Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 235, С. 104241 - 104241

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Adaptation to compound climate risks: A systematic global stocktake

iScience, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 26(2), С. 105926 - 105926

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2023

This article provides a stocktake of the adaptation literature between 2013 and 2019 to better understand how responses affect risk under particularly challenging conditions compound climate events. Across 39 countries, 45 response types hazards display anticipatory (9%), reactive (33%), maladaptive (41%) characteristics, as well hard (18%) soft (68%) limits adaptation. Low income, food insecurity, access institutional resources finance are most prominent 23 vulnerabilities observed negatively responses. Risk for security, health, livelihoods, economic outputs commonly associated risks driving Narrow geographical sectoral foci highlight important conceptual, sectoral, geographic areas future research way shape risk. When integrated within assessment management, there is greater potential advance urgency safeguards vulnerable.

Язык: Английский

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Challenges in assessing and managing multi-hazard risks: A European stakeholders perspective

Environmental Science & Policy, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 157, С. 103774 - 103774

Опубликована: Май 4, 2024

The latest evidence suggests that multi-hazards and their interrelationships (e.g., triggering, compound, consecutive hazards) are becoming more frequent across Europe, underlying a need for resilience building by moving from single-hazard-focused to multi-hazard risk assessment management. Although significant advancements were made in our understanding of these events, mainstream practice is still focused on risks due single hazards flooding, earthquakes, droughts), with limited the stakeholder needs ground. To overcome this limitation, paper sets out understand challenges towards management through perspective European stakeholders. Based five workshops different pilots (Danube Region, Veneto Scandinavia, North Sea, Canary Islands) an expert workshop, we identify prime challenges: i) governance, ii) knowledge multi-risks, iii) existing approaches disaster management, iv) translation science policy practice, v) lack data. These inherently linked cannot be tackled isolation path dependency posing hurdle transitioning single- Going forward, promising overcoming some challenges, including emerging characterisation, common terminology, comprehensive framework guiding We argue think beyond natural include other threats creating overview risks, as well promoting thinking reduction context larger development goals.

Язык: Английский

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Cross-sectoral impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin

Regional Environmental Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 23(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2023

The 2018-2019 Central European drought was probably the most extreme in Germany since early sixteenth century. We assess multiple consequences of for natural systems, economy and human health German part Elbe River basin, an area 97,175 km2 including cities Berlin Hamburg contributing about 18% to GDP. employ meteorological, hydrological socio-economic data build a comprehensive picture severity, its effects cross-sectoral basin. Time series different indices illustrate severity how it progressed from meteorological water deficits via soil depletion towards low groundwater levels river runoff, losses vegetation productivity. event resulted severe production agriculture (minus 20-40% staple crops) forestry (especially through forced logging damaged wood: 25.1 million tons 2018-2020 compared only 3.4 2015-2017), while other economic sectors remained largely unaffected. However, there is no guarantee that this stability will be sustained future events; discussed light 2022, another dry year holding potential compound crisis. Given increased probability more intense long-lasting droughts parts Europe, example actual impacts relevant awareness preparation planning regions.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02032-3.

Язык: Английский

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Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between coupled natural social systems. However, current decision‐making processes typically only consider one impact disaster event at time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, conditional dependencies impacts. Analyses capturing these patterns across space time are thus needed inform effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims bridge this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics multi‐sector CCI hydrological extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, potential ways forward. Rather than pursuing single methodological approach, we advocate pluralism. see complementary or even convergent roles analyses based on quantitative (e.g., data‐mining, systems modeling) qualitative mental models, storylines). The data‐driven knowledge‐driven provided here serve useful starting point understanding both high‐frequency low‐likelihood but high‐impact CCI. With perspective, hope foster research improve development strategies reducing risk

Язык: Английский

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Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(9)

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2023

Abstract In the last few years, world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological climate hazards. This mainly due complexity drought, high level uncertainties in its analysis, lack community agreement on a common framework tackle problem. Here, we outline effectively assess manage risks, perspective needed. We propose novel highlights nature show operationalization using example 2022 Europe. research emphasizes solutions growing risks should not only consider underlying drivers for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based an understanding sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding concurring hazards, as well possible tipping points globally and/or regionally networked risks.

Язык: Английский

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Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Global Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 7

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability implications overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for rapid managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future contribution sinks, (5) intertwinedness crises biodiversity loss change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility face risks, (9) adaptation justice, (10) just transitions food systems. Technical The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides scientific foundation international negotiations constitutes an unmatched resource researchers. However, assessment cycles take multiple years. As to cross- interdisciplinary understanding diverse communities, we have streamlined annual process synthesize significant advances. collected input from experts various fields using online questionnaire prioritized 10 key insights relevance. This year, focus on: overshoot urgency scale-up joint governance accelerated amidst present succinct account these insights, reflect their implications, offer integrated policy-relevant messages. science synthesis communication effort is also basis report contributing elevate every year time United Nations Conference. Social media highlight – more than 200 experts.

Язык: Английский

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South America is becoming warmer, drier, and more flammable

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 26, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Learnings From the Co‐Development of Priority Risks in Australia's First National Climate Risk Assessment

Climate Resilience and Sustainability, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 3, 2025

ABSTRACT Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment is built on the latest science as well learnings from other countries’ national risk assessments. The goal of assessment was to identify priority risks climate change Australia a nation. Due timeline obligations, this process needed be completed in 4 months, considerably shorter timeframe than In paper, authors share implementing pass Assessment, which brought together more 240 stakeholders across eight systems co‐develop set risks. These are used provide recommendations and advice for working at scale within short timeframes. First, rapid can bring significant diversity range engage broad perspective priorities that should pursued. Second, design multiple opportunities iterate through drafts succession. Third, bringing into discussion increase understanding how connected future work could pursued effective management adaptation planning. Our help inform assessments embrace complexity systemic highlight importance building stakeholder networks support both follows.

Язык: Английский

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Projected distribution patterns of Alpinia officinarum in China under future climate scenarios: insights from optimized Maxent and Biomod2 models

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2025

Alpinia officinarum , commonly known as Galangal, is not only widely used a medicinal plant but also holds significant ornamental value in horticulture and landscape design due to its unique structure floral aesthetics China. This study evaluates the impact of current future climate change scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, ssp585) on suitable habitats for A. A total 73 reliable distribution points were collected, 11 key environmental variables selected. The ENMeval package was optimize Maxent model, potential areas predicted combination with Biomod2. results show that optimized model accurately Under low emission (ssp126 ssp245), habitat area increased expanded towards higher latitudes. However, under high (ssp370 ssp585), significantly decreased, species range shrinking by approximately 3.7% 19.8%, respectively. Through Multivariate similarity surface (MESS) most dissimilar variable (MoD) analyses revealed variability scenarios, especially ssp585, led large-scale contraction rising temperatures unstable precipitation patterns. Changes center suitability location showed ’s located Guangxi, gradually shifts northwest, while this shift becomes more pronounced. These findings provide scientific basis conservation germplasm resources management strategies response change.

Язык: Английский

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