Foundations and Future Directions for Causal Inference in Ecological Research

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 28(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Ecology often seeks to answer causal questions, and while ecologists have a rich history of experimental approaches, novel observational data streams the need apply insights across naturally occurring conditions pose opportunities challenges. Other fields developed inference approaches that can enhance expand our ability ecological questions using or data. However, lack comprehensive resources applying settings jargon from multiple disciplines creates barriers. We introduce for inference, discussing main frameworks counterfactual how differs other research aims key challenges; application in quasi‐experimental study designs; appropriate interpretation results given their assumptions biases; foundational papers; requirements trade‐offs between internal external validity posed by different designs. highlight these designs generally prioritise over generalisability. Finally, we identify considerations further integrate with synthesis science meta‐analysis spatiotemporal scales at which is possible. advocate ecology as field collectively define best practices inference.

Язык: Английский

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The Trade-offs between Wildfires and Prescribed Fires: A Case Study for 2016 Gatlinburg Wildfires

ACS ES&T Air, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 2(2), С. 236 - 248

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Prescribed burning is an effective land management tool that provides a range of benefits, including ecosystem restoration and wildfire risk reduction. However, prescribed fires, just like wildfires, introduce smoke degrades air quality. Furthermore, while fires help manage risk, they do not eliminate the possibility wildfires. It therefore important to also evaluate fire impacts from wildfires may occur after burn. In this study, we developed framework for understanding quality health related trade-offs between by simulating set counterfactual scenarios postprescribed burn We applied case Gatlinburg found emissions burns subsequent were slightly lower than those itself. This reduction resulted in daily average concentrations exposures PM2.5, O3, NO2. Even considering wildfire, reduced population-weighted maximum 8-h 1-h NO2 concentrations. Sevier County, Tennessee where occurred, these reductions reached 5.28 μg/m3, 0.18 ppb, 1.68 respectively. The person-days wildfire. Our results suggest although cannot can greatly reduce exposure downwind areas distant sites.

Язык: Английский

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Climate resilience through ecocultural stewardship

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(32)

Опубликована: Июль 29, 2024

The climate crisis has exacerbated many ecological and cultural problems including wildfire drought vulnerability, biodiversity declines, social justice equity. While there are concepts of resilience, the exemplar practices Indigenous stewardship recognized in having sustained peoples their countries for millennia past change events. California been at crossroads these issues, historic current contributions to addressing provide an excellent study ecocultural leadership by achieve resilience.

Язык: Английский

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Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under future climate change

EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 12, 2024

Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change. However, our understanding of impacts change on wildfire smoke health remains highly uncertain. Here we quantify mortality burden due fine particulate matter (PM2.5) We construct an ensemble statistical machine learning models that link PM2.5), empirically estimate PM2.5-mortality relationships using georeferenced data all recorded deaths from 2006 2019. project climate-driven increases PM2.5 could result 27,800 excess (95% confidence interval: 13,100 - 43,400) per year by 2050 a high warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) -- 76% increase relative estimated 2011-2020 averages. Cumulative exceed 700,000 between 2025-2055. When monetized, climate-induced annual damages $244 billion, comparable prior aggregate estimates other economic damage Our research suggests cost be among most important costly consequences US, urgent adaptation priority.

Язык: Английский

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Mortality Burden From Wildfire Smoke Under Climate Change

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2024

Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change.However, our understanding of impacts change on wildfire smoke health remains highly uncertain.We quantify past mortality burden due fine particulate matter (PM2.5).We construct an ensemble statistical machine learning models that link variation PM2.5, empirically estimate PM2.5-mortality relationships using georeferenced data all recorded deaths from 2006 2019.We project climate-driven increases PM2.5 could result 27,800 excess per year by 2050 a high warming scenario, 76% increase relative estimated 2011-2020 averages.Cumulative exceed 700,000 between 2025-2055.When monetized, climate-induced annual damages $244 billion mid-century, comparable sum other prior analyses.Our research suggests cost be among most important costly consequences US.

Язык: Английский

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Mortality Burden from Wildfire Smoke Under Climate Change

SSRN Electronic Journal, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Purchase - $5 NBER Subscribers Download Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI

Язык: Английский

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Wildfire Smoke, the Clean Air Act, and the Exceptional Events Rule: Implications and Policy Alternatives

Environmental Science & Technology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 4, 2025

In recent years, increasing wildfire activity in the western US and Canada has driven declining air quality some regions of US. Under EPA's Exceptional Events Rule, states are allowed to exempt daily pollution monitor readings impacted by smoke from determinations compliance with Clean Air Act standards. As a result, is leading growing divergence between actual regulatory quality. This paper reviews treatment under Rule. It presents quantitative evidence on effect rule fulfillment standards, an analysis degree which that currently leads violations out-of-state fires federal lands. We suggest modification Rule emissions would be excluded regulations only if adopt government-defined best fire management policies, we discuss legal practical feasibility such change.

Язык: Английский

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Integrating flora, fauna, and indigenous practices into spatial optimization for prescribed burning

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 379, С. 124833 - 124833

Опубликована: Март 9, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Synthetic control methods enable stronger causal inference using participatory science data in cities

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 21, 2025

As urban populations grow, conserving biodiversity within cities is increasingly vital and of global policy interest. However, environments pose unique challenges for understanding drivers change, as fragmented land ownership makes traditional monitoring randomized experiments logistically difficult. While participatory science platforms like iNaturalist offer a promising data source by providing extensive from areas, inferring causality remains challenging due to confounding factors in observational data. To leverage these advances, we framework that combines records with synthetic control methods, quasi-experimental approach. We demonstrate this approach case study assessing the impact Hurricane Ida (2021) on bee Philadelphia, USA. The estimated 9.4% decline abundance two years post-event. In contrast, three conventional ecological analyses—an interrupted time series regression, before-after comparison, (BACI) design—failed detect decline, naively detecting an increase unaccounted temporal trends. Synthetic methods powerful tool estimating citywide responses climate events interventions, enhancing utility ecology.

Язык: Английский

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Environmental gradients and carabid beetle diversity: Insights from wildfire and intensive site preparation in a Central European forest

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2025

Abstract Modern interventions, especially afforestation with Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris (Pinales: Pinaceae), L.), have accelerated habitat degradation in sandy lowland regions, reducing biodiversity and hindering the continuous succession of beetle populations. We conducted research from 2013 to 2021 Moravská Sahara–Bzenec district, South Moravia, following a 2012 wildfire. This study investigated whether wildfire intensive site preparation—specifically, disc trenching for replanting—could support long‐term restoration persistence psammophilous Beetle assemblages (Coleoptera: Carabidae) were compared across six vegetation stages: (i) uprooted stand, afforested; (ii) left decay; (iii) semi‐decayed mid‐aged stand; (iv) affected mature (v) unaffected (vi) stand. recorded 25,468 ground‐dwelling beetles 113 species. The findings suggest that shapes by creating diverse habitats various Habitat changes associated fire severity, successional stage preparation intensity, resulting distinct species clusters. These results indicate wildfires can be valuable conservation tool enhancing diversity early‐successional assemblages. In open areas subjected reforestation, gradually declined no replacement, reflecting homogeneous structure. To promote continuity, we recommend implementing low‐intensity repeat fires near stands. Consequently, increased forest canopy closure should not regarded solely as regeneration but potential threat richness these habitats.

Язык: Английский

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