Unequal exposure to heatwaves in Los Angeles: Impact of uneven green spaces

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9(17)

Опубликована: Апрель 28, 2023

Cities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer temperatures. Urban environments exacerbate extreme heat, resulting in not only the urban heat island but also intracity variations exposure. Understanding these disparities is crucial to support equitable climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. We found persistent negative correlations between daytime land surface temperature (LST) median household income across Los Angeles metropolitan area based on Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment Space Station observations from 2018 2021. Lower evapotranspiration unequal distribution of vegetation cover a major factor leading higher LST low-income neighborhoods. Disparities worsen with regional mean temperature, $10,000 decrease ~0.2°C increase at 20°C up ~0.7°C 45°C. With more frequent intense waves projected future, measures, such as increasing albedo tree neighborhoods, necessary address disparities.

Язык: Английский

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Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 22, 2024

Abstract A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection attribution studies are rarely able conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions the primary drivers precipitation change over United States. GHG increase mean extreme from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while decadal-scale effect global decreases Local further offset increases in winter spring but enhance during summer fall. Our results conflicting literature historical trends can be explained by offsetting signals. At scale States, individual climate models reproduce observed cannot confidently determine whether a given agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

Язык: Английский

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Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 44(7), С. 2207 - 2229

Опубликована: Март 28, 2024

Abstract California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over region. We analysed (mid‐century end‐century) projections California's winter precipitation changes from latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), studied its respective model agreement in comparison to previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern more than two thirds each ensemble agree on conditions. However, southern both ensembles show highly uncertain changes, with almost equally divided or Projected end‐century range −30% +70% −20% +80% CMIP6. The CMIP6 mean are generally larger disagreement compared CMIP5. Distribution year‐to‐year indicates extremely wet dry years CMIP5, some suggesting that five wettest account much ~55% 20‐year rainfall, driest little ~5%. Dynamically, project weakened subsidence Baja stronger line In western tropical Pacific we find strengthening Hadley circulation not seen El Niño La Niña equatorial Pacific. More also an increase ENSO events a impact found These factors contribute

Язык: Английский

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Multiplex networks in resilience modeling of critical infrastructure systems: A systematic review

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 250, С. 110300 - 110300

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2024

Язык: Английский

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National‐Scale Flood Hazard Data Unfit for Urban Risk Management

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(7)

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

Abstract Extreme flooding events are becoming more frequent and costly, impacts have been concentrated in cities where exposure vulnerability both heightened. To manage risks, governments, the private sector, households now rely on flood hazard data from national‐scale models that lack accuracy urban areas due to unresolved drainage processes infrastructure. Here we assess uncertainties of First Street Foundation (FSF) data, available across U.S., using a new model (PRIMo‐Drain) resolves infrastructure fine resolution dynamics. Using case Los Angeles, California, find FSF PRIMo‐Drain estimates population property value exposed 1%‐ 5%‐annual‐chance hazards diverge at finer scales governance, for example, by 4‐ 18‐fold municipal scale. often predict opposite patterns inequality social groups (e.g., Black, White, Disadvantaged). Further, county scale, compute Model Agreement Index only 24%—a ∼1 4 chance agreeing upon which properties risk. Collectively, these differences point limited capacity confidently municipalities, groups, individual risk within areas. These results caution present may misinform strategies lead maladaptation, underscoring importance refined validated models.

Язык: Английский

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Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(10)

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2023

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing inundation Sacramento Valley. study recreates using Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding processes events informs practical efforts anticipate prepare for such future, also provides rich context evaluate model skill representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement 14 km down 3.5 km, six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 12Z, are assessed their ability recreate flood. Planetary synoptic scale circulations integrated vapor transport weakly influenced over California. Topography mesoscale circulations, as Sierra barrier jet, better represented finer resolutions resulting estimates storm total precipitation duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series causal analysis frameworks used examine sensitivities state‐wide above major reservoirs. These show plays more prominent role shaping reservoir inflows, namely magnitude shape, than time, 2‐to‐4 days prior onset.

Язык: Английский

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Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2024

Abstract The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks stormwater pollution flooding in coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble global models to drive high spatial resolution model, we analyzed change impacts on runoff control measures for 23 cities across United States. Runoff model two future emissions scenarios ending 2055 were compared against historical scenario assess changes. All showed increases average annual runoff, with changes up 30% over next 30 years due greater frequency intensity storm events. substantial variation untreated increasing by as much 48%. Patterns within affect performance distributed treatment strategies such Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) meet municipal water quality improvement reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption adaptable design standards decision support tools readily accommodate projected precipitation are critical supporting more resilient designs measures.

Язык: Английский

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Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology

Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2024

Abstract. Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped inventories typically cover a small region relative system, here we develop proxy for landslide-inducing rainfall, A*, based on extremes modelled soil water its local climatology. We calibrate A* using four inventories, comprising over 11,000 individual unique events, and find common threshold can be applied estimate shallow triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). then use spatial distribution along with topography, calculate area (LPA) nine events past twenty years, test whether atmospheric metrics describing strength landfalling storms, such as integrated vapor transport, correlate magnitude hazardous rainfall. although largest LPA do occur during exceptional river (AR) rivers does not neatly area, even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal impacts. Other factors, antecedent moisture driven by frequency, mesoscale precipitation features within are instead more likely dictate patterns landslide-generating rainfall throughout state.

Язык: Английский

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Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: recipe for human disaster

npj natural hazards., Год журнала: 2025, Номер 2(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2025

In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, human decisions drove this disaster, stressing need for holistic 'healthcare' management approach prevent future catastrophes.

Язык: Английский

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Uncertainties in Simulating Flooding During Hurricane Harvey Using 2D Shallow Water Equations

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 61(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent first‐principles approach to simulate all types spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal their compound dynamics. High resolution (e.g., () m) needed in 2D SWE simulations capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser resolutions are used for large‐scale which introduce uncertainties results. It unclear how uncertainty associated with model compares precipitation data sets assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact other bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show mesh have more significant impacts on simulated streamflow inundation than choice downstream condition at watershed outlet. We point out viability confine coarsening by using variable (VRM) refines critical topographic features far fewer grid cells. Specifically, VRM, depths over refined region comparable use finest uniform mesh. This study contributes understanding challenges pathways applying improve realism large scales.

Язык: Английский

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