Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100

Earth System Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(1), С. 159 - 199

Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2022

Abstract. The Baltic Sea, located in northern Europe, is a semi-enclosed, shallow and tideless sea with seasonal sea-ice cover its sub-basins. Its long water residence time contributes to oxygen depletion the bottom of southern In this study, recently performed scenario simulations for Sea including marine biogeochemistry were analysed compared earlier published projections. Specifically, dynamical downscaling using regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model was used regionalise four global Earth system models. However, as regional does not include components representing terrestrial biogeochemistry, an additional catchment physical–biogeochemical included. take impact various level rise scenarios into account. According projections, present climate, higher temperatures, shallower mixed layer sharper thermocline during summer, less greater mixing winter can be expected. Both frequency duration heat waves will increase significantly, particular coastal zone (except regions frequent upwellings). Nonetheless, due uncertainties projections regarding winds, cycle rise, robust statistically significant salinity changes could identified. changing on biogeochemical cycling predicted considerable but still smaller than that plausible nutrient input changes. Implementing proposed Action Plan, abatement plan entire area, would result significantly improved ecological status reductions size hypoxic area also future which turn resilience against anticipated change. While our findings heat-cycle variables mainly confirm simulations, they differ substantially from cycles, differences experimental setups bioavailable nutrients.

Язык: Английский

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Harmful Algal Blooms in Eutrophic Marine Environments: Causes, Monitoring, and Treatment

Water, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(17), С. 2525 - 2525

Опубликована: Сен. 5, 2024

Marine eutrophication, primarily driven by nutrient over input from agricultural runoff, wastewater discharge, and atmospheric deposition, leads to harmful algal blooms (HABs) that pose a severe threat marine ecosystems. This review explores the causes, monitoring methods, control strategies for eutrophication in environments. Monitoring techniques include remote sensing, automated situ sensors, modeling, forecasting, metagenomics. Remote sensing provides large-scale temporal spatial data, while sensors offer real-time, high-resolution monitoring. Modeling forecasting use historical data environmental variables predict blooms, metagenomics insights into microbial community dynamics. Control treatments encompass physical, chemical, biological treatments, as well advanced technologies like nanotechnology, electrocoagulation, ultrasonic treatment. Physical such aeration mixing, are effective but costly energy-intensive. Chemical including phosphorus precipitation, quickly reduce levels may have ecological side effects. Biological biomanipulation bioaugmentation, sustainable require careful management of interactions. Advanced innovative solutions with varying costs sustainability profiles. Comparing these methods highlights trade-offs between efficacy, cost, impact, emphasizing need integrated approaches tailored specific conditions. underscores importance combining mitigate adverse effects on

Язык: Английский

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State of the art modelling for the Black Sea ecosystem to support European policies

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 20(1), С. e0312170 - e0312170

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

The Black Sea is affected by numerous anthropogenic pressures, such as eutrophication and pollution through coastal river discharges, fisheries overexploitation, species invasions, the impacts of climate change. Growing concerns regarding cumulative effects these pressures have necessitated need for an ecosystem approach to assessing state this basin. In recent years, European Commission-JRC has developed a scientific modelling tool, Blue2 Modelling Framework with aim exploring consequences EU management policy options on marine ecosystems. This framework been designed provide information specific ecological indicators set out in legislation. Here, we present ecosystem. model represented mid-1990s’ conditions including trophic levels from primary producers mammals sea birds. simulations covered period 1995–2021. results showed that gulls & cormorant seabirds, sprat, horse mackerel mugilidae had structuring role food web. Fishing fleets indirect negative addition commercially exploited species. Analysis confirmed overall temporal degradation when comparing other models, whilst comparison Mediterranean allowed us identify comparable between similar structures. spatial/temporal successfully simulated ongoing declining dynamics biomasses majority functional groups significant observed decreasing trends during simulation period. first attempt represent historical current spatially temporally, serving reference baseline evaluating scenarios assisting makers evaluation potential environmental options.

Язык: Английский

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Copernicus Ocean State Report, issue 6

Journal of Operational Oceanography, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(sup1), С. 1 - 220

Опубликована: Авг. 31, 2022

Statement of main outcome: This section presents a satellite-based map potential eutrophic and oligotrophic areas in the European Seas for year 2020, together with time series eutrophication past 23 years (1998-2020) averaged over Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) each country.The were generated on basis comparison per-pixel chlorophyll-a data from remote sensing reporting corresponding climatological 90th percentile (P90) established 20-year baseline (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017).The results showed few scattered areas, while extensive coastal shelf waters indicate status.The distributions point to localities that should be watch determine situ nutrient levels whether trend is sustained into future.The at EEZ level low percentages across area some remarkable high events occurring first decade study period, followed by an overall reduction 2013 onwards.Furthermore, several countries, indicator was often nil or never exceeded 1% area.Results are then compared those Sustainable Development Goal (SDG, set United Nations General Assembly) 14 global satellite-derived (target 14.1).

Язык: Английский

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Effects of Nutrient Management Scenarios on Marine Food Webs: A Pan-European Assessment in Support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 8

Опубликована: Март 23, 2021

Eutrophication is one of the most important anthropogenic pressures impacting coastal seas. In Europe, several legislations and management measures have been implemented to halt nutrient overloading in marine ecosystems. This study evaluates impact freshwater control on higher trophic levels (HTL) European ecosystems following descriptors criteria as defined by Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We used a novel pan-European modeling ensemble fourteen HTL models, covering almost all EU seas, under two scenarios. Results from our projections suggest that proposed reduction may not significant structure function Among assessed criteria, spawning stock biomass commercially fish stocks small pelagic fishes would be impacted, albeit with values lower than 2.5%. For other criteria/indicators, such species diversity level indicators, was lower. The Black Sea North-East Atlantic were negatively impacted regions, while Baltic only region showing signs improvement. Coastal shelf areas more sensitive environmental changes large regional sub-regional also include open first multi-model comparison assess impacts land-based through set selected ecological indicators. Since are expanding apace environment policy makers need use rapid effective for fast-changing environments, this framework an essential asset supporting guiding needs decisions.

Язык: Английский

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Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 10

Опубликована: Май 15, 2023

The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment simulate the North-East Atlantic waters. Using ecosystem ensemble combined with observation-based weighting method we derive sophisticated estimates key eutrophication indicators. Eight modelling centres applied same riverine nutrient loads, atmospheric deposition rates and boundary conditions their specific set-up ensure comparability. was defined as a historic scenario estimated inputs (riverine, atmospheric) at around year 1900, before invention widespread use industrial fertilizers. period 2009-2014 used by all participants both current scenario, that differences are solely due changes in between scenarios. Mean values were reported winter dissolved inorganic nutrients total (nitrogen, phosphorus) nitrogen phosphorus ratio, growing season chlorophyll, chlorophyll 90 th percentile, near-bed oxygen minimum net phytoplankton production on level areas. Results showed distinctly lower concentrations ratio’s coastal areas under compared (except Meuse Plume Seine areas). Chlorophyll be much ~40% some areas, levels. Dissolved levels found up 60% certain weighted average approach reduced disparities, delivered each area. Our open possibility establish reference indicators across regions. new ensures local functioning better represented while political boundaries largely ignored. As such, less associated member states than boundaries.

Язык: Английский

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Methodology for prioritizing marine environmental pressures under various management scenarios in the Black Sea

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11

Опубликована: Июнь 24, 2024

This study aims to develop a methodology for identifying predominant pressures on the marine ecosystem, emphasizing significance of examining these and necessity management scenarios. The research focuses how Black Sea ecosystem responds combined effects human pressures, climate change, policies. An in-depth analysis was conducted environmental affecting Romanian Sea, highlighting dominant such as physical habitat loss, hydrocarbon introduction, non-indigenous species invasion. employs novel methodological approach assess implications under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1 “Taking Green Road”, SSP2 “Middle SSP5 Highway”. findings reveal complex interplay between economic development conservation, with each pathway presenting distinct outcomes ecosystems. Recent developments, including beach rehabilitation, maritime transport, oil gas exploitation, have overshadowed traditional nutrient introduction fishing. identifies increasing vulnerability critical habitats anthropogenic rehabilitation ecosystems remaining challenging even reduced pressures. results underscore need adaptive strategies enhance ecosystem’s sustainability resilience. study’s insights are important developing that address ongoing challenges. provides knowledge policymakers stakeholders involved in conservation efforts region, importance mitigate adverse activities change

Язык: Английский

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Recent regional changes in nutrient fluxes of European surface waters

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 858, С. 160063 - 160063

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

We have quantified inputs and fate of nutrients in European fresh marine waters from 1990 to 2018. used the conceptual model GREEN assess impact efforts on curbing nutrient pollution regions. In first two decades, i.e. 1990s through start new millennium, decreased significantly. Nutrient freshwaters sea largely reduced all regions, although at different pace. However, around 2008-2010 trends changed, marking an increase last decade, particularly agricultural diffuse sources. some current are close those estimated beginning 1990s. At end study period, concentrations remain above thresholds congruent with good ecological status water bodies most downstream reaches. policies tackling point sources reach their maximum impact. face this approaching ceiling, sustainable management land becomes pivotal for effective control river basins. The regional approach highlighted differences across Europe that may provide tailored opportunities plan strategies achieving environmental targets.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem at high spatial resolution to inform the ecosystem-based management in the region

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 16, 2022

Cumulative pressures are rapidly expanding in the Mediterranean Sea with consequences for marine biodiversity and resources, services they provide. Policy makers urge a ecosystem assessment of region space time. This study evaluates how whole food web may have responded to historical changes climate, environment fisheries, through use an modelling over long time span (decades) at high spatial resolution (8 × 8 km), inform regional sub-regional management. Results indicate coastal shelf areas be sites highest resources biomass, which decrease towards south-eastern regions. High levels total catches discards predicted concentrated Western sub-basin Adriatic Sea. Mean spatial-temporal commercial biomass show increases offshore waters region, while indicators marginal changes. Total increase greatly Eastern sub-basins. Spatial patterns temporal mean biodiversity, community biomasses trophic indices, assessed this study, aim identifying components that signs deterioration overall goal assisting policy designing implementing management actions region.

Язык: Английский

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The overlooked impacts of freshwater scarcity on oceans as evidenced by the Mediterranean Sea

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2025

Water stress is an urgent issue in many regions worldwide, particularly southern European countries. This study reveals the consequences of decreased freshwater flow on marine ecosystems Mediterranean Sea due to climate change and escalating water demands. A 41% reduction river may result a 10% decline primary productivity 6% decrease biomass commercial fish invertebrate species. Regional reductions could be as high 12% 35%, disrupting coastal their related socio-economic sectors. The findings emphasize importance considering nutrient load changes management strategies incorporating ecosystem requirements into environmental for bodies. Integrated, source-to-sink approaches are crucial sustainable resource utilization. Freshwater demand cause strong species biomass, affecting activities.

Язык: Английский

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