Viruses,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(3), С. 479 - 479
Опубликована: Март 20, 2024
The
emergence
of
new
virus
variants,
including
the
Omicron
variant
(B.1.1.529)
SARS-CoV-2,
can
lead
to
reduced
vaccine
effectiveness
(VE)
and
need
for
vaccines
or
doses
if
extent
immune
evasion
is
severe.
Neutralizing
antibody
titers
have
been
shown
be
a
correlate
protection
SARS-CoV-2
other
pathogens,
could
used
quickly
estimate
variants.
However,
no
model
currently
exists
provide
precise
VE
estimates
against
severe
disease
using
robust
datasets
from
several
populations.
We
developed
predictive
models
COVID-19
symptomatic
hospitalization
across
54-fold
range
mean
neutralizing
titers.
For
two
mRNA
(mRNA-1273,
BNT162b2),
fit
without
data
predicted
that
infection
with
BA.1
increased
risk
2.8–4.4-fold
1.7–4.2-fold
compared
Delta
variant.
Out-of-sample
validation
showed
predictions
were
accurate;
all
within
10%
observed
fell
prediction
intervals.
Predictive
rapid
estimates,
which
inform
booster
timing,
design,
selection
New England Journal of Medicine,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
386(6), С. 509 - 520
Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2021
New
treatments
are
needed
to
reduce
the
risk
of
progression
coronavirus
disease
2019
(Covid-19).
Molnupiravir
is
an
oral,
small-molecule
antiviral
prodrug
that
active
against
severe
acute
respiratory
syndrome
2
(SARS-CoV-2).
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
12(1)
Опубликована: Сен. 30, 2021
Abstract
Viral
reproduction
of
SARS-CoV-2
provides
opportunities
for
the
acquisition
advantageous
mutations,
altering
viral
transmissibility,
disease
severity,
and/or
allowing
escape
from
natural
or
vaccine-derived
immunity.
We
use
three
mathematical
models:
a
parsimonious
deterministic
model
with
homogeneous
mixing;
an
age-structured
model;
and
stochastic
importation
to
investigate
effect
potential
variants
concern
(VOCs).
Calibrating
situation
in
England
May
2021,
we
find
epidemiological
trajectories
putative
VOCs
are
wide-ranging
dependent
on
their
immune
capability,
introduction
timing
postulated
VOC-targeted
vaccine.
demonstrate
that
VOC
substantial
transmission
advantage
over
resident
variants,
properties,
can
generate
wave
infections
hospitalisations
comparable
winter
2020-2021
wave.
Moreover,
variant
is
less
transmissible,
but
shows
partial
immune-escape
could
provoke
infection
would
not
be
revealed
until
control
measures
further
relaxed.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Июнь 6, 2023
Abstract
Access
to
COVID-19
vaccines
on
the
global
scale
has
been
drastically
hindered
by
structural
socio-economic
disparities.
Here,
we
develop
a
data-driven,
age-stratified
epidemic
model
evaluate
effects
of
vaccine
inequities
in
twenty
lower
middle
and
low
income
countries
(LMIC)
selected
from
all
WHO
regions.
We
investigate
quantify
potential
higher
or
earlier
doses
availability.
In
doing
so,
focus
crucial
initial
months
distribution
administration,
exploring
counterfactual
scenarios
where
assume
same
per
capita
daily
vaccination
rate
reported
high
countries.
estimate
that
more
than
50%
deaths
(min-max
range:
[54−94%])
occurred
analyzed
could
have
averted.
further
consider
LMIC
had
similarly
early
access
as
Even
without
increasing
number
doses,
an
important
fraction
[6−50%])
absence
availability
high-income
countries,
suggests
additional
non-pharmaceutical
interventions
inducing
considerable
relative
decrease
transmissibility
[15−70%])
would
required
offset
lack
vaccines.
Overall,
our
results
negative
impacts
underscore
need
for
intensified
efforts
devoted
provide
faster
programs
lower-middle-income
BMJ Global Health,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
8(6), С. e011881 - e011881
Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2023
Although
significant
progress
has
been
made
in
achieving
goals
for
COVID-19
vaccine
access,
the
quest
equity
and
justice
remains
an
unfinished
agenda.
Vaccine
nationalism
prompted
calls
new
approaches
to
achieve
equitable
access
not
only
vaccines
but
also
vaccination.
This
includes
ensuring
country
community
participation
global
discussions
that
local
needs
strengthen
health
systems,
address
issues
related
social
determinants
of
health,
build
trust
leverage
acceptance
vaccines,
are
addressed.
Regional
technology
manufacturing
hubs
promising
challenges
must
be
integrated
with
efforts
ensure
demand.
The
current
situation
underlines
need
demand
system
strengthening
addressed
along
priorities
achieved.
Innovations
improve
accountability
existing
platforms
needed.
Sustained
political
will
investment
is
required
ongoing
production
non-pandemic
sustained
demand,
particularly
when
perceived
threat
disease
appears
waning.
Several
recommendations
govern
towards
including
codesigning
path
forward
low-income
middle-income
countries;
establishing
stronger
measures;
dedicated
groups
engage
countries
affordable
supply
predictable
balance;
addressing
through
leveraging
development
delivering
on
product
presentations
informed
by
needs.
Even
if
difficult,
we
converge
a
definition
well
advance
next
pandemic.
Stockpiling
and
control
A
triumph
that
has
emerged
from
the
catastrophe
of
severe
acute
respiratory
syndrome
coronavirus
2
pandemic
been
rapid
development
several
potent
vaccines.
However,
18
months
into
more
than
6
after
vaccine
approval,
wealthy
countries
remain
major
beneficiaries.
Wagner
et
al
.
model
consequences
stockpiling
in
affluent
on
disease
rates
lower-
middle-income
for
eruption
new
variants
could
jeopardize
early
success
For
can
readily
access
vaccines,
it
would
be
better
to
share
vaccines
equitably
lower
burdens
with
less
access,
reduce
cost
having
constantly
vigilant
case
imports,
minimize
virus
evolution.
—CA
The Lancet Regional Health - Europe,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
9, С. 100221 - 100221
Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2021
Since
2005,
the
world
has
faced
several
public
health
emergencies
of
international
concern
arising
from
infectious
disease
outbreaks.
Of
these,
COVID-19
pandemic
had
by
far
greatest
and
economic
consequences.
During
these
emergencies,
responses
taken
one
country
often
have
an
impact
on
other
countries.
The
implication
is
that
coordination
between
countries
likely
to
achieve
better
outcomes,
individually
collectively,
than
each
independently
pursuing
its
own
self-interest.
pandemic,
gaps
in
multilateral
cooperation
research
information
sharing,
vaccine
development
deployment,
travel
policies
hampered
speed
equity
global
recovery.
In
this
Health
Policy
article,
we
explore
how
collaboration
crucial
successful
linked
Responding
future
threats
will
require
creation
stronger
mechanisms
for
before
they
arise.
A
change
governance
institutions
a
logical
next
step,
with
focus
providing
equal
ownership
leadership
opportunities
all
member
Europe
can
be
example
advocate
governed
institutions.
