Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(6), С. 587 - 592

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2022

Abstract Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are known consequence of climate warming contributing regional community change, less about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance different variables prompting such varies with changing remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades data for 1,478 species birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The drivers varied non-uniformly progressing change. turnover among was limited, position niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion responded at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging imprints restructure full biome, making it difficult generalize biodiversity responses raising concerns ecosystem integrity in face accelerating

Язык: Английский

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flexsdm: An r package for supporting a comprehensive and flexible species distribution modelling workflow

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(8), С. 1661 - 1669

Опубликована: Апрель 20, 2022

Abstract Species distribution models (SDM) are widely used in diverse research areas because of their simple data requirements and application versatility. However, SDM outcomes sensitive to input methodological choices. Such sensitivity applications mean that flexibility is necessary create SDMs with tailored protocols for a given set model use. We introduce the r package flexsdm supporting flexible species modelling workflows. functions arguments serve as building blocks construct specific protocol user's needs. The main features flexibility, integration other tools, simplicity objects returned function speed. As an illustration, we define complete workflow California red fir Abies magnifica . This provides by incorporating comprehensive tools structured three steps: (a) Pre‐modelling prepare input, example, sampling bias correction, pseudo‐absences background points, partitioning, reducing collinearity predictors. (b) Modelling allow fitting evaluating different approaches, including individual algorithms, tuned models, ensembles small ensemble models. (c) Post‐modelling include related models' predictions, interpolation overprediction correction. Because comprises large part process, from outlier detection users can delineate partial or workflows based on combination meet

Язык: Английский

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Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 98(1), С. 19 - 33

Опубликована: Авг. 21, 2022

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses fail deliver a representative overview due inherent biases. Bats are species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that thought be particularly sensitive the effects because their high surface-to-volume ratios low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed literature bat provide an current state knowledge, identify gaps biases highlight future needs. found studies geographically biased towards Europe, North America Australia, temperate Mediterranean biomes, thus missing substantial proportion diversity thermal responses. Less than half published concrete evidence for change. For over third studied species, response only based predictive distribution models. Consequently, most frequently reported involve range shifts (57% species) changes in patterns (26%). showed variety responses, including both positive (e.g. expansion population increase) negative (range contraction decrease), although extreme events were always or neutral. Spatial varied outcome across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring expansions contractions, while demographic strongly outcomes, among Pteropodidae Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can applied many but do not mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological genetic There was paucity experimental (26%), small 396 covered examined using long-term and/or (11%), even though they more informative about emphasise need empirical unravel multifaceted nature bats' standardised study designs will enable synthesis meta-analysis literature. Finally, we stress importance overcoming geographic disparities through strengthening capacity Global South comprehensive view terrestrial biodiversity

Язык: Английский

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Species distribution modelling supports the study of past, present and future biogeographies

Journal of Biogeography, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(9), С. 1533 - 1545

Опубликована: Апрель 10, 2023

Abstract Species distribution modelling (SDM), also called environmental or ecological niche modelling, has developed over the last 30 years as a widely used tool in core areas of biogeography including historical biogeography, studies diversity patterns, species ranges, ecoregional classification, conservation assessment and projecting future global change impacts. In 50th anniversary year Journal Biogeography , I reflect on developments illustrate how embedded methodology become all speculate directions field. Challenges to raised this journal 2006 have been addressed significant degree. Those challenges are clarification concept; improved sample design for occurrence data; model parameterization; predictor selection; assessing performance transferability; integrating correlative process models distributions. SDM is used, often conjunction with other evidence, understand past range dynamics, identify patterns drivers biological diversity, limits, define delineate ecoregions, estimate distributions biodiversity elements relation protected status prioritize action, forecast shifts response climate scenarios. Areas progress that may more accessible useful tools include genetically informed community models.

Язык: Английский

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Space‐for‐time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 98(6), С. 2243 - 2270

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2023

ABSTRACT In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long‐term biological data use the past anticipate future, spatial climate–biotic relationships are often used as proxy for biotic responses change over time. These ‘space‐for‐time substitutions’ (SFTS) become near ubiquitous in global biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods isolation. We review climate‐focussed SFTS four ecology evolution, each focussed on type variable – population phenotypes, genotypes, species' distributions, ecological communities. then examine similarities differences between terms methods, limitations opportunities. While wide range applications, two main approaches applied across subfields: situ gradient transplant experiments. find that share common relating ( i ) causality identified ii transferability these relationships, i.e. whether observed space equivalent those occurring Moreover, despite widespread application research, key assumptions remain untested. highlight opportunities enhance robustness by addressing limitations, particular emphasis where could be shared subfields.

Язык: Английский

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Different facets of the same niche: Integrating citizen science and scientific survey data to predict biological invasion risk under multiple global change drivers

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 29(19), С. 5509 - 5523

Опубликована: Авг. 7, 2023

Abstract Citizen science initiatives have been increasingly used by researchers as a source of occurrence data to model the distribution alien species. Since citizen presence‐only suffer from some fundamental issues, efforts made combine these with those provided scientifically structured surveys. Surprisingly, only few studies proposing integration evaluated contribution this process effective sampling species' environmental niches and, consequently, its effect on predictions new time intervals. We relied niche overlap analyses, machine learning classification algorithms and ecological models compare ability scientific surveys, along their integration, in capturing realized 13 invasive species Italy. Moreover, we assessed differences current future invasion risk predicted each set under multiple global change scenarios. showed that surveys captured similar though highlighting exclusive portions associated clearly identifiable conditions. In terrestrial species, granted highest gain space pooled niches, determining an increased biological risk. A aquatic modelled at regional scale reported net loss compared survey suggesting may also lead contraction niches. For lower These findings indicate represent valuable predicting spread especially within national‐scale programmes. At same time, collected poorly known scientists, or strictly local contexts, strongly affect quantification taxa prediction

Язык: Английский

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Vegetation structure derived from airborne laser scanning to assess species distribution and habitat suitability: The way forward

Diversity and Distributions, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 29(1), С. 39 - 50

Опубликована: Окт. 30, 2022

Abstract Ecosystem structure, especially vertical vegetation is one of the six essential biodiversity variable classes and an important aspect habitat heterogeneity, affecting species distributions diversity by providing shelter, foraging, nesting sites. Point clouds from airborne laser scanning (ALS) can be used to derive such detailed information on structure. However, public agencies usually only provide digital elevation models, which do not Calculating structure variables ALS point requires extensive data processing remote sensing skills that most ecologists have. extremely valuable for many analyses use distribution. We here propose 10 should easily accessible researchers stakeholders through national portals. In addition, we argue a consistent selection their systematic testing, would allow continuous improvement list keep it up‐to‐date with latest evidence. This initiative particularly needed advance ecological research open datasets but also guide potential users in face increasing availability global products.

Язык: Английский

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Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 25(3), С. 673 - 685

Опубликована: Фев. 24, 2022

Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts, leading fluctuations in species richness (SR) worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, part because comprehensive species-level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here, we use morphometric and ecological traits for 8268 bird estimate impact climate avian FD. We show that future assemblages likely undergo substantial shifts structure, with a magnitude greater than from SR alone, direction varying according location trophic guild. For example, our models predict FD insect predators will increase higher latitudes concurrent losses mid-latitudes, whereas seed dispersing birds fluctuate across tropics. Our findings highlight potential continental-scale implications ecosystem function resilience.

Язык: Английский

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Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(22), С. 6586 - 6601

Опубликована: Авг. 5, 2022

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution are primarily used understand scope potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential where why can give implausible results identify which processes contribute uncertainty. Here, we use series simulated distributions, an ensemble 252 models, three regional ocean projections, isolate influences uncertainty from earth system model spread ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine with different functional traits preferences more broadly address resource manager fishery stakeholder needs, provide true state evaluate projections. We present our relative degree environmental extrapolation historical conditions, helps facilitate interpretation by modelers working diverse systems. found associated models exceed generated diverging (up 70% total 2100), that this result was consistent across traits. Species increased through time related extrapolated into novel conditions moderated how well captured underlying dynamics driving distributions. predictive power remained relatively high first 30 years alignment period stakeholders make strategic decisions based on information. By understanding sources uncertainty, they change at forecast horizons, recommendations projecting under global change.

Язык: Английский

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Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: Climatic niche and grid resolution affect between‐version mismatches in Habitat Suitability Models predictions across Europe

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2022

The influence of climate on the distribution taxa has been extensively investigated in last two decades through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). In this context, Worldclim database represents an invaluable data source as it provides worldwide surfaces for both historical and future time horizons. Thousands HSMs-based papers have published taking advantage 1.4, first online version repository. 2017, 2.1 was released. Here, we evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing Europe, between HSMs fitted using from versions (between-version differences). To aim, simulated occurrence probability presence-absence across Europe four virtual species (VS) with differing climate-occurrence relationships. For each VS, upon uncorrelated bioclimatic variables derived three grid resolutions. factor combination, attaining sufficient discrimination performance independent test were projected under current conditions various scenarios, importance scores single computed. failed accurately retrieving relationships climate-tolerant VS one occurring a narrow combination climatic conditions. Under climate, noticeable between-version emerged most these VSs, whose suitability mainly depended diurnal or yearly variability temperature; differently, differences more clustered toward areas showing extreme values, like mountainous massifs southern regions, VSs responding to average temperature precipitation trends. chosen emission scenarios Global Climate did not evidently discrepancies, while resolution synergistically interacted VSs' niche characteristics determining extent such differences. Our findings could help re-evaluating previous biodiversity-related works relying geographical predictions Worldclim-based HSMs.

Язык: Английский

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