Reviews of Geophysics,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
61(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2023
Abstract
Tipping
elements
are
components
of
the
Earth
system
which
may
respond
nonlinearly
to
anthropogenic
climate
change
by
transitioning
toward
substantially
different
long‐term
states
upon
passing
key
thresholds
or
“tipping
points.”
In
some
cases,
such
changes
could
produce
additional
greenhouse
gas
emissions
radiative
forcing
that
compound
global
warming.
Improved
understanding
tipping
is
important
for
predicting
future
risks
and
their
impacts.
Here
we
review
mechanisms,
predictions,
impacts,
knowledge
gaps
associated
with
10
notable
proposed
be
elements.
We
evaluate
approaching
critical
whether
shifts
manifest
rapidly
over
longer
timescales.
Some
have
a
higher
risk
crossing
points
under
middle‐of‐the‐road
pathways
will
possibly
affect
major
ecosystems,
patterns,
and/or
carbon
cycling
within
21st
century.
However,
literature
assessing
scenarios
indicates
strong
potential
reduce
impacts
many
through
mitigation.
The
studies
synthesized
in
our
suggest
most
do
not
possess
abrupt
years,
exhibit
behavior,
rather
responding
more
predictably
directly
magnitude
forcing.
Nevertheless,
uncertainties
remain
elements,
highlighting
an
acute
need
further
research
modeling
better
constrain
risks.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
118(16)
Опубликована: Апрель 12, 2021
Understanding
the
vulnerability
of
trees
to
drought-induced
mortality
is
key
predicting
fate
forests
in
a
future
climate
with
more
frequent
and
intense
droughts,
although
underlying
mechanisms
are
difficult
study
adult
trees.
Here,
we
explored
dynamic
changes
water
relations
limits
hydraulic
function
dying
adults
Norway
spruce
(Picea
abies
L.)
during
progression
record-breaking
2018
Central
European
drought.
In
on
trajectory
mortality,
observed
rapid,
nonlinear
declines
xylem
pressure
that
commenced
at
early
onset
cavitation
caused
complete
loss
conductance
within
very
short
time.
We
also
severe
depletions
nonstructural
carbohydrates,
though
carbon
starvation
could
be
ruled
out
as
cause
tree
death,
both
surviving
showed
these
metabolic
limitations.
Our
observations
provide
striking
field-based
evidence
for
fast
dehydration
collapse
spruce.
The
decline
suggests
considering
temporal
dynamics
critical
death.
system
time
demonstrates
can
rapidly
pushed
zone
safety
summary,
our
findings
point
toward
higher
risk
than
previously
assumed,
which
line
current
reports
unprecedented
levels
this
major
species.
Global Change Biology,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
27(23), С. 6005 - 6024
Опубликована: Сен. 3, 2021
Droughts
in
a
warming
climate
have
become
more
common
and
extreme,
making
understanding
forest
responses
to
water
stress
increasingly
pressing.
Analysis
of
trees
has
long
focused
on
potential
xylem
leaves,
which
influences
stomatal
closure
flow
through
the
soil-plant-atmosphere
continuum.
At
same
time,
changes
vegetation
content
(VWC)
are
linked
range
tree
responses,
including
fluxes
carbon,
mortality,
flammability,
more.
Unlike
potential,
requires
demanding
situ
measurements,
VWC
can
be
retrieved
from
remote
sensing
particularly
at
microwave
frequencies
using
radar
radiometry.
Here,
we
highlight
key
frontiers
significantly
increase
our
stress.
To
validate
observations
landscape
scale
better
relate
them
data
assimilation
model
parameters,
introduce
an
ecosystem-scale
analog
pressure-volume
curve,
non-linear
relationship
between
average
leaf
or
branch
commonly
used
plant
hydraulics.
The
sources
variability
these
curves
their
response
discussed.
We
further
show
what
extent
diel,
seasonal,
decadal
dynamics
reflect
variations
different
processes
relating
also
for
inferring
belowground
conditions-which
difficult
impossible
observe
directly.
Lastly,
discuss
how
dedicated
geostationary
spaceborne
observational
system
VWC,
when
combined
with
existing
datasets,
capture
diel
seasonal
advance
science
applications
global
vulnerability
future
droughts.
New Phytologist,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
231(1), С. 32 - 39
Опубликована: Март 17, 2021
With
climate
change,
heat
waves
are
becoming
increasingly
frequent,
intense
and
broader
in
spatial
extent.
However,
while
the
lethal
effects
of
on
humans
well
documented,
impacts
flora
less
understood,
perhaps
except
for
crops.
We
summarize
recent
findings
related
to
wave
including:
sublethal
at
leaf
plant
scales,
secondary
ecosystem
effects,
more
complex
such
as
increased
frequency
across
all
seasons,
interactions
with
other
disturbances.
propose
generalizable
practical
trials
quantify
critical
bounding
conditions
vulnerability
waves.
Collectively,
vulnerabilities
appear
be
underappreciated
understudied,
particularly
respect
understanding
driven
die-off
tipping
points.
The Science of The Total Environment,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
816, С. 151604 - 151604
Опубликована: Ноя. 12, 2021
Climate
change
can
lead
to
the
simultaneous
occurrence
of
extreme
droughts
and
heat
waves
increasing
frequency
compound
events
with
unknown
impacts
on
forests.
Here
we
use
two
independent
datasets,
a
compiled
database
tree
drought
mortality
ICP-Forest
level
I
plots,
study
hot
summers,
elevated
vapour
pressure
deficit
(VPD),
dry
years
forest
defoliation
across
Europe.
We
focused
background
rates,
studied
their
co-occurrence
summers
years.
In
total,
143
out
310
Europe,
i.e.
46%
cases,
corresponded
rare
characterized
by
Over
past
decades,
summer
temperature
increased
in
most
sites
severe
resulted
not
observed
before
1980s.
From
plots
identified
291
(1718
trees)
61
(128
where
mortality,
respectively,
were
caused
drought.
The
analyses
these
showed
that
34%
27%
cases
climate
events,
respectively.
Background
rates
Europe
period
1993-2013
presented
higher
values
regions
VPD
more
steeply
rose,
increased.
steady
increase
temperatures
Southern
Eastern
may
favor
conditions.
Giving
both,
local
intense
are
linked
such
expect
an
European
over
next
decades.
Science,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
377(6610), С. 1099 - 1103
Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2022
Earth's
forests
harbor
extensive
biodiversity
and
are
currently
a
major
carbon
sink.
Forest
conservation
restoration
can
help
mitigate
climate
change;
however,
change
could
fundamentally
imperil
in
many
regions
undermine
their
ability
to
provide
such
mitigation.
The
extent
of
risks
facing
has
not
been
synthesized
globally
nor
have
different
approaches
quantifying
forest
systematically
compared.
We
combine
outputs
from
multiple
mechanistic
empirical
modeling
carbon,
biodiversity,
disturbance
conduct
synthetic
risk
analysis
for
the
21st
century.
Despite
large
uncertainty
most
we
find
that
some
consistently
at
higher
risk,
including
southern
boreal
those
western
North
America
parts
Amazon.
New Phytologist,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
236(6), С. 2019 - 2036
Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2022
Hydraulic
failure
resulting
from
drought-induced
embolism
in
the
xylem
of
plants
is
a
key
determinant
reduced
productivity
and
mortality.
Methods
to
assess
this
vulnerability
are
difficult
achieve
at
scale,
leading
alternative
metrics
correlations
with
more
easily
measured
traits.
These
efforts
have
led
longstanding
pervasive
assumed
mechanistic
link
between
vessel
diameter
angiosperms.
However,
there
least
two
problems
assumption
that
requires
critical
re-evaluation:
(1)
our
current
understanding
does
not
provide
explanation
why
increased
width
should
lead
greater
vulnerability,
(2)
most
recent
advancements
nanoscale
processes
suggest
direct
driver.
Here,
we
review
data
physiological
comparative
wood
anatomy
studies,
highlighting
potential
anatomical
physicochemical
drivers
formation
spread.
We
then
put
forward
knowledge
gaps,
emphasising
what
known,
unknown
speculation.
A
meaningful
evaluation
diameter-vulnerability
will
require
better
biophysical
level
determine
spread,
which
turn
accurate
predictions
how
water
transport
affected
by
drought.
Ecology Letters,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
25(6), С. 1510 - 1520
Опубликована: Май 11, 2022
Abstract
Forests
are
currently
a
substantial
carbon
sink
globally.
Many
climate
change
mitigation
strategies
leverage
forest
preservation
and
expansion,
but
rely
on
forests
storing
for
decades
to
centuries.
Yet
climate‐driven
disturbances
pose
critical
risks
the
long‐term
stability
of
carbon.
We
quantify
drivers
that
influence
wildfire
stress‐driven
tree
mortality,
including
separate
insect‐driven
contiguous
United
States
current
(1984–2018)
project
these
future
disturbance
over
21st
century.
find
widespread
projected
increase
across
different
emissions
scenarios
by
factor
>4
fire
>1.3
climate‐stress
mortality.
These
highlight
pervasive
climate‐sensitive
impacts
US
raise
questions
about
risk
management
approach
taken
offset
policies.
Our
results
provide
US‐wide
maps
key
improving
cycle
modeling,
conservation
policy.