Severity of a megafire reduced by interactions of wildland fire suppression operations and previous burns DOI Creative Commons
Lucas B. Harris, Calvin A. Farris,

Dani Niziolek

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(11), P. 114070 - 114070

Published: Oct. 8, 2024

Abstract Burned area and proportion of high severity fire have been increasing in the western USA, reducing wildfire with fuel treatments or other means is key for maintaining fire-prone dry forests avoiding fire-catalyzed forest loss. Despite unprecedented scope firefighting operations recent years, their contribution to patterns rarely quantified. Here we investigate how wildland suppression past interacted affect northern third 374 000 ha Dixie Fire, largest single California history. We developed a map intensity type statistical model Composite Burn Index (CBI) including weather, fuels, terrain variables during quantify importance prior fires on severity. Wildfire was estimated without previous then compared modeled under observed conditions. Previous low moderate-severity decreased CBI by 38% 19% respectively. Heavy offensive firing footprint lowered even more alone. Medium defensive reduced but did not eliminate moderating effects fires. This analysis demonstrates important interactions between burns that drive vegetation dynamics post-fire landscapes. Given need reduce maintain resilience, particularly warming climate, increased attention using known megafires are likely increase resilience improve ecological outcomes.

Language: Английский

Foundations and Future Directions for Causal Inference in Ecological Research DOI
Katherine Siegel, Laura E. Dee

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 28(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Ecology often seeks to answer causal questions, and while ecologists have a rich history of experimental approaches, novel observational data streams the need apply insights across naturally occurring conditions pose opportunities challenges. Other fields developed inference approaches that can enhance expand our ability ecological questions using or data. However, lack comprehensive resources applying settings jargon from multiple disciplines creates barriers. We introduce for inference, discussing main frameworks counterfactual how differs other research aims key challenges; application in quasi‐experimental study designs; appropriate interpretation results given their assumptions biases; foundational papers; requirements trade‐offs between internal external validity posed by different designs. highlight these designs generally prioritise over generalisability. Finally, we identify considerations further integrate with synthesis science meta‐analysis spatiotemporal scales at which is possible. advocate ecology as field collectively define best practices inference.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
The Trade-offs between Wildfires and Prescribed Fires: A Case Study for 2016 Gatlinburg Wildfires DOI Creative Commons
Zongrun Li, A. Vaidyanathan, Kamal Jyoti Maji

et al.

ACS ES&T Air, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 236 - 248

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Prescribed burning is an effective land management tool that provides a range of benefits, including ecosystem restoration and wildfire risk reduction. However, prescribed fires, just like wildfires, introduce smoke degrades air quality. Furthermore, while fires help manage risk, they do not eliminate the possibility wildfires. It therefore important to also evaluate fire impacts from wildfires may occur after burn. In this study, we developed framework for understanding quality health related trade-offs between by simulating set counterfactual scenarios postprescribed burn We applied case Gatlinburg found emissions burns subsequent were slightly lower than those itself. This reduction resulted in daily average concentrations exposures PM2.5, O3, NO2. Even considering wildfire, reduced population-weighted maximum 8-h 1-h NO2 concentrations. Sevier County, Tennessee where occurred, these reductions reached 5.28 μg/m3, 0.18 ppb, 1.68 respectively. The person-days wildfire. Our results suggest although cannot can greatly reduce exposure downwind areas distant sites.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Climate resilience through ecocultural stewardship DOI Creative Commons
Don L. Hankins

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(32)

Published: July 29, 2024

The climate crisis has exacerbated many ecological and cultural problems including wildfire drought vulnerability, biodiversity declines, social justice equity. While there are concepts of resilience, the exemplar practices Indigenous stewardship recognized in having sustained peoples their countries for millennia past change events. California been at crossroads these issues, historic current contributions to addressing provide an excellent study ecocultural leadership by achieve resilience.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under future climate change DOI Creative Commons
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould

et al.

EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 12, 2024

Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change. However, our understanding of impacts change on wildfire smoke health remains highly uncertain. Here we quantify mortality burden due fine particulate matter (PM2.5) We construct an ensemble statistical machine learning models that link PM2.5), empirically estimate PM2.5-mortality relationships using georeferenced data all recorded deaths from 2006 2019. project climate-driven increases PM2.5 could result 27,800 excess (95% confidence interval: 13,100 - 43,400) per year by 2050 a high warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) -- 76% increase relative estimated 2011-2020 averages. Cumulative exceed 700,000 between 2025-2055. When monetized, climate-induced annual damages $244 billion, comparable prior aggregate estimates other economic damage Our research suggests cost be among most important costly consequences US, urgent adaptation priority.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Mortality Burden From Wildfire Smoke Under Climate Change DOI Open Access
Minghao Qiu,

Jessica Li,

Carlos Gould

et al.

Published: April 1, 2024

Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change.However, our understanding of impacts change on wildfire smoke health remains highly uncertain.We quantify past mortality burden due fine particulate matter (PM2.5).We construct an ensemble statistical machine learning models that link variation PM2.5, empirically estimate PM2.5-mortality relationships using georeferenced data all recorded deaths from 2006 2019.We project climate-driven increases PM2.5 could result 27,800 excess per year by 2050 a high warming scenario, 76% increase relative estimated 2011-2020 averages.Cumulative exceed 700,000 between 2025-2055.When monetized, climate-induced annual damages $244 billion mid-century, comparable sum other prior analyses.Our research suggests cost be among most important costly consequences US.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Mortality Burden from Wildfire Smoke Under Climate Change DOI
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould

et al.

SSRN Electronic Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Purchase - $5 NBER Subscribers Download Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Wildfire Smoke, the Clean Air Act, and the Exceptional Events Rule: Implications and Policy Alternatives DOI Creative Commons

Alan Krupnick,

Nathan Richardson, Matthew Wibbenmeyer

et al.

Environmental Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 4, 2025

In recent years, increasing wildfire activity in the western US and Canada has driven declining air quality some regions of US. Under EPA's Exceptional Events Rule, states are allowed to exempt daily pollution monitor readings impacted by smoke from determinations compliance with Clean Air Act standards. As a result, is leading growing divergence between actual regulatory quality. This paper reviews treatment under Rule. It presents quantitative evidence on effect rule fulfillment standards, an analysis degree which that currently leads violations out-of-state fires federal lands. We suggest modification Rule emissions would be excluded regulations only if adopt government-defined best fire management policies, we discuss legal practical feasibility such change.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Integrating flora, fauna, and indigenous practices into spatial optimization for prescribed burning DOI

Jie Xi,

Wei Fu, Luca Maria Francesco Fabris

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 379, P. 124833 - 124833

Published: March 9, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Synthetic control methods enable stronger causal inference using participatory science data in cities DOI Creative Commons
Asia Kaiser, Laura E. Dee, Julian Resasco

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 21, 2025

Abstract As urban populations grow, conserving biodiversity within cities is increasingly vital and of global policy interest. However, environments pose unique challenges for understanding drivers change, as fragmented land ownership makes traditional monitoring randomized experiments logistically difficult. While participatory science platforms like iNaturalist offer a promising data source by providing extensive from areas, inferring causality remains challenging due to confounding factors in observational data. To leverage these advances, we framework that combines records with synthetic control methods, quasi-experimental approach. We demonstrate this approach case study assessing the impact Hurricane Ida (2021) on bee Philadelphia, USA. The estimated 9.4% decline abundance two years post-event. In contrast, three conventional ecological analyses—an interrupted time series regression, before-after comparison, (BACI) design—failed detect decline, naively detecting an increase unaccounted temporal trends. Synthetic methods powerful tool estimating citywide responses climate events interventions, enhancing utility ecology.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Environmental gradients and carabid beetle diversity: Insights from wildfire and intensive site preparation in a Central European forest DOI Creative Commons
Dominik Stočes, Ján Šipoš, Jakub Špoula

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 26, 2025

Abstract Modern interventions, especially afforestation with Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris (Pinales: Pinaceae), L.), have accelerated habitat degradation in sandy lowland regions, reducing biodiversity and hindering the continuous succession of beetle populations. We conducted research from 2013 to 2021 Moravská Sahara–Bzenec district, South Moravia, following a 2012 wildfire. This study investigated whether wildfire intensive site preparation—specifically, disc trenching for replanting—could support long‐term restoration persistence psammophilous Beetle assemblages (Coleoptera: Carabidae) were compared across six vegetation stages: (i) uprooted stand, afforested; (ii) left decay; (iii) semi‐decayed mid‐aged stand; (iv) affected mature (v) unaffected (vi) stand. recorded 25,468 ground‐dwelling beetles 113 species. The findings suggest that shapes by creating diverse habitats various Habitat changes associated fire severity, successional stage preparation intensity, resulting distinct species clusters. These results indicate wildfires can be valuable conservation tool enhancing diversity early‐successional assemblages. In open areas subjected reforestation, gradually declined no replacement, reflecting homogeneous structure. To promote continuity, we recommend implementing low‐intensity repeat fires near stands. Consequently, increased forest canopy closure should not regarded solely as regeneration but potential threat richness these habitats.

Language: Английский

Citations

0