Global Ecology and Conservation,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
22, С. e00886 - e00886
Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2019
Scenario-based
modelling
is
a
powerful
tool
to
describe
relationships
between
plausible
trajectories
of
drivers,
possible
policy
interventions,
and
impacts
on
biodiversity
ecosystem
services.
Model
inter-comparisons
are
key
in
quantifying
uncertainties
identifying
avenues
for
model
improvement
but
have
been
missing
among
the
global
services
communities.
The
scenario-based
inter-model
comparison
(BES-SIM)
aims
fill
this
gap.
We
used
land-use
climate
projections
simulate
future
terrestrial
using
variety
models
range
harmonized
metrics.
goal
paper
reflect
steps
taken
BES-SIM,
identify
remaining
methodological
challenges,
suggest
pathways
improvement.
identified
five
major
groups
challenges;
need
to:
1)
better
account
role
nature
human
development
storylines;
2)
improve
representation
drivers
scenarios
by
increasing
resolution
(temporal,
spatial
thematic)
as
driver
change
including
additional
relevant
drivers;
3)
explicitly
integrate
species-
trait-level
models;
4)
expand
coverage
multiple
dimensions
services;
finally,
5)
incorporate
time-series
or
one-off
historical
data
calibration
validation
models.
Addressing
these
challenges
would
allow
more
integrated
services,
thereby
improving
their
relevance
supporting
interlinked
international
conservation
sustainable
agendas.
Ecology Letters,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
23(9), С. 1404 - 1420
Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2020
Agriculture
and
development
transform
forest
ecosystems
to
human-modified
landscapes.
Decades
of
research
in
ecology
have
generated
myriad
concepts
for
the
appropriate
management
these
Yet,
are
often
contradictory
apply
at
different
spatial
scales,
making
design
biodiversity-friendly
landscapes
challenging.
Here,
we
combine
with
empirical
support
optimal
landscape
scenarios
forest-dwelling
species.
The
supported
indicate
that
appropriately
sized
should
contain
≥
40%
cover,
although
higher
percentages
likely
needed
tropics.
Forest
cover
be
configured
c.
10%
a
very
large
patch,
remaining
30%
many
evenly
dispersed
smaller
patches
semi-natural
treed
elements
(e.g.
vegetation
corridors).
Importantly,
embedded
high-quality
matrix.
proposed
represent
an
compromise
between
delivery
goods
services
humans
preserving
most
wildlife,
can
therefore
guide
preservation
restoration
strategies.
Global Change Biology,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
26(2), С. 760 - 771
Опубликована: Ноя. 3, 2019
Abstract
Scenario‐based
biodiversity
modelling
is
a
powerful
approach
to
evaluate
how
possible
future
socio‐economic
developments
may
affect
biodiversity.
Here,
we
evaluated
the
changes
in
terrestrial
intactness,
expressed
by
mean
species
abundance
(MSA)
metric,
resulting
from
three
of
shared
pathways
(SSPs)
combined
with
different
levels
climate
change
(according
representative
concentration
[RCPs]):
oriented
towards
sustainability
(SSP1xRCP2.6),
determined
politically
divided
world
(SSP3xRCP6.0)
and
continued
global
dependency
on
fossil
fuels
(SSP5xRCP8.5).
To
this
end,
first
updated
GLOBIO
model,
which
now
runs
at
spatial
resolution
10
arc‐seconds
(~300
m),
contains
new
modules
for
downscaling
land
use
quantifying
impacts
hunting
tropics,
quantify
change,
use,
habitat
fragmentation
nitrogen
pollution.
We
then
used
model
project
intactness
2015
2050
as
function
corresponding
selected
scenarios.
estimated
area‐weighted
MSA
0.56
2015.
Biodiversity
declined
all
scenarios,
yet
decline
was
smaller
scenario
(−0.02)
than
regional
rivalry
fossil‐fuelled
development
scenarios
(−0.06
−0.05
respectively).
further
found
considerable
variation
projected
among
regions,
large
losses
particularly
sub‐Saharan
Africa.
In
some
scenario‐region
combinations,
recovery
due
reduced
demands
agricultural
land,
counteracted
increased
other
pressures
(notably
road
disturbance).
Effective
measures
halt
or
reverse
should
not
only
reduce
demand
(e.g.
increasing
productivity
dietary
changes)
but
also
focus
reducing
mitigating
pressures.
Nature Ecology & Evolution,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
5(11), С. 1510 - 1519
Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2021
Abstract
The
Anthropocene
is
characterized
by
unparalleled
human
impact
on
other
species,
potentially
ushering
in
the
sixth
mass
extinction.
Yet
mitigation
efforts
remain
hampered
limited
information
spatial
patterns
and
intensity
of
threats
driving
global
biodiversity
loss.
Here
we
use
expert-derived
from
International
Union
for
Conservation
Nature
Red
List
to
23,271
representing
all
terrestrial
amphibians,
birds
mammals,
generate
maps
six
major
these
groups:
agriculture,
hunting
trapping,
logging,
pollution,
invasive
climate
change.
Our
results
show
that
agriculture
logging
are
pervasive
tropics
trapping
most
geographically
widespread
threat
mammals
birds.
Additionally,
current
representations
pressure
underestimate
overall
biodiversity,
due
exclusion
such
as
Alarmingly,
this
particularly
case
areas
highest
importance.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
25(5), С. 763 - 787
Опубликована: Март 12, 2020
Abstract
Given
the
short
time-frame
to
limit
global
warming,
and
current
emissions
gap,
it
is
critical
prioritise
mitigation
actions.
To
date,
scant
attention
has
been
paid
benefits
of
primary
forest
protection.
We
estimated
tropical
ecosystem
carbon
stocks
flows.
The
stock
forests
at
141–159
Pg
C
(billion
tonnes
carbon)
which
some
49–53%
all
carbon,
living
biomass
component
alone
91–103%
remaining
budget
warming
below
1.5
degrees
above
pre-industrial
levels.
Furthermore,
have
ongoing
sequestration
rates
0.47–1.3
yr
−1
,
equivalent
8–13%
annual
anthropogenic
CO
2
(carbon
dioxide)
emissions.
examined
three
main
forest-based
strategies
used
in
land
sector—halting
deforestation,
increasing
restoration
improving
sustainable
management
production
forests.
protection
are
contingent
upon
how
degradation
defined
accounted
for,
while
those
from
also
depend
on
understood
applied.
Through
proforestation,
reduced
secondary
can
regrow
their
natural
carrying
capacity
or
state.
evaluated
published
data
studies
comparing
logged
unlogged
On
average,
store
around
35%
more
carbon.
While
comparisons
confounded
by
a
range
factors,
reported
recovery
were
40
100+
years.
There
substantive
portfolio
actions
interventions
available
policy
decision-makers,
depending
national
circumstances,
addition
SFM
plantation
focused
approaches,
that
be
grouped
into
four
strategies:
protection;
reforestation
restoration;
reform
guidelines,
accounting
rules
default
values;
landscape
conservation
planning.
merely
reduce
rate
against
historic
projected
reference
levels
insufficient.
Mitigation
needed
explicitly
avoid
where
possible
as
well
enabling
sequestration.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
46(1), С. 221 - 254
Опубликована: Авг. 20, 2021
Several
hundred
species
are
hunted
for
wild
meat
in
the
tropics,
supporting
diets,
customs,
and
livelihoods
of
millions
people.
However,
unsustainable
hunting
is
one
most
urgent
threats
to
wildlife
ecosystems
worldwide
has
serious
ramifications
people
whose
subsistence
income
tied
meat.
Over
past
18
years,
although
research
efforts
have
increased,
scientific
knowledge
largely
not
translated
into
action.
One
major
barrier
progress
been
insufficient
monitoring
evaluation,
meaning
that
effectiveness
interventions
cannot
be
ascertained.
Emerging
issues
include
difficulty
designing
regulatory
frameworks
disentangle
different
purposes
hunting,
large
scale
urban
consumption,
implications
consumption
human
health.
To
address
these
intractable
challenges,
wepropose
eight
new
recommendations
action
sustainable
use,
which
would
support
achievement
United
Nations
Sustainable
Development
Goals.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
380(1917)
Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025
Human-driven
habitat
loss
is
recognized
as
the
greatest
cause
of
biodiversity
crisis,
yet
to
date
we
lack
robust,
spatially
explicit
metrics
quantifying
impacts
anthropogenic
changes
in
extent
on
species’
extinctions.
Existing
either
fail
consider
species
identity
or
focus
solely
recent
losses.
The
persistence
score
approach
developed
by
Durán
et
al
.
(Durán
al.
2020
Methods
Ecol.
Evol
11
,
910–921
(doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13427)
represented
an
important
development
combining
ecologies
and
land-cover
data
while
considering
cumulative
non-linear
impact
past
probability
extinction.
However,
it
computationally
demanding,
limiting
its
global
use
application.
Here
couple
with
high-performance
computing
generate
maps
what
term
LIFE
(Land-cover
change
Impacts
Future
Extinctions)
metric
for
30
875
terrestrial
vertebrates
at
1
arc-min
resolution
(3.4
km
2
equator).
These
provide
quantitative
estimates,
first
time,
marginal
expected
number
extinctions
(both
increases
decreases)
caused
converting
remaining
natural
vegetation
agriculture,
restoring
farmland
habitat.
We
demonstrate
statistically
that
this
integrates
information
richness,
endemism
loss.
Our
resulting
can
be
used
scales
from
0.5–1000
offer
unprecedented
opportunities
estimate
diverse
actions
affect
land
cover,
individual
dietary
choices
through
protected
area
development.
This
article
part
discussion
meeting
issue
‘Bending
curve
towards
nature
recovery:
building
Georgina
Mace's
legacy
a
biodiverse
future’.