Predicting Vaccine Effectiveness for Hospitalization and Symptomatic Disease for Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Neutralizing Antibody Titers DOI Creative Commons
Billy J. Gardner, A. Marm Kilpatrick

Viruses, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(3), С. 479 - 479

Опубликована: Март 20, 2024

The emergence of new virus variants, including the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) SARS-CoV-2, can lead to reduced vaccine effectiveness (VE) and need for vaccines or doses if extent immune evasion is severe. Neutralizing antibody titers have been shown be a correlate protection SARS-CoV-2 other pathogens, could used quickly estimate variants. However, no model currently exists provide precise VE estimates against severe disease using robust datasets from several populations. We developed predictive models COVID-19 symptomatic hospitalization across 54-fold range mean neutralizing titers. For two mRNA (mRNA-1273, BNT162b2), fit without data predicted that infection with BA.1 increased risk 2.8–4.4-fold 1.7–4.2-fold compared Delta variant. Out-of-sample validation showed predictions were accurate; all within 10% observed fell prediction intervals. Predictive rapid estimates, which inform booster timing, design, selection

Язык: Английский

Molnupiravir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19 in Nonhospitalized Patients DOI Open Access

Angélica Jayk Bernal,

Monica Maria Gomes da Silva,

Dany Badibanga Musungaie

и другие.

New England Journal of Medicine, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 386(6), С. 509 - 520

Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2021

New treatments are needed to reduce the risk of progression coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Molnupiravir is an oral, small-molecule antiviral prodrug that active against severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1687

Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics DOI Creative Commons
Louise Dyson, Edward M. Hill, Sam Moore

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 30, 2021

Abstract Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and stochastic importation to investigate effect potential variants concern (VOCs). Calibrating situation in England May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories putative VOCs are wide-ranging dependent on their immune capability, introduction timing postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. demonstrate that VOC substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, properties, can generate wave infections hospitalisations comparable winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, variant is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke infection would not be revealed until control measures further relaxed.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

108

Addressing Vaccine Inequity — Covid-19 Vaccines as a Global Public Good DOI Open Access
David J. Hunter, Salim S. Abdool Karim,

Lindsey R. Baden

и другие.

New England Journal of Medicine, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 386(12), С. 1176 - 1179

Опубликована: Фев. 23, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

102

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study DOI Creative Commons
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E. Dean

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 6, 2023

Abstract Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model evaluate effects of vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected from all WHO regions. We investigate quantify potential higher or earlier doses availability. In doing so, focus crucial initial months distribution administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where assume same per capita daily vaccination rate reported high countries. estimate that more than 50% deaths (min-max range: [54−94%]) occurred analyzed could have averted. further consider LMIC had similarly early access as Even without increasing number doses, an important fraction [6−50%]) absence availability high-income countries, suggests additional non-pharmaceutical interventions inducing considerable relative decrease transmissibility [15−70%]) would required offset lack vaccines. Overall, our results negative impacts underscore need for intensified efforts devoted provide faster programs lower-middle-income

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

68

Vaccine access, equity and justice: COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination DOI Creative Commons
Lois Privor-Dumm, Jean‐Louis Excler, Sarah Gilbert

и другие.

BMJ Global Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 8(6), С. e011881 - e011881

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2023

Although significant progress has been made in achieving goals for COVID-19 vaccine access, the quest equity and justice remains an unfinished agenda. Vaccine nationalism prompted calls new approaches to achieve equitable access not only vaccines but also vaccination. This includes ensuring country community participation global discussions that local needs strengthen health systems, address issues related social determinants of health, build trust leverage acceptance vaccines, are addressed. Regional technology manufacturing hubs promising challenges must be integrated with efforts ensure demand. The current situation underlines need demand system strengthening addressed along priorities achieved. Innovations improve accountability existing platforms needed. Sustained political will investment is required ongoing production non-pandemic sustained demand, particularly when perceived threat disease appears waning. Several recommendations govern towards including codesigning path forward low-income middle-income countries; establishing stronger measures; dedicated groups engage countries affordable supply predictable balance; addressing through leveraging development delivering on product presentations informed by needs. Even if difficult, we converge a definition well advance next pandemic.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

51

Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2 DOI Creative Commons
Caroline E. Wagner, Chadi M. Saad-Roy, Sinead E. Morris

и другие.

Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 373(6562)

Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2021

Stockpiling and control A triumph that has emerged from the catastrophe of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic been rapid development several potent vaccines. However, 18 months into more than 6 after vaccine approval, wealthy countries remain major beneficiaries. Wagner et al . model consequences stockpiling in affluent on disease rates lower- middle-income for eruption new variants could jeopardize early success For can readily access vaccines, it would be better to share vaccines equitably lower burdens with less access, reduce cost having constantly vigilant case imports, minimize virus evolution. —CA

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

100

Multi-country collaboration in responding to global infectious disease threats: lessons for Europe from the COVID-19 pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Mark Jit, Aparna Ananthakrishnan, Martin McKee

и другие.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 9, С. 100221 - 100221

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2021

Since 2005, the world has faced several public health emergencies of international concern arising from infectious disease outbreaks. Of these, COVID-19 pandemic had by far greatest and economic consequences. During these emergencies, responses taken one country often have an impact on other countries. The implication is that coordination between countries likely to achieve better outcomes, individually collectively, than each independently pursuing its own self-interest. pandemic, gaps in multilateral cooperation research information sharing, vaccine development deployment, travel policies hampered speed equity global recovery. In this Health Policy article, we explore how collaboration crucial successful linked Responding future threats will require creation stronger mechanisms for before they arise. A change governance institutions a logical next step, with focus providing equal ownership leadership opportunities all member Europe can be example advocate governed institutions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

69

Modelling vaccination strategies for COVID-19 DOI Open Access
Caroline E. Wagner, Chadi M. Saad-Roy, Bryan T. Grenfell

и другие.

Nature reviews. Immunology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 22(3), С. 139 - 141

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

69

Favipiravir in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 (PIONEER trial): a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised controlled trial of early intervention versus standard care DOI Creative Commons
Pallav L. Shah, Christopher M. Orton, Beatriz Grinsztejn

и другие.

The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 11(5), С. 415 - 424

Опубликована: Дек. 14, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

47

Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment DOI Open Access
Calistus N. Ngonghala, Hémaho B. Taboe,

Salman Safdar

и другие.

Applied Mathematical Modelling, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 114, С. 447 - 465

Опубликована: Сен. 30, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

42