Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements DOI Creative Commons
Seaver Wang, Adrianna Foster, Elizabeth A. Lenz

et al.

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: Feb. 16, 2023

Abstract Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long‐term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions radiative forcing that compound global warming. Improved understanding tipping is important for predicting future risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable proposed be elements. We evaluate approaching critical whether shifts manifest rapidly over longer timescales. Some have a higher risk crossing points under middle‐of‐the‐road pathways will possibly affect major ecosystems, patterns, and/or carbon cycling within 21st century. However, literature assessing scenarios indicates strong potential reduce impacts many through mitigation. The studies synthesized in our suggest most do not possess abrupt years, exhibit behavior, rather responding more predictably directly magnitude forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain elements, highlighting an acute need further research modeling better constrain risks.

Language: Английский

Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress DOI
D.E. Bauman, Claire Fortunel, Guillaume Delhaye

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 608(7923), P. 528 - 533

Published: May 18, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

158
Rapid hydraulic collapse as cause of drought-induced mortality in conifers DOI
Matthias Arend, Roman M. Link,

Rachel Patthey

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(16)

Published: April 12, 2021

Understanding the vulnerability of trees to drought-induced mortality is key predicting fate forests in a future climate with more frequent and intense droughts, although underlying mechanisms are difficult study adult trees. Here, we explored dynamic changes water relations limits hydraulic function dying adults Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) during progression record-breaking 2018 Central European drought. In on trajectory mortality, observed rapid, nonlinear declines xylem pressure that commenced at early onset cavitation caused complete loss conductance within very short time. We also severe depletions nonstructural carbohydrates, though carbon starvation could be ruled out as cause tree death, both surviving showed these metabolic limitations. Our observations provide striking field-based evidence for fast dehydration collapse spruce. The decline suggests considering temporal dynamics critical death. system time demonstrates can rapidly pushed zone safety summary, our findings point toward higher risk than previously assumed, which line current reports unprecedented levels this major species.

Language: Английский

Citations

145
Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content DOI Creative Commons
Alexandra G. Konings, Sassan Saatchi, Christian Frankenberg

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 27(23), P. 6005 - 6024

Published: Sept. 3, 2021

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of trees has long focused on potential xylem leaves, which influences stomatal closure flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At same time, changes vegetation content (VWC) are linked range tree responses, including fluxes carbon, mortality, flammability, more. Unlike potential, requires demanding situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing particularly at microwave frequencies using radar radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers significantly increase our stress. To validate observations landscape scale better relate them data assimilation model parameters, introduce an ecosystem-scale analog pressure-volume curve, non-linear relationship between average leaf or branch commonly used plant hydraulics. The sources variability these curves their response discussed. We further show what extent diel, seasonal, decadal dynamics reflect variations different processes relating also for inferring belowground conditions-which difficult impossible observe directly. Lastly, discuss how dedicated geostationary spaceborne observational system VWC, when combined with existing datasets, capture diel seasonal advance science applications global vulnerability future droughts.

Language: Английский

Citations

145
Underappreciated plant vulnerabilities to heat waves DOI Creative Commons
David D. Breshears, Joseph B. Fontaine, Katinka X. Ruthrof

et al.

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 231(1), P. 32 - 39

Published: March 17, 2021

With climate change, heat waves are becoming increasingly frequent, intense and broader in spatial extent. However, while the lethal effects of on humans well documented, impacts flora less understood, perhaps except for crops. We summarize recent findings related to wave including: sublethal at leaf plant scales, secondary ecosystem effects, more complex such as increased frequency across all seasons, interactions with other disturbances. propose generalizable practical trials quantify critical bounding conditions vulnerability waves. Collectively, vulnerabilities appear be underappreciated understudied, particularly respect understanding driven die-off tipping points.

Language: Английский

Citations

144
Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests DOI Creative Commons
Antonio Gazol, J. Julio Camarero

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 816, P. 151604 - 151604

Published: Nov. 12, 2021

Climate change can lead to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heat waves increasing frequency compound events with unknown impacts on forests. Here we use two independent datasets, a compiled database tree drought mortality ICP-Forest level I plots, study hot summers, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), dry years forest defoliation across Europe. We focused background rates, studied their co-occurrence summers years. In total, 143 out 310 Europe, i.e. 46% cases, corresponded rare characterized by Over past decades, summer temperature increased in most sites severe resulted not observed before 1980s. From plots identified 291 (1718 trees) 61 (128 where mortality, respectively, were caused drought. The analyses these showed that 34% 27% cases climate events, respectively. Background rates Europe period 1993-2013 presented higher values regions VPD more steeply rose, increased. steady increase temperatures Southern Eastern may favor conditions. Giving both, local intense are linked such expect an European over next decades.

Language: Английский

Citations

143
Forest microbiome and global change DOI
Petr Baldrián, Rubén López‐Mondéjar, Petr Kohout

et al.

Nature Reviews Microbiology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 21(8), P. 487 - 501

Published: March 20, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

136
A climate risk analysis of Earth’s forests in the 21st century DOI
William R. L. Anderegg, Chao Wu, Nezha Acil

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(6610), P. 1099 - 1103

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, change could fundamentally imperil in many regions undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of risks facing has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches quantifying forest systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic empirical modeling carbon, biodiversity, disturbance conduct synthetic risk analysis for the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty most we find that some consistently at higher risk, including southern boreal those western North America parts Amazon.

Language: Английский

Citations

134
Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts DOI
Meng Zhao,

A Geruo,

Yanlan Liu

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(11), P. 1024 - 1030

Published: Oct. 27, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

130
Functional xylem characteristics associated with drought‐induced embolism in angiosperms DOI Open Access
Frederic Lens, Sean M. Gleason, Giovanni Bortolami

et al.

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 236(6), P. 2019 - 2036

Published: Aug. 30, 2022

Hydraulic failure resulting from drought-induced embolism in the xylem of plants is a key determinant reduced productivity and mortality. Methods to assess this vulnerability are difficult achieve at scale, leading alternative metrics correlations with more easily measured traits. These efforts have led longstanding pervasive assumed mechanistic link between vessel diameter angiosperms. However, there least two problems assumption that requires critical re-evaluation: (1) our current understanding does not provide explanation why increased width should lead greater vulnerability, (2) most recent advancements nanoscale processes suggest direct driver. Here, we review data physiological comparative wood anatomy studies, highlighting potential anatomical physicochemical drivers formation spread. We then put forward knowledge gaps, emphasising what known, unknown speculation. A meaningful evaluation diameter-vulnerability will require better biophysical level determine spread, which turn accurate predictions how water transport affected by drought.

Language: Английский

Citations

112
Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests DOI
William R. L. Anderegg, O. Chegwidden, Grayson Badgley

et al.

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(6), P. 1510 - 1520

Published: May 11, 2022

Abstract Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies leverage forest preservation and expansion, but rely on forests storing for decades to centuries. Yet climate‐driven disturbances pose critical risks the long‐term stability of carbon. We quantify drivers that influence wildfire stress‐driven tree mortality, including separate insect‐driven contiguous United States current (1984–2018) project these future disturbance over 21st century. find widespread projected increase across different emissions scenarios by factor >4 fire >1.3 climate‐stress mortality. These highlight pervasive climate‐sensitive impacts US raise questions about risk management approach taken offset policies. Our results provide US‐wide maps key improving cycle modeling, conservation policy.

Language: Английский

Citations

100