Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services DOI Creative Commons
Isabel M.D. Rosa, Andy Purvis, Rob Alkemade

и другие.

Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 22, С. e00886 - e00886

Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2019

Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global services communities. The scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims fill this gap. We used land-use climate projections simulate future terrestrial using variety models range harmonized metrics. goal paper reflect steps taken BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, suggest pathways improvement. identified five major groups challenges; need to: 1) better account role nature human development storylines; 2) improve representation drivers scenarios by increasing resolution (temporal, spatial thematic) as driver change including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- trait-level models; 4) expand coverage multiple dimensions services; finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data calibration validation models. Addressing these challenges would allow more integrated services, thereby improving their relevance supporting interlinked international conservation sustainable agendas.

Язык: Английский

Designing optimal human‐modified landscapes for forest biodiversity conservation DOI
Victor Arroyo‐Rodríguez, Lenore Fahrig, Marcelo Tabarelli

и другие.

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 23(9), С. 1404 - 1420

Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2020

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management these Yet, are often contradictory apply at different spatial scales, making design biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine with empirical support optimal landscape scenarios forest-dwelling species. The supported indicate that appropriately sized should contain ≥ 40% cover, although higher percentages likely needed tropics. Forest cover be configured c. 10% a very large patch, remaining 30% many evenly dispersed smaller patches semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, embedded high-quality matrix. proposed represent an compromise between delivery goods services humans preserving most wildlife, can therefore guide preservation restoration strategies.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

445

Monitoring biodiversity in the Anthropocene using remote sensing in species distribution models DOI
Christophe F. Randin, Michael B. Ashcroft, Janine Bolliger

и другие.

Remote Sensing of Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 239, С. 111626 - 111626

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2020

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

226

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4 DOI Creative Commons
Aafke M. Schipper, Jelle P. Hilbers, Johan R. Meijer

и другие.

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 26(2), С. 760 - 771

Опубликована: Ноя. 3, 2019

Abstract Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial intactness, expressed by mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of shared pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels climate change (according representative concentration [RCPs]): oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), determined politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, first updated GLOBIO model, which now runs at spatial resolution 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use quantifying impacts hunting tropics, quantify change, use, habitat fragmentation nitrogen pollution. We then used model project intactness 2015 2050 as function corresponding selected scenarios. estimated area‐weighted MSA 0.56 2015. Biodiversity declined all scenarios, yet decline was smaller scenario (−0.02) than regional rivalry fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 −0.05 respectively). further found considerable variation projected among regions, large losses particularly sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, recovery due reduced demands agricultural land, counteracted increased other pressures (notably road disturbance). Effective measures halt or reverse should not only reduce demand (e.g. increasing productivity dietary changes) but also focus reducing mitigating pressures.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

197

Using the IUCN Red List to map threats to terrestrial vertebrates at global scale DOI Creative Commons
Michael Harfoot, Alison Johnston, Andrew Balmford

и другие.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(11), С. 1510 - 1519

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2021

Abstract The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered limited information spatial patterns and intensity of threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived from International Union for Conservation Nature Red List to 23,271 representing all terrestrial amphibians, birds mammals, generate maps six major these groups: agriculture, hunting trapping, logging, pollution, invasive climate change. Our results show that agriculture logging are pervasive tropics trapping most geographically widespread threat mammals birds. Additionally, current representations pressure underestimate overall biodiversity, due exclusion such as Alarmingly, this particularly case areas highest importance.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

161

Understanding the importance of primary tropical forest protection as a mitigation strategy DOI Creative Commons
Brendan Mackey, Cyril Kormos, Heather Keith

и другие.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 25(5), С. 763 - 787

Опубликована: Март 12, 2020

Abstract Given the short time-frame to limit global warming, and current emissions gap, it is critical prioritise mitigation actions. To date, scant attention has been paid benefits of primary forest protection. We estimated tropical ecosystem carbon stocks flows. The stock forests at 141–159 Pg C (billion tonnes carbon) which some 49–53% all carbon, living biomass component alone 91–103% remaining budget warming below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, have ongoing sequestration rates 0.47–1.3 yr −1 , equivalent 8–13% annual anthropogenic CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emissions. examined three main forest-based strategies used in land sector—halting deforestation, increasing restoration improving sustainable management production forests. protection are contingent upon how degradation defined accounted for, while those from also depend on understood applied. Through proforestation, reduced secondary can regrow their natural carrying capacity or state. evaluated published data studies comparing logged unlogged On average, store around 35% more carbon. While comparisons confounded by a range factors, reported recovery were 40 100+ years. There substantive portfolio actions interventions available policy decision-makers, depending national circumstances, addition SFM plantation focused approaches, that be grouped into four strategies: protection; reforestation restoration; reform guidelines, accounting rules default values; landscape conservation planning. merely reduce rate against historic projected reference levels insufficient. Mitigation needed explicitly avoid where possible as well enabling sequestration.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

154

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework DOI
Emily Nicholson, Kate E. Watermeyer, Jessica A. Rowland

и другие.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(10), С. 1338 - 1349

Опубликована: Авг. 16, 2021

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

135

Wild Meat Is Still on the Menu: Progress in Wild Meat Research, Policy, and Practice from 2002 to 2020 DOI Open Access
Daniel J. Ingram,

Lauren Coad,

E.J. Milner‐Gulland

и другие.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 46(1), С. 221 - 254

Опубликована: Авг. 20, 2021

Several hundred species are hunted for wild meat in the tropics, supporting diets, customs, and livelihoods of millions people. However, unsustainable hunting is one most urgent threats to wildlife ecosystems worldwide has serious ramifications people whose subsistence income tied meat. Over past 18 years, although research efforts have increased, scientific knowledge largely not translated into action. One major barrier progress been insufficient monitoring evaluation, meaning that effectiveness interventions cannot be ascertained. Emerging issues include difficulty designing regulatory frameworks disentangle different purposes hunting, large scale urban consumption, implications consumption human health. To address these intractable challenges, wepropose eight new recommendations action sustainable use, which would support achievement United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

120

Reduced deforestation and degradation in Indigenous Lands pan-tropically DOI
Jocelyne S. Sze, L. Román Carrasco, Dylan Z. Childs

и другие.

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(2), С. 123 - 130

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2021

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

114

Landscape-scale benefits of protected areas for tropical biodiversity DOI
Jedediah F. Brodie, Jayasilan Mohd‐Azlan, Cheng Chen

и другие.

Nature, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 620(7975), С. 807 - 812

Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2023

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

47

LIFE: A metric for mapping the impact of land-cover change on global extinctions DOI Creative Commons
Alison Eyres, Thomas Ball,

Michael Dales

и другие.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1917)

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Human-driven habitat loss is recognized as the greatest cause of biodiversity crisis, yet to date we lack robust, spatially explicit metrics quantifying impacts anthropogenic changes in extent on species’ extinctions. Existing either fail consider species identity or focus solely recent losses. The persistence score approach developed by Durán et al . (Durán al. 2020 Methods Ecol. Evol 11 , 910–921 (doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13427) represented an important development combining ecologies and land-cover data while considering cumulative non-linear impact past probability extinction. However, it computationally demanding, limiting its global use application. Here couple with high-performance computing generate maps what term LIFE (Land-cover change Impacts Future Extinctions) metric for 30 875 terrestrial vertebrates at 1 arc-min resolution (3.4 km 2 equator). These provide quantitative estimates, first time, marginal expected number extinctions (both increases decreases) caused converting remaining natural vegetation agriculture, restoring farmland habitat. We demonstrate statistically that this integrates information richness, endemism loss. Our resulting can be used scales from 0.5–1000 offer unprecedented opportunities estimate diverse actions affect land cover, individual dietary choices through protected area development. This article part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace's legacy a biodiverse future’.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3