Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 379(1902)

Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2024

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed tracking recent shifts of European United States (US) birds. Using data from two bird atlases the North American Breeding Bird Survey between 1980s 2010s, analysed overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used assess effect morphological, ecological biogeographic traits metrics. birds shifted ranges north north-eastwards, US westwards. Range unfilling lower than expected by null models, expansion more common unfilling. Also, generally in poorly explained traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor shifting Europe USA while delayed extinctions unfavourable areas seem important. Regional differences could be related land use history monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses provide a useful screening approach for identifying importance transient dynamics time-lagged responses change. This article is part theme issue 'Ecological novelty planetary stewardship: biodiversity transforming biosphere'.

Язык: Английский

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Navigating causal reasoning in sustainability science

AMBIO, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 53(11), С. 1618 - 1631

Опубликована: Июль 17, 2024

Abstract When reasoning about causes of sustainability problems and possible solutions, scientists rely on disciplinary-based understanding cause–effect relations. These disciplinary assumptions enable constrain how causal knowledge is generated, yet they are rarely made explicit. In a multidisciplinary field like science, lack differences in impedes our ability to address complex problems. To support navigating the diversity reasoning, we articulate when during research process researchers engage discuss four common ideas causation that direct it. This articulation provides guidance for make their own choices transparent interpret other researchers’ approaches. Understanding claims justified enables evaluate claims, build collaborations across disciplines, assess whether proposed solutions suitable given problem.

Язык: Английский

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Bending the curve of biodiversity loss requires a ‘satnav’ for nature

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1917)

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Georgina Mace proposed bending the curve of biodiversity loss as a fitting ambition for Convention on Biological Diversity. The new Global Biodiversity Monitoring Framework (GBMF) may increase chances meeting goals and targets in Kunming–Montreal (KMGBF), which requires curve. To meet outcome KMGBF, GBMF should support adaptive policy responses to state biodiversity, turn ‘satnav’ nature. twin pillars such satnav are (i) models predict expected future outcomes today’s choices; (ii) rapid feedback from monitoring enable course corrections model improvement. These same elements will also empower organizations ensure that their actions truly nature-positive, but they not yet written into GBMF. Without satnav, society effectively have try find its way by looking rear-view mirror current headline indicators provide. Drawing contrasts parallels with climate modelling, I discuss challenges indicators, models, data research culture must be overcome if we bend curve, suggest ways forward. This article is part discussion issue ‘Bending towards nature recovery: building Mace's legacy biodiverse future’.

Язык: Английский

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Sources of confusion in global biodiversity trends

Oikos, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2024(6)

Опубликована: Апрель 12, 2024

Populations and ecological communities are changing worldwide, empirical studies exhibit a mixture of either declining or mixed trends. Confusion in global biodiversity trends thus remains, while assessing such changes is major social, political, scientific importance. Part this variability may arise from the difficulty to reliably assess Here, we conducted literature review documenting temporal dynamics biodiversity. We classified differences among approaches, data, methodology used by reviewed papers reveal common findings sources discrepancies. show that reviews meta‐analyses, along with use indicators, more likely conclude declining. On other hand, longer data available, nuanced they generate. Our results also highlight lack providing information on impact synergistic pressures scale, making it even difficult understand driving factors observed how decide conservation plan accordingly. Finally, stress importance taking into account confusion identified, as well complexity changes, order implement effective strategies. In particular, almost systematically assumed be linear, non‐linear largely neglected. Clarifying should strengthen large‐scale monitoring conservation.

Язык: Английский

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Non-linearity and temporal variability are overlooked components of global population dynamics

Опубликована: Янв. 22, 2024

Aim. Population dynamics are usually assessed through linear trend analysis, quantifying their general direction. However, trends may hide substantial variations in population that could reconcile apparent discrepancies when the extent of biodiversity crisis. We seek to determine whether use non-linear methods and quantification temporal variability can add value approach by offering a more complete representation global changes. In addition, we how these components distributed among biogeographical regions taxonomic groups. Location.Global.Methods.We analysed 6,437 time series from 1,257 species Living Planet Database over period 1950-2020. modeled populations second order polynomials classified trajectories according direction acceleration. same using common analysis. quantified three metrics, coefficient variation, mean squared error consecutive disparity index. then used chi-squared tests mixed-effects models test potential sources heterogeneity variability.Results.Non-linear were better fit for 44.8 % analyzed series, was higher as linear. Linear missed meaningful information misclassifying recent declines or recovery signals. Marine highly variable, all groups IUCN categories exhibited degree non-linearity variability.Main conclusions.Non-linearity reveal overlooked dramatic signals dynamics. Thus, moving beyond linearity help reduce risk misleading conclusions inform conservation decisions. particular, « stable » informative variable changes integrate advanced assessment.

Язык: Английский

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Dominant role of grazing and snow cover variability on vegetation shifts in the drylands of Kazakhstan

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 11, 2024

Decomposing the responses of ecosystem structure and function in drylands to changes human-environmental forcing is a pressing challenge. Though trend detection studies are extensive, these often fail attribute them potential spatiotemporal drivers. Most attribution use single empirical model or causal graph that cannot be generalized extrapolated larger scales account for spatial multiple independent processes. Here, we proposed tested multi-stage, multi-model framework detects vegetation trends attributes ten social-environmental system (SES) drivers Kazakhstan (KZ). The time series segmented residual analysis showed 45.71% KZ experienced degradation, with land change as predominant contributor (22.54%; 0.54 million km2), followed by climate variability. Pixel-wise fitted Granger Causality random forest models revealed sheep & goat density snow cover had dominant negative positive impacts on degraded areas, respectively. Overall, SES driver 19.81% (out 2.39 km2). identified degradation hotspots from this study will help identify locations where restoration projects could have greater impact achieve neutrality KZ. A detection, contribution, suggests almost 46% area has grazing variability principal degradation.

Язык: Английский

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Socioeconomic prerequisites determine national long-term biomonitoring efforts

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 370, С. 122431 - 122431

Опубликована: Сен. 7, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Causal discovery in biodiversity-mediated social-ecological systems

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 31, 2024

Abstract Global biodiversity loss and climate change exacerbate feedbacks within social-ecological systems, i.e., between ecosystems, their services well-being of human societies. Our ability to mediate these is hampered by incomplete understanding the underlying causal links, which could benefit from interdisciplinary approaches discover theoretical or empirical links heterogeneous data characteristic studies. We propose a novel framework connecting literature-based knowledge with data-driven inference causality. test this for highly biodiverse island Borneo conducting systematic literature review 7473 studies over 170 years, analysis three conceptual diagrams global change, socio-economics, ecosystem services, biodiversity-ecosystem function using set 227 spatially explicit variables. find that, while natural social processes have been mostly studied independently, already documents across domains related deforestation, food energy. Causal discovery unveiled consistent negative social-economic landscape, function, positive were robust indicator selection addition. detected few weak services. When comparing inferred those documented literature, we that landscape also consistent, uncovered new (potential) not yet described in literature. Significance Statement Addressing Anthropocene requires us recognize societies ecological systems are inherently interconnected complex adaptive systems. enables system dynamics response pressures shocks. While promising, combination ‘big literature’ provides state-of-the-knowledge data’ information discovery. With framework, can specify rigorously test, biodiversity-mediated under examine potential interventions lead much needed sustainable outcomes.

Язык: Английский

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Recovery or reorganisation? Long-term increases in riverine taxonomic and functional diversity are confounded by compositional dynamics

Hydrobiologia, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2024

When evaluating biological recovery, shifts in species identity such as non-native status, specialisation, and functional traits should be examined alongside changes richness. Lithuania, an ecologically overlooked region, serves a crucial reservoir for boreal glacial relict macroinvertebrates. We investigate how why Lithuanian riverine communities have changed during the intensive period of global environmental from 2010 to 2020. Using 41 time-series rivers, we identified taxonomic diversity. Akin observed overall increase both diversity, likely due improved water quality, evidenced by increased dissolved oxygen levels reductions toxic nitrogen phosphorus products. However, increases richness abundance insect indicator taxa were superseded non-insect taxa, including crustaceans, molluscs, annelids. These compositional attributed climatic changes, notably rising temperatures reduced discharge. Biodiversity responses stronger larger which are economically important represent sentinels further upstream changes. While improvements quality benefit various stakeholders continue, prioritising mitigation change top priority cooperation management schemes.

Язык: Английский

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Sources of confusion in global biodiversity trends

Опубликована: Сен. 20, 2023

Populations and ecological communities are changing worldwide, empirical studies exhibit a mixture of either declining or mixed trends. Confusion in global biodiversity trends thus remains while being major social, political, scientific importance. Part this variability may arise from the difficulty to reliably assess Here, we conducted literature review documenting temporal dynamics biodiversity. We classified differences among approaches, data methodology used by reviewed papers reveal common findings sources discrepancies. show that reviews meta-analyses, along with use indicators, more likely conclude declining. On other hand, longer available, nuanced they generate. Our results also highlight lack providing information on impact synergistic pressures scale, making it even difficult understand driving factors observed changes how decide conservation plan accordingly. Finally, stress importance taking into account confusion identified, as well complexity changes, order implement effective strategies. In particular, almost systematically assumed be linear, non-linear largely neglected. Clarifying should strengthen large scale monitoring conservation.

Язык: Английский

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