On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

arXiv (Cornell University), Год журнала: 2021, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2021

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and adaptable to wide range downstream tasks. We call these foundation underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides thorough account opportunities risks models, ranging from capabilities language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) applications law, healthcare, education) societal impact inequity, misuse, economic environmental impact, legal ethical considerations). Though based standard deep learning transfer learning, results in new emergent capabilities,and effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization powerful leverage but demands caution, as defects inherited by all adapted downstream. Despite impending widespread deployment we currently lack clear understanding how they work, when fail, what even capable due properties. To tackle questions, believe much critical research will require interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

Язык: Английский

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Getting the message right on nature‐based solutions to climate change

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 27(8), С. 1518 - 1546

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2021

Abstract Nature‐based solutions (NbS)—solutions to societal challenges that involve working with nature—have recently gained popularity as an integrated approach can address climate change and biodiversity loss, while supporting sustainable development. Although well‐designed NbS deliver multiple benefits for people nature, much of the recent limelight has been on tree planting carbon sequestration. There are serious concerns this is distracting from need rapidly phase out use fossil fuels protect existing intact ecosystems. also expansion forestry framed a mitigation solution coming at cost rich biodiverse native ecosystems local resource rights. Here, we discuss promise pitfalls framing its current political traction, present recommendations how get message right. We urge policymakers, practitioners researchers consider synergies trade‐offs associated follow four guiding principles enable provide society: (1) not substitute rapid fuels; (2) wide range land in sea, just forests; (3) implemented full engagement consent Indigenous Peoples communities way respects their cultural ecological rights; (4) should be explicitly designed measurable biodiversity. Only by following these guidelines will design robust resilient urgent sustaining nature together, now into future.

Язык: Английский

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Ten golden rules for reforestation to optimize carbon sequestration, biodiversity recovery and livelihood benefits

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 27(7), С. 1328 - 1348

Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2021

Abstract Urgent solutions to global climate change are needed. Ambitious tree‐planting initiatives, many already underway, aim sequester enormous quantities of carbon partly compensate for anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, which a major cause rising temperatures. However, tree planting that is poorly planned and executed could actually increase emissions have long‐term, deleterious impacts on biodiversity, landscapes livelihoods. Here, we highlight the main environmental risks large‐scale propose 10 golden rules, based some most recent ecological research, implement forest ecosystem restoration maximizes rates both sequestration biodiversity recovery while improving These as follows: (1) Protect existing first; (2) Work together (involving all stakeholders); (3) Aim maximize meet multiple goals; (4) Select appropriate areas restoration; (5) Use natural regeneration wherever possible; (6) species biodiversity; (7) resilient plant material (with genetic variability provenance); (8) Plan ahead infrastructure, capacity seed supply; (9) Learn by doing (using an adaptive management approach); (10) Make it pay (ensuring economic sustainability project). We focus design long‐term strategies tackle crises support livelihood needs. emphasize role local communities sources indigenous knowledge, benefits they derive from successful reforestation restores functioning delivers diverse range products services. While there no simple universal recipe restoration, crucial build upon currently growing public private interest in this topic, ensure interventions provide effective, sinks people.

Язык: Английский

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Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

Nature, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 585(7826), С. 545 - 550

Опубликована: Сен. 23, 2020

Язык: Английский

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The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 8(45)

Опубликована: Ноя. 9, 2022

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change dominant worldwide. Direct exploitation natural resources ranks second pollution third; climate invasive alien species have significantly less than top two drivers. The oceans, where dominate, different hierarchy from land fresh water. It also varies among types indicators. For example, is more community composition changes populations. Stopping global requires actions tackle all major their interactions, not some them isolation.

Язык: Английский

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Land‐based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 27(23), С. 6025 - 6058

Опубликована: Окт. 11, 2021

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public private sector policies. Building on previous studies, we refine update the potentials for 20 land-based >200 countries five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr-1 between 2020 2050, bottom end of this range representing IAM median upper estimate. The cost-effective estimate about 40% available technical potential line achieving a 1.5°C pathway 2050. Compared potentials, represent more realistic actionable target policy. approximately 50% from forests other ecosystems, 35% agriculture, 15% demand-side measures. varies sixfold across regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq ) top 15 account 60% global potential. Protection ecosystems present particularly high efficiency, provision co-benefits, relatively lower costs. suggests that governance, economic investment, socio-cultural conditions influence likelihood are realized. A substantial portion (80%) developing LDCs, where barriers greatest concern. Assisting overcome may result quantities near-term, low-cost while locally important adaptation development benefits. Opportunities among vary widely depending types available, their co-benefits risks, feasibility. Enhanced investments country-specific plans accommodate complexity urgently needed realize large improved land stewardship.

Язык: Английский

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Guidance for successful tree planting initiatives

Journal of Applied Ecology, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 57(12), С. 2349 - 2361

Опубликована: Июль 27, 2020

Abstract A growing number of initiatives at global, regional and national scales propose to plant millions, billions or even trillions trees as a simple solution resolve complex environmental problems. However, tree planting is much more complicated than it seems. We summarize the multifaceted decision‐making process needed offer guidelines increase success proposed ambitious efforts cover world‐wide. Given varied definitions motivations for planting, critical that stakeholders work together clearly define biophysical socioeconomic goals each project. Then series questions must be addressed about where how (e.g. vs. allowing natural forest regrowth) most effectively achieve these minimize unintended negative consequences, well how, when by whom will evaluated. Key successfully include: (a) first addressing underlying drivers deforestation; (b) integrating across from local global; (c) tailoring strategies stated project planning, adaptively managing evaluating over sufficiently long timeframe; (d) focusing on ecosystem whole, not just trees; (e) coordinating different land uses (f) involving all stages planning process. Synthesis applications . Tree along with other in appropriate locations contexts, can make valuable contribution ensuring ecological social well‐being our planet coming decades, but only if are considered one component solutions problems carefully planned, implemented monitored time‐scale stakeholder engagement broader consideration socio‐ecological complexities.

Язык: Английский

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Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 380(6642)

Опубликована: Апрель 20, 2023

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social economic inequalities, habitat loss, many which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, society develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C effectively conserving restoring functional ecosystems on 30 50% land, freshwater, ocean "scapes." We envision mosaic interconnected protected shared spaces, including intensively used strengthen self-sustaining the capacity people nature adapt mitigate change, nature's contributions people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, planetary health for livable future urgently requires bold implementation transformative policy interventions through institutions, governance, systems from local global levels.

Язык: Английский

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Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 31(8)

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2021

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure composition of forested landscapes. As part the review, we address common questions associated with climate realignment treatments run counter to a broad consensus in literature. These following: (1) Are effects exclusion overstated? If so, are unwarranted even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can prescribed burning solve problem? (4) Should management, including thinning, be concentrated wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) wildfires on their own do work fuel treatments? (6) primary objective reduction assist future firefighting response containment? (7) Do under extreme weather? (8) scale problem too great? ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees change wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or ecologically justified? Based our scientific evidence, range proactive actions justified necessary keep pace changing climatic declining heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based options use managed wildfire, burning, coupled mechanical as consistent land allocations conditions. Although some current models averse short-term risks uncertainties, long-term environmental, social, cultural consequences primarily grounded suppression well documented, highlighting an urgency invest intentional restoration regimes.

Язык: Английский

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Hidden destruction of older forests threatens Brazil’s Atlantic Forest and challenges restoration programs

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 7(4)

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2021

Understanding the dynamics of native forest loss and gain is critical for biodiversity conservation ecosystem services, especially in regions experiencing intense transformations. We quantified cover on an annual basis from 1990 to 2017 Brazil’s Atlantic Forest. Despite relative stability during this period (~28 Mha), ongoing older forests, mostly flatter terrains, have been hidden by increasing younger cover, marginal lands mechanized agriculture. Changes its spatial distribution increased isolation 36.4% landscapes. The clearance forests associated with recut 27% has resulted a progressive rejuvenation cover. highlight need include spatiotemporal into restoration programs better estimate their expected benefits unexpected problems.

Язык: Английский

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