npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)
Published: March 1, 2025
Language: Английский
Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(17)
Published: April 28, 2023
Cities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer temperatures. Urban environments exacerbate extreme heat, resulting in not only the urban heat island but also intracity variations exposure. Understanding these disparities is crucial to support equitable climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. We found persistent negative correlations between daytime land surface temperature (LST) median household income across Los Angeles metropolitan area based on Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment Space Station observations from 2018 2021. Lower evapotranspiration unequal distribution of vegetation cover a major factor leading higher LST low-income neighborhoods. Disparities worsen with regional mean temperature, $10,000 decrease ~0.2°C increase at 20°C up ~0.7°C 45°C. With more frequent intense waves projected future, measures, such as increasing albedo tree neighborhoods, necessary address disparities.
Language: Английский
Citations
36
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)
Published: Feb. 22, 2024
Abstract A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection attribution studies are rarely able conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions the primary drivers precipitation change over United States. GHG increase mean extreme from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while decadal-scale effect global decreases Local further offset increases in winter spring but enhance during summer fall. Our results conflicting literature historical trends can be explained by offsetting signals. At scale States, individual climate models reproduce observed cannot confidently determine whether a given agent has increased or decreased rainfall.
Language: Английский
Citations
12
International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(7), P. 2207 - 2229
Published: March 28, 2024
Abstract California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over region. We analysed (mid‐century end‐century) projections California's winter precipitation changes from latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), studied its respective model agreement in comparison to previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern more than two thirds each ensemble agree on conditions. However, southern both ensembles show highly uncertain changes, with almost equally divided or Projected end‐century range −30% +70% −20% +80% CMIP6. The CMIP6 mean are generally larger disagreement compared CMIP5. Distribution year‐to‐year indicates extremely wet dry years CMIP5, some suggesting that five wettest account much ~55% 20‐year rainfall, driest little ~5%. Dynamically, project weakened subsidence Baja stronger line In western tropical Pacific we find strengthening Hadley circulation not seen El Niño La Niña equatorial Pacific. More also an increase ENSO events a impact found These factors contribute
Language: Английский
Citations
12
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 250, P. 110300 - 110300
Published: June 22, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
11
Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(7)
Published: July 1, 2024
Abstract Extreme flooding events are becoming more frequent and costly, impacts have been concentrated in cities where exposure vulnerability both heightened. To manage risks, governments, the private sector, households now rely on flood hazard data from national‐scale models that lack accuracy urban areas due to unresolved drainage processes infrastructure. Here we assess uncertainties of First Street Foundation (FSF) data, available across U.S., using a new model (PRIMo‐Drain) resolves infrastructure fine resolution dynamics. Using case Los Angeles, California, find FSF PRIMo‐Drain estimates population property value exposed 1%‐ 5%‐annual‐chance hazards diverge at finer scales governance, for example, by 4‐ 18‐fold municipal scale. often predict opposite patterns inequality social groups (e.g., Black, White, Disadvantaged). Further, county scale, compute Model Agreement Index only 24%—a ∼1 4 chance agreeing upon which properties risk. Collectively, these differences point limited capacity confidently municipalities, groups, individual risk within areas. These results caution present may misinform strategies lead maladaptation, underscoring importance refined validated models.
Language: Английский
Citations
9
npj natural hazards., Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 2(1)
Published: Jan. 16, 2025
In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, human decisions drove this disaster, stressing need for holistic 'healthcare' management approach prevent future catastrophes.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent first‐principles approach to simulate all types spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal their compound dynamics. High resolution (e.g., () m) needed in 2D SWE simulations capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser resolutions are used for large‐scale which introduce uncertainties results. It unclear how uncertainty associated with model compares precipitation data sets assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact other bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show mesh have more significant impacts on simulated streamflow inundation than choice downstream condition at watershed outlet. We point out viability confine coarsening by using variable (VRM) refines critical topographic features far fewer grid cells. Specifically, VRM, depths over refined region comparable use finest uniform mesh. This study contributes understanding challenges pathways applying improve realism large scales.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(4)
Published: April 1, 2025
Abstract Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience water security of forests in western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled hydrological effects multi‐decadal landscape‐scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process‐based model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from ecosystem (LANDIS‐II), we simulate resource impacts management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration pre‐colonial disturbance return interval central Sierra Nevada mountains. In fully restored regime that includes fire, thinning, insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total 8%–14% dry years. At sub‐watershed scales (10–100 km 2 ), dense can increase streamflow >20% thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% gains attributable rain snow interception loss. Thinner headwater peak flows, reservoir‐scale flows almost exclusively influenced climate. Uncertainty future precipitation causes high uncertainty yield, additional yield is about five times less sensitive annual uncertainty. This decoupling response makes especially valuable supply during Our study confidence benefits restoring historic frequencies mountains, our modeling framework widely applicable other forested mountain landscapes.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(10)
Published: Oct. 1, 2023
Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing inundation Sacramento Valley. study recreates using Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding processes events informs practical efforts anticipate prepare for such future, also provides rich context evaluate model skill representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement 14 km down 3.5 km, six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 12Z, are assessed their ability recreate flood. Planetary synoptic scale circulations integrated vapor transport weakly influenced over California. Topography mesoscale circulations, as Sierra barrier jet, better represented finer resolutions resulting estimates storm total precipitation duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series causal analysis frameworks used examine sensitivities state‐wide above major reservoirs. These show plays more prominent role shaping reservoir inflows, namely magnitude shape, than time, 2‐to‐4 days prior onset.
Language: Английский
Citations
19
Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)
Published: Feb. 19, 2024
Abstract The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks stormwater pollution flooding in coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble global models to drive high spatial resolution model, we analyzed change impacts on runoff control measures for 23 cities across United States. Runoff model two future emissions scenarios ending 2055 were compared against historical scenario assess changes. All showed increases average annual runoff, with changes up 30% over next 30 years due greater frequency intensity storm events. substantial variation untreated increasing by as much 48%. Patterns within affect performance distributed treatment strategies such Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) meet municipal water quality improvement reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption adaptable design standards decision support tools readily accommodate projected precipitation are critical supporting more resilient designs measures.
Language: Английский
Citations
8