Large radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is hard to detect
Abstract
A
key
uncertainty
in
projecting
the
rate
of
future
warming
derives
from
regulations
on
aerosol
emissions
that
involve
socioeconomic
decisions.
Given
a
reduction
cooling
unmasks
greenhouse
gas
warming,
2020
implementation
strict
sulfur
content
ship
fuels
(IMO2020)
presents
natural
experiment
can
be
used
to
assess
potential
impacts
emission
and
detectability
deliberate
perturbations
for
climate
intervention.
Using
an
ensemble
neural
networks
trained
capture
variability
cloud
driven
by
variations
meteorological
conditions,
we
estimate
substantial
global
radiative
forcing
+0.084
±0.006
W
m-2
IMO2020-related
changes
low-cloud
effect.
We
find
strong
masking
effect
this
perturbation,
manifested
as
high
chances
missed
detection
false
detection.
After
removing
effect,
true
detection-fraction
IMO2020’s
perturbation
is
at
most
6%,
while
microphysical
have
higher
chance
being
detected.
These
results
raise
concerns
reductions
will
accelerate
proposed
such
marine
brightening
need
order
overcome
low
detectability.
Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Июнь 24, 2024
Язык: Английский