Scientific Reports,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
13(1)
Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2023
Understanding
the
effects
of
climate
change
and
anthropogenic
activities
on
hydrogeomorpholgical
parameters
in
wetlands
ecosystems
is
vital
for
designing
effective
environmental
protection
control
protocols
these
natural
capitals.
This
study
develops
methodological
approach
to
model
streamflow
sediment
inputs
under
combined
land
use
/
cover
(LULC)
changes
using
Soil
Water
Assessment
Tool
(SWAT).
The
precipitation
temperature
data
from
General
Circulation
Models
(GCMs)
different
Shared
Socio-economic
Pathway
(SSP)
scenarios
(i.e.,
SSP1-2.6,
SSP2-4.5,
SSP5-8.5)
are
downscaled
bias-corrected
with
Euclidean
distance
method
quantile
delta
mapping
(QDM)
case
Anzali
wetland
watershed
(AWW)
Iran.
Land
Change
Modeler
(LCM)
adopted
project
future
LULC
at
AWW.
results
indicate
that
air
across
AWW
will
decrease
increase,
respectively,
SSP5-8.5
scenarios.
Streamflow
loads
reduce
sole
influence
SSP2-4.5
An
increase
load
inflow
was
observed
changes,
this
mainly
due
projected
increased
deforestation
urbanization
findings
suggest
densely
vegetated
regions,
located
zones
steep
slope,
significantly
prevents
large
high
input
Under
by
2100,
total
reach
22.66,
20.83,
19.93
million
tons
scenarios,
respectively.
highlight
without
any
robust
interventions,
degrade
ecosystem
partly-fill
basin,
resulting
resigning
Montreux
record
list
Ramsar
Convention
Wetlands
International
Importance.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2018,
Номер
45(7), С. 3285 - 3296
Опубликована: Март 26, 2018
Higher
evaporative
demands
and
more
frequent
persistent
dry
spells
associated
with
rising
temperatures
suggest
that
drought
conditions
could
worsen
in
many
regions
of
the
world.
In
this
study,
we
assess
how
may
develop
across
globe
for
1.5,
2,
3°C
warming
compared
to
preindustrial
temperatures.
Results
show
two
thirds
global
population
will
experience
a
progressive
increase
warming.
For
drying
areas,
durations
are
projected
rise
at
rapidly
increasing
rates
warming,
averaged
globally
from
2.0
month/°C
below
1.5°C
4.2
when
approaching
3°C.
Drought
magnitudes
double
30%
landmass
under
stringent
mitigation.
If
contemporary
continue,
water
supply-demand
deficits
become
fivefold
size
most
Africa,
Australia,
southern
Europe,
central
states
United
States,
Central
America,
Caribbean,
north-west
China,
parts
Southern
America.
approximately
20%
land
surface,
magnitude
halve
higher
levels,
mainly
areas
north
latitude
55°N,
but
also
South
America
Eastern
South-eastern
Asia.
A
significant
frequency
droughts
is
Mediterranean
basin,
West
Asia,
Oceania,
where
happen
5
10
times
even
ambitious
mitigation
targets
current
100-year
events
occur
every
five
years
Climate Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2017,
Номер
50(1-2), С. 31 - 49
Опубликована: Март 25, 2017
Most
bias
correction
algorithms
used
in
climatology,
for
example
quantile
mapping,
are
applied
to
univariate
time
series.
They
neglect
the
dependence
between
different
variables.
Those
that
multivariate
often
correct
only
limited
measures
of
joint
dependence,
such
as
Pearson
or
Spearman
rank
correlation.
Here,
an
image
processing
technique
designed
transfer
colour
information
from
one
another—the
N-dimensional
probability
density
function
transform—is
adapted
use
a
algorithm
(MBCn)
climate
model
projections/predictions
multiple
MBCn
is
generalization
mapping
transfers
all
aspects
observed
continuous
distribution
corresponding
variables
model.
When
projections,
changes
quantiles
each
variable
historical
and
projection
period
also
preserved.
The
demonstrated
on
three
case
studies.
First,
method
with
characteristics
mimic
problem.
Second,
suite
3-hourly
surface
meteorological
Canadian
Centre
Climate
Modelling
Analysis
Regional
Model
(CanRCM4)
across
North
American
domain.
Components
Forest
Fire
Weather
Index
(FWI)
System,
complicated
set
indices
characterizes
risk
wildfire,
then
calculated
verified
against
values.
Third,
biases
spatial
structure
CanRCM4
precipitation
fields.
Results
compared
algorithm,
which
neglects
variables,
two
algorithms,
corrects
form
inter-variable
correlation
structure.
outperforms
these
alternatives,
by
large
margin,
particularly
annual
maxima
FWI
spatiotemporal
autocorrelation
Geoscientific model development,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
12(7), С. 3055 - 3070
Опубликована: Июль 17, 2019
Abstract.
In
this
paper
I
present
new
methods
for
bias
adjustment
and
statistical
downscaling
that
are
tailored
to
the
requirements
of
Inter-Sectoral
Impact
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(ISIMIP).
comparison
their
predecessors,
allow
a
more
robust
extreme
values,
preserve
trends
accurately
across
quantiles,
facilitate
clearer
separation
downscaling.
The
method
is
stochastic
better
at
adjusting
spatial
variability
than
old
interpolation
method.
Improvements
in
trend
preservation
demonstrated
cross-validation
framework.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
10(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 7, 2019
Abstract
Tropical
cyclones
that
rapidly
intensify
are
typically
associated
with
the
highest
forecast
errors
and
cause
a
disproportionate
amount
of
human
financial
losses.
Therefore,
it
is
crucial
to
understand
if,
why,
there
observed
upward
trends
in
tropical
cyclone
intensification
rates.
Here,
we
utilize
two
observational
datasets
calculate
24-hour
wind
speed
changes
over
period
1982–2009.
We
compare
natural
variability
bias-corrected,
high-resolution,
global
coupled
model
experiments
accurately
simulate
climatological
distribution
intensification.
Both
show
significant
increases
rates
Atlantic
basin
highly
unusual
compared
model-based
estimates
internal
climate
variations.
Our
results
suggest
detectable
increase
positive
contribution
from
anthropogenic
forcing
reveal
need
for
more
reliable
data
before
detecting
robust
trend
at
scale.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
126(4)
Опубликована: Ноя. 21, 2020
Abstract
This
paper
analyzes
the
ensemble
of
regional
climate
model
(RCM)
projections
for
Europe
completed
within
EURO‐CORDEX
project.
Projections
are
available
two
greenhouse
gas
concentration
scenarios
RCP2.6
(22
members)
and
RCP8.5
(55
at
0.11°
resolution
from
11
RCMs
driven
by
eight
global
models
(GCMs).
The
RCM
results
compared
with
driving
CMIP5
but
also
a
subset
last
generation
CMIP6
projections.
Maximum
warming
is
projected
all
ensembles
in
Northern
winter,
along
maximum
precipitation
increase
there;
summer,
occurs
Mediterranean
Southern
European
regions
associated
decrease.
shows
largest
signals,
both
temperature
precipitation,
inter‐model
spread.
There
high
consensus
across
on
an
extreme
drought
frequency
region.
Extreme
indices
show
heat
extremes
decrease
cold
extremes,
showing
highest
values
finest
spatial
details.
data
set
unprecedented
size
quality
will
provide
basis
impact
assessment
service
activities
Climatic Change,
Год журнала:
2017,
Номер
143(1-2), С. 13 - 26
Опубликована: Май 16, 2017
Impacts
of
climate
change
at
1.5,
2
and
3
°C
mean
global
warming
above
preindustrial
level
are
investigated
compared
for
runoff,
discharge
snowpack
in
Europe.
Ensembles
projections
representing
each
the
levels
were
assembled
to
describe
hydro-meteorological
°C.
These
ensembles
then
used
force
an
ensemble
five
hydrological
models
changes
indicators
calculated.
It
is
seen
that
there
clear
local
impacts
on
evapotranspiration,
mean,
low
high
runoff
snow
water
equivalent
between
a
degree
warmer
world.
In
world,
more
intense
spatially
extensive.
Robust
increases
affect
Scandinavian
mountains
1.5
°C,
but
extend
over
most
Norway,
Sweden
northern
Poland.
At
Norway
affected
by
robust
all
indicators.
Decreases
annual
only
Portugal
warming,
decreases
around
entire
Iberian
coast,
Balkan
Coast
parts
French
coast.
Europe,
distinct
increase
strengthening
case
mitigation
lower
warming.
Between
continue
increase,
less
clear.
Changes
Europe's
larger
rivers
due
lack
homogenous
across
river
catchments,
with
exception
Scandinavia
where
discharges
level.
Scientific Reports,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
10(1)
Опубликована: Авг. 14, 2020
Abstract
Wildfire
activity
is
expected
to
increase
across
the
Mediterranean
Basin
because
of
climate
change.
However,
effects
future
change
on
combinations
atmospheric
conditions
that
promote
wildfire
remain
largely
unknown.
Using
a
fire-weather
based
classification
wildfires,
we
show
scenarios
point
an
in
frequency
two
heat-induced
types
have
been
related
largest
wildfires
recent
years.
Heat-induced
are
characterized
by
compound
dry
and
warm
occurring
during
summer
heatwaves,
either
under
moderate
(
heatwave
type)
or
intense
hot
drought
drought.
The
projected
14%
end
century
(2071–2100)
RCP4.5
scenario,
30%
RCP8.5,
suggesting
extent
large
will
throughout
Basin.
Journal of Climate,
Год журнала:
2016,
Номер
29(19), С. 7045 - 7064
Опубликована: Май 6, 2016
Abstract
Univariate
bias
correction
algorithms,
such
as
quantile
mapping,
are
used
to
address
systematic
biases
in
climate
model
output.
Intervariable
dependence
structure
(e.g.,
between
different
quantities
like
temperature
and
precipitation
or
sites)
is
typically
ignored,
which
can
have
an
impact
on
subsequent
calculations
that
depend
multiple
variables.
A
novel
multivariate
(MBC)
algorithm
introduced
a
multidimensional
analog
of
univariate
mapping.
Two
variants
presented.
MBCp
MBCr
respectively
correct
Pearson
correlation
Spearman
rank
structure,
with
marginal
distributions
both
constrained
match
observed
via
MBC
demonstrated
two
case
studies:
1)
bivariate
monthly
output
from
large
ensemble
models
2)
vertical
humidity
wind
profiles,
including
calculation
vertically
integrated
water
vapor
transport
detection
atmospheric
rivers.
The
energy
distance
recommended
omnibus
measure
performance
for
selection.
As
expected,
substantial
improvements
relative
mapping
found
each
case.
For
reference,
characteristics
the
compared
against
existing
techniques.
performs
competitively
fills
role
flexible,
general
purpose
algorithm.
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2017,
Номер
21(6), С. 2649 - 2666
Опубликована: Июнь 6, 2017
Abstract.
Commonly
used
bias
correction
methods
such
as
quantile
mapping
(QM)
assume
the
function
of
error
values
between
modeled
and
observed
distributions
are
stationary
or
time
invariant.
This
article
finds
that
this
cannot
be
assumed
to
stationary.
As
a
result,
QM
lacks
justification
inflate/deflate
various
moments
climate
change
signal.
Previous
adaptations
QM,
most
notably
delta
(QDM),
have
been
developed
do
not
rely
on
assumption
stationarity.
Here,
we
outline
methodology
called
scaled
distribution
(SDM),
which
is
conceptually
similar
QDM,
but
more
explicitly
accounts
for
frequency
rain
days
likelihood
individual
events.
The
SDM
method
found
outperform
detrended
in
its
ability
better
preserve
raw
model
projected
changes
meteorological
variables
temperature
precipitation.