisms routes air, soil, water. highlight problem assessment, noting many current tools not fit purpose understanding space, aerosols, soils, briefly differences indigenous perspectives nature environment more dominant international-science view. Finally, we present research gaps future directions, focusing ways which even absence full by begin implement policies restore some balance aim large global burden ill

Язык: Английский

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Toward a cohesive understanding of ecological complexity

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9(25)

Опубликована: Июнь 21, 2023

Ecological systems are quintessentially complex systems. Understanding and being able to predict phenomena typical of is, therefore, critical progress in ecology conservation amidst escalating global environmental change. However, myriad definitions complexity excessive reliance on conventional scientific approaches hamper conceptual advances synthesis. may be better understood by following the solid theoretical basis system science (CSS). We review features ecological described within CSS conduct bibliometric text mining analyses characterize articles that refer complexity. Our demonstrate study is a highly heterogeneous, endeavor only weakly related CSS. Current research trends typically organized around basic theory, scaling, macroecology. leverage our generalities identified suggest more coherent cohesive way forward ecology.

Язык: Английский

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What Musicking Affords

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2025

The last three decades of work in cognitive science have challenged the idea that thinking occurs entirely head, claiming instead cognition is embodied, embedded, extended, and enactive. claims 4E challenge dominance computational approaches to cognition, music scholars explored Gibson's notion affordances propose a new understanding musical performance as primarily grounded action. This Element draws from paradigms such enactive cybernetic systems-theoretical approaches, phenomenological perspectives on practice, theory affordances, aspects author's own practice multi-instrumentalist consider cases how interface between musician instrument influences performance.

Язык: Английский

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Revisiting Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning through the Lens of Complex Adaptive Systems

Diversity, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(8), С. 895 - 895

Опубликована: Июль 28, 2023

Understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is essential to comprehend impacts of changes on functioning. This knowledge helps detect anticipate significant trends in global loss homogenization biota worldwide prevent them. Species act together with climate, resource availability, disturbance regimes modulate ecological processes defining ecosystems’ complexity their dynamic adaptation variability. In this article, we revisit BEF paradigm by addressing current how connects across scales context complex adaptive systems (CAS). We focus that lead emergence relationship, considering as a macroscopic emergent property. Specifically, work integrates connect It addresses supports multifunctionality scales, resulting persistence CAS rapidly changing world. present framework for management within scope CAS. The standpoint brings new insights into field its relevance future conservation Earth’s life support.

Язык: Английский

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Eco‐evolution from deep time to contemporary dynamics: The role of timescales and rate modulators

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 26(S1)

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2023

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, or eco-evolution for short, are often thought to involve rapid demography (ecology) and equally heritable phenotypic changes (evolution) leading novel, emergent system behaviours. We argue that this focus on contemporary dynamics is too narrow: Eco-evolution should be extended, first, beyond pure include all environmental dimensions and, second, slow which unfolds over thousands millions of years. This extension allows us conceptualise biological systems as occupying a two-dimensional time space along axes capture the speed ecology evolution. Using Hutchinson's analogy: Time 'theatre' in evolution two interacting 'players'. therefore dynamic: identify modulators ecological evolutionary rates, like temperature sensitivity mutation, can change evolution, hence impact eco-evolution. Environmental may synchronise via these rate modulators, increasing occurrence represents substantial challenges prediction, especially context global change. Our perspective attempts integrate across disciplines, from gene-regulatory networks geomorphology timescales, today deep time.

Язык: Английский

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Catálogo Taxonômico da Fauna do Brasil: Setting the baseline knowledge on the animal diversity in Brazil

Zoologia (Curitiba), Год журнала: 2024, Номер 41

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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How can physiology best contribute to wildlife conservation in a warming world?

Conservation Physiology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Global warming is now predicted to exceed 1.5°C by 2033 and 2°C the end of 21st century. This level associated environmental variability are already increasing pressure on natural human systems. Here we emphasize role physiology in light latest assessment climate Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change. We describe how can contribute contemporary conservation programmes. focus thermal responses animals, but acknowledge that impacts change much broader phylogenetically environmentally. A physiological contribution would encompass monitoring, coupled with measuring individual sensitivities temperature upscaling these ecosystem level. The version widely accepted Conservation Standards designed Measures Partnership includes several explicit considerations. argue has a unique play addressing Moreover, be incorporated institutions organizations range from international bodies national governments local communities, doing so, it brings mechanistic approach management biological resources.

Язык: Английский

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Realising the promise of large data and complex models

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1), С. 4 - 11

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

In an era of rapid change, ecologists are increasingly asked to provide answers big, urgent questions global concern (Solé & Levin, 2022; Sutherland et al., 2013; Yates 2018). Concurrently, technological advances allow ecological data be collected at high resolutions (e.g. temporal and/or spatial scales), leading both new types and larger datasets becoming available (Farley These the opportunity investigate new, even previously unanswerable, questions, including those concerning animal movements (Nathan 2022) addressing conservation sustainability issues (Runting 2022). Increasingly, realistic models need developed fitted these (Fer 2018), pushing boundaries type intricacy that can explored (Niu 2020). However, big lead troubles across multiple aspects, from storing processing fitting complex interpreting output. Close collaborations between ecologists, statisticians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists other disciplines offer exciting ways forward solve problems, mutually beneficial advancements. For example, aid in efficient storage extraction data, development algorithms; statisticians help guide analysis via computational algorithms propagating or quantifying uncertainties throughout process; mathematicians ensure constructed most suitable fashion for specific demonstrate properties (such as territorial ranges population predictions); on biological characteristics systems studied interpretation corresponding results, thus informing future influencing policy decisions. The answer important is unprecedented, with declines biodiversity ecosystem services which will impact our ability meet Sustainable Development Goals (Reyers Selig, 2020), it through interdisciplinary biggest steps made. Data challenges arise full analytic pipeline, visualising developing ecologically relevant interpretable fit adapting associated efficiently obtaining meaningful interpretations practice, there often many trade-offs different aspects due during pipeline. within initial decisions may made regarding cleaning remove recorded errors) summarised form processed report scale). This itself challenging uncertainty process, potential errors being introduced. typically model data. motion-sensor camera trap a trade-off level (i.e. advanced tools used uniquely identifying individuals via, e.g. machine learning techniques) incorporate amount preprocessed assuming no error matches; incorporating matching uncertainty; allowing marked unmarked individuals). Alternatively, require computationally intensive them not scale increase size. consideration simpler more easily fitted, reducing fine-detail extracted data; adaptations model-fitting process such using some approximate approach aims robust approximations used, but potentially could biased parameter estimates. Special Feature provides combination review papers scientific articles address one modern day analyses large Echoing facing discipline, we present natural statistical cycle, starting limitations (and packages) presentation outputs. We consider each themes identified turn relating (i) (ii) model-fitting; (iii) visualisation interpretation. also emphasise very closely interlinked although have coarse 'pigeonholes', overlapping challenges. Ecology, like environmental sciences branches biology, has entered into enormous possibilities better understanding state 'big' characteristics. 'Four Vs Framework' (see discussion Farley al. (2018) references therein) discuss four distinct aspects: (1) volume: quantity (2) velocity: time-varying (3) variety: relationships; (4) veracity: trustworthiness do occur isolation, intricate when analysing highlight just problems approaches 'V' authors this encountered discussed. Biologging sensor technologies been forefront creating volumes frequently range scales. Thus, biologging pioneering ecology relation rapidly transform ecology, particularly their application Williams A key limitation current systems, however, collecting ultra-fine sub-second movement behaviour over shorter periods time vs. longer-term space use Wild (2023) take advantage developments field Internet Things methods attaching electronic devices, connected network, everyday objects) overcome networking Wi-Fi solutions, combined smart embedded software, able orders magnitude improvement retrieval efficiency, systems. particular, detail solutions software architecture, on-board difficulties synchronisation transmission concept pros cons infrastructures. Advances technology led (perhaps less foreseen) forms gathering mechanisms gaining momentum, build-up quantities rise citizen (or community) science initiatives. resulting initiatives varied nature, involving collection protocols limited/reduced structure than compared traditional survey methods, arising opportunistic events. While designed surveys requires carefully markedly semi-structured projects, example without fixed by observers any degree observer knowledge. leads whole spectrum 4 'V's. commonality terms similar overcome, expanse techniques, vary. Johnston summarise overarching categories challenges: behaviour, including, bias, reporting differences, false-positive errors; structures, measures detectability procedures validation; models, only opportunities provided integration multispecies sources bias limitations; (iv) communication, motivated monitoring. veracity arises obvious ways, outside sphere 'in field', commonly considered reason querying wealth information contained databases. combine information, must species taxa. raises methodological challenges, to, dynamic names, discovery species, changing attributes, etc. As result, homonyms, synonyms accumulate while taxa general consensus accepted name taxonomic phylogenetic relationships reached so taxonomy resemble confusingly tangled bank. To issues, Grenié extensive tools, databases best practices harmonising taxon names studies. they categorise 'wild world' existing publicly resources, along axes breadth scope, strengths caveats database. addition, practical computation side, R packages harmonisation, and, perhaps rather fittingly, 'taxonomy' packages, classifying according functions. vast array last decade (Guisan 2017; Hooten Kery Royle, 2016; MacKenzie 2018; McCrea Morgan, 2015; Royle 2014; Schaub Kéry, 2021), limited critical disadvantages each. advancement reflect (as highlighted above), quality increased spatial/temporal resolution), emerging earth observation drone eDNA) techniques power). summary overviews advancing areas timely understand what can, importantly, cannot should not), done encompass all community landscape ecology. Interrogation modelling ideas motivates further account additional complexities example. briefly here Feature. Developing applied scientifically efficient. Such permit readily NIMBLE (de Valpine 2017), R-INLA Lindgren Rue (2015) inlabru (Bachl 2019) well focused MARK/RMARK (for capture–recapture models; Laake, 2013); momentuHMM hidden Markov [HMMs] McClintock Michelot, 2018) Distance distance sampling; Thomas 2010). Areas accessible witnessing substantial development, enhanced flexibility provided. Laxton Torney (2023), Newman discusses relative merits models. Barros step issue suggesting primary challenge, predictive transparently adapted following updated methodology. Their proposal PERFICT workflow framework aligned. Understanding relationship challenging, structuring required form. Two particular 'umbrella' extensively related HMMs state-space (SSMs). Both widely settings presence longitudinal (Auger-Methe 2021; 2021). One attraction applications directly separate out sampling processes. simplifies specification, permitting components independently. common distinction relates whether latent processes defined discrete-valued HMMs) continuous-valued (SSMs), note universally used. Specific where applied, include, far fisheries stock assessment (Aeberhard 2018); dynamics (Newman 2014); (Hooten Langrock 2012; Patterson 2017); capture–recapture-type (King, 2015). Glennie practical) SSMs, respectively. specifying assumptions valid defining HMM underlying increases complexity. Providing descriptions variety aware useful resource practitioners, describing pitfalls arise. growth aided algorithms, Markovian (Zucchini 2016). flexible (latent) addressed (2023). Importantly, contrast wide-range dependent specified model. describe accommodate dynamics, nonlinear non-Gaussian stochasticity. familiar/used community, likely however SSMs great aspect paper. SSMs) expense, complexity increases. With datasets, routinely bioacoustics studies 2023), standard break down practically applied. There hence necessity identify develop modifications improve efficiency scalability, new) successful examples, strategies were successful, efficiencies 2023) demonstrated King (2022), simplifications retain signal promising avenues going forward. scalability algorithms. off-the-shelf sufficient too limiting, described Wang applications. generally known analysis. numerous opportunities, risks building structurally insight popular distribution (SDMs) importance increasing based theory. showcase usefulness point approach, permits inclusion linked covariates (relating study species), maintaining roles effects component, interpretability insight. show that, driving distributions substantially performance ability. Furthermore, non-monotonic, highlighting checking It now possible line drawn complexity's sake because output exhibited data? cases, simple actually useful/informative? long-standing areas, (Murtaugh, 2007). Statistical continue represent generating processes—but always simplification reality—with aiming extract general, (given data). learning) prominence usage (Ho Goethals, Pichler Hartig, 2022), demonstrating good performance, lack parameters. results/output appropriate real intelligent visualisations, beyond wider policy-makers area species' modelling. Traditionally, establish correlation single environment occupies order gain habitat suitability, predict impacts change. growing interest go isolation include interactions (Kissling Pollock 2014) (Buckley 2010) predictability model, parameters become difficult. issue, Powell-Romero feature-based ensemble Through features communities, obtain outperform others, why case. SDMs, argue needs grounded greater since patterns component dimensional, visualisations outputs improved becomes challenging. Traditional dimension reduction considering pair-wise correlations, nuanced insights masked, biases (McInerny McInerny Krzywinski, data/model networks graphs structures. food web us foodwebs complexity; tend simplify therefore needed. Pawluczuk Iskrzyński propose foodweb network) structures combining heatmaps, interactive animated graphs. Van Moorter package ConScape (in Julia) allows users analyse visualise connectivity simply. Further attempting objects contain (non-independent) parts make up complete object skeletons individual bones). focus, method regularised principal compare shape variation multipart morphospaces. accompanying package, community. data) immense. fully capitalise achieving academic societal impact, multidisciplinary pipeline required. number contribute knowledge (though exhaustive list): Immersive interdisciplinarity community's research largest step-changes discipline. cross-fertilisation from, engineers (designing devices), (developing exploit designing strategies) (offering expertise automation) co-creation problems. collaboration connection theory; equally stage build confidence results biologically realistic. diverse sizeable amounts (Zipkin continues pace, necessarily lagged timescale (there exist collected). Again, outlook novel yet towards integrating recent years (Frost spanning (Isaac 2020) (Barraquand Gimenez, 2019). means think about indeed comparable—do differing affect performance? small structured unstructured Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), limit latter, context dependency former 2020)? phrase, attributed statistician George Box, apply reasoning idea (accessible software) does mean useful) philosophy 'should we' given dataset, ask necessary question Gain trump sophistication per se. role direction domain (Pichler prediction objective. simply blindly align analytical trends—it driver underpinning usage. 'black-box' nature constraints input, Considerable debate remains validity generalisability, conceptual simplicity, robustness transparency. efforts artificial intelligence power appropriately harnessed evolution. interpreted likelihood-based methods. prominent feature analyses. conducted Bachl 2019 de specialised (Van 2023). languages, Python problem hand. Clear guidance advantages resource, though difficult practice. communication solving inherent focus disseminating circle technical groups. moving code sharing, investing teaching activities resources. They conclude 'democratisation' emulate progress brought democratisation pressing time. scratch surface dealing advance understanding. rich set researchers, recognising pipelines providing produced cross-disciplinary reach its potential, understanding, firm basis informed decision-making. special arose discussions ICMS-funded meeting 'Addressing Challenges Modern Technological Advances', organised National Centre joint BES Quantitative Movement Ecology Interest Group Meeting Sheffield 2018. RM currently funded EPSRC grant EP/S020470/1. peer history article https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway/wos/peer-review/10.1111/2041-210X.14050.

Язык: Английский

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