Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 61(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Abstract Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience water security of forests in western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled hydrological effects multi‐decadal landscape‐scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process‐based model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from ecosystem (LANDIS‐II), we simulate resource impacts management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration pre‐colonial disturbance return interval central Sierra Nevada mountains. In fully restored regime that includes fire, thinning, insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total 8%–14% dry years. At sub‐watershed scales (10–100 km 2 ), dense can increase streamflow >20% thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% gains attributable rain snow interception loss. Thinner headwater peak flows, reservoir‐scale flows almost exclusively influenced climate. Uncertainty future precipitation causes high uncertainty yield, additional yield is about five times less sensitive annual uncertainty. This decoupling response makes especially valuable supply during Our study confidence benefits restoring historic frequencies mountains, our modeling framework widely applicable other forested mountain landscapes.

Язык: Английский

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Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Water Demand Scenarios Using SWAT-MODFLOW-WEAP

Hydrology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 9(10), С. 164 - 164

Опубликована: Сен. 22, 2022

In this article, we present the use of coupled land surface model and groundwater flow SWAT-MODFLOW with decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation Planning software) to predict future surface-water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin under conditions climate change. The modelling framework is applied Dee River catchment Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, improves overall water balance low-streamflow compared stand-alone SWAT model. calibrated employed high-resolution data from UKCP18 project scenario RCP85 2020 2040. Then, supply results are fed into as input for reach downstream region basin. This system utilized create various public region—maximum licensed withdraw, 50% authorized abstractions, monthly time series 1% increases use, maximum withdraw per year based on historical records repeated every use—to estimate unmet demands streamflow requirement. approach can be used other basins manage demand.

Язык: Английский

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Mapping the research landscape of hydrogen production through electrocatalysis: A decade of progress and key trends

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 184, С. 113490 - 113490

Опубликована: Июль 12, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Contributions of Climate Change and ENSO Variability to Future Precipitation Extremes Over California

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(12)

Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2023

Abstract The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation through modulations regional heat moisture fluxes. California experiences particularly strong ENSO influences models project different to its precipitation. It remains unclear how diverse projections future extremes relate inter‐model differences for those changing signals. Here, we use “large ensemble” simulations with multiple climate along Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 investigate range changes over from ENSO‐related teleconnections. We found that amount increases are much larger during Niño relative La Niña years, mainly caused by in events phases. ENSO‐driven effect is even than overall change signal most events, implying uncertainties SST variability changes.

Язык: Английский

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Disaster effects of climate change and the associated scientific challenges

Chinese Science Bulletin (Chinese Version), Год журнала: 2023, Номер 69(2), С. 286 - 300

Опубликована: Июль 24, 2023

Язык: Английский

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California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(20)

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2024

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention recent years, but focus exclusively on leaves high years relatively underexplored. However, these large are hydrologically and economically important regions where is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” use anomalously snowpack California’s Sierra Nevada during 2023 year as case study. Snow monitoring sites across state had median 41 y return interval April 1 equivalent (SWE). Similarly, process-based model showed 54 statewide SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, deluges require both cool wet conditions. Relative last century, cool-season temperature precipitation deluge were moderately anomalous, while was highly anomalous relative climatology. Downscaled models Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California deluges—which define 20 event—are projected decline with change (58% by late century), although less so than (73% century). This pattern occurs western United States. Changes deluge, discrepancies between changes, could impact resources ecosystems. Understanding changes therefore appropriate adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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Flood ecology

BioScience, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 23, 2024

Abstract Societal perceptions of river floods are typically negative because the death and destruction they may cause, although scientists natural resource managers have long recognized critical ecological role floods. Like fire some other disturbances, flooding intersects many aspects ecology society. But unlike fire, receives relatively little attention in disturbance literature. We call for more focused recognition flood as a discipline to help science better inform societal through developing understanding roles flooding. contend that absence has constrained progress our how rivers function formal conceptualization could reveal positive Finally, we propose series questions believe should address.

Язык: Английский

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Climate change and California sustainability—Challenges and solutions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(32)

Опубликована: Июль 29, 2024

Large volumes of liquid water transiently existed on the surface Mars more than 3 billion years ago. Much this is hypothesized to have been sequestered in subsurface or lost space. We use rock physics models and Bayesian inversion ...

Язык: Английский

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Bracing for impact: how shifting precipitation extremes may influence physical climate risks in an uncertain future

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Июль 29, 2024

Abstract As extreme precipitation intensifies under climate change, traditional risk models based on the ‘100-year return period’ concept are becoming inadequate in assessing real-world risks. In response, this nationwide study explores shifting extremes non-stationary warming using high-resolution data across contiguous United States. Results reveal pronounced variability 100-year levels, with Coastal and Southern regions displaying highest baseline projections, future spikes anticipated Northeast, Ohio Valley, Northwest, California. Exposure analysis indicates approximately 53 million residents currently reside high-risk zones, potentially almost doubling tripling 2 °C 4 warming. Drought frequency also rises, over 37% of major farmland vulnerable to multi-year droughts, raising agricultural Record 2023 sea surface temperature anomalies suggest an impending El Niño event, demonstrating need account for natural variability. The insights gained aim inform decision-makers shaping adaptation strategies enhancing resilience communities response evolving extremes.

Язык: Английский

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Measuring and Attributing Sedimentary and Geomorphic Responses to Modern Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 10(10)

Опубликована: Сен. 23, 2022

Abstract Today, climate change is affecting virtually all terrestrial and nearshore settings. This commentary discusses the challenges of measuring climate‐driven physical landscape responses to modern global warming: short incomplete data records, land use seismicity masking climatic effects, biases in availability resolution, signal attenuation sedimentary systems. We identify opportunities learn from historical paleo data, select especially sensitive study sites, report null results better characterize extent nuances climate‐change effects. then discuss efforts improve attribution practices, which will lead predictive capabilities. encourage Earth‐science community prioritize scientific research on changes so that societies be prepared manage effects health safety, infrastructure, water–food–energy security, economics, ecosystems follow change.

Язык: Английский

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