Forecasting Crude Oil Consumption in Poland Based on LSTM Recurrent Neural Network

Energies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(13), С. 4885 - 4885

Опубликована: Июль 3, 2022

Primary fuels, i.e., crude oil, natural gas, and power coal, dominate the total global demand for primary energy. Among them, oil plays a particularly important role due to universality of applications practical lack substitutes in transport. Crude is also one main sources energy Poland accounts around 30% consumed. covers only 3% its needs from domestic deposits. The rest imported Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Great Britain, Kazakhstan, Norway. Due such high import raw material, must anticipate future demand. On hand, this article aims analyze current (2020) (2040) consumption on Polish market. study analyzes geopolitical economic foundations functioning raw-materials market, supply, structure Poland’s mix, assumptions about policy until 2040. other conclusions research were used build model internal It has been shown that market nonlinear phenomenon with small set statistical data, which makes it difficult an accurate model. This paper proposes new based artificial neural networks includes long-term memory (LSTM). accuracy constructed was assessed using MSE, Theil, Janus coefficients. results show LSTM models can be forecast consumption, they cope nonstationary time series. Many contemporary problems posed field economy are discussed, proposed solve them use modern machine-learning tools.

Язык: Английский

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The use of the dynamic time warping (DTW) method to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in Poland

Oeconomia Copernicana, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(3), С. 539 - 556

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2021

Research background: In recent times, the whole world has been severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The influence of epidemic on society and economy caused a great deal scientific interest. development pandemic in many countries was analyzed using various models. However, literature dissemination lacks econometric analyzes this Polish voivodeships. Purpose article: aim study is to find similarities time series for infected with those who died voivodeships method dynamic warping. Methods: warping allows calculate distance between two different lengths. This feature very important our analysis because coronavirus did not start all at same time. also enables an adjustment timeline similar, but shifted, phases. Using method, we jointly analyze number deceased people each province. next step, based measured similarity series, are grouped hierarchically. Findings & value added: We use identify groups extent. classification performed may be useful as it indicates patterns disease evolution voivodeships. results obtained regional level will allow better prediction future infections. Decision makers should formulate further recommendations lockdowns local level, long run, adjust medical infrastructure regions accordingly. Policymakers other can benefit from findings shaping their own policies

Язык: Английский

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Methodology for Calculating the Energy Security Index of the State: Taking into Account Modern Megatrends

Energies, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 14(12), С. 3621 - 3621

Опубликована: Июнь 18, 2021

Energy issue stays a top priority for the national security of most countries. Despite numerous international forums, large-scale geoeconomic research, and projects, development appropriate strategies, energy assessment understanding its terminology is not universal practice. The presented study has an ambitious goal to develop methodology that can provide objective picture sector on scale with cross-country comparisons under influence modern megatrends. Based 29 indicators, according World Bank data since 1991, index calculated set world states further analysis cluster dynamics their common trends in security. showed objectivity resistance existing shocks dynamics. An important feature proposed possibility compare 1. This value is, fact, European average: if country greater than 1, it means level currently better average, lower inferior achieved average Europe. concept calculating state based unified comparison all countries, which allows us move away from use signaling approaches eliminate subjectivity calculations, as well basis dynamic vital aspect takes into account changes paradigm, transition alternative sources, comprehension role efficiency, particular, fossil fuels. identifies clusters countries have consistent similarities security, usually be practical interest developing strategies similarity interests these states. Thus, this article contributes only scientific issues, through methodological representative index, but also presentation statistically sound results effective management decisions at level.

Язык: Английский

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ESTIMATING THE REAL SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY FROM COVID-19: THE EXAMPLE OF ELECTRICITY USE IN CHINA

Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(5), С. 1221 - 1241

Опубликована: Июнь 9, 2022

Quantifying the shock to economy from COVID-19 pandemic is difficult. Although this easily linked financial markets as a sort of monetary shock, few studies have been done on its effect real economy. This study takes particular economic perspective, focusing electricity uses in various sectors We propose novel method for comparing use 2019Q1 and 2020Q1, based which we derive degree some important COVID-19. In our theoretical framework, demand energy influencing factors are related total scale economy, i.e., gross domestic product. Using suitable empirical methods, obtain certain marginal effects then calculate corresponding ratio The between these reveals need balance stocks differences cases, plays role both differences. find that, although manufacturing consumption affected, services more vulnerable pandemic. Our findings offer implications policymakers.

Язык: Английский

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Analyzing Wind Energy Potential Using Efficient Global Optimization: A Case Study for the City Gdańsk in Poland

Energies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(9), С. 3159 - 3159

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2022

Wind energy (WE), which is one of the renewable (RE) sources for generating electricity, has been making a significant contribution to obtaining clean and green in recent years. Fitting an appropriate statistical distribution wind speed (WS) data crucial analyzing estimating WE potential. Once best suitable WS determined, potential yield could be estimated with high accuracy. The main objective this paper propose novel approach calculating For purpose, Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) technique was proposed fitting performance compared genetic algorithm (GA), simulated annealing (SA), differential evolution (DE). Performance metrics showed that EGO providing better estimations GA, SA, DE. Based on Weibull parameters obtained by using EGO, annual revenue were Gdańsk, capital Pomerania Voivodeship Poland, case having city-type turbines city center. Estimations Gdańsk might helpful producing electricity from without being limited constraints such as long distance between buildings. If erected roofs residential buildings, malls, or office there possibility part electric needed buildings generated WE. However, topic should further investigated technical financial perspectives.

Язык: Английский

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A New Approach for Risk of Corporate Bankruptcy Assessment during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Journal of risk and financial management, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 14(12), С. 590 - 590

Опубликована: Дек. 7, 2021

The consequences of COVID-19 will aggravate existing multidimensional risks and reveal new ones. research gap allows contributing to recognizing the exogenous risk factors corporate bankruptcy during pandemic in EU countries. This study aims at revealing how evaluate phenomenon times. question arises as whether Schumpeter’s creative destruction approach is still accurate. article concentrates on implementing fsQCA (fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis) method identify main drivers countries based Fragile States Index data. focuses fuzzy sets theory. a globally recognized alternative quantitative analysis (in which causal complexity ignored) qualitative methods for examining individual cases (which do not have tools generalize their basis). indicates examines external that would increase countries: namely, economic decline, uneven development, unemployment rate, demographic pressure, government debt. discusses influence zombie companies economies pandemic. Identifying determine threat may constitute practical recommendations business restructuring practitioners, financial institutions, banking public sector representatives creating warning recovery measures

Язык: Английский

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From Short-Term Risk to Long-Term Strategic Challenges: Reviewing the Consequences of Geopolitics and COVID-19 on Economic Performance

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 14(21), С. 14455 - 14455

Опубликована: Ноя. 3, 2022

The COVID-19 crisis and the war between Russia Ukraine affects world economy badly. western countries’ economic sanctions on Russian government’s reverse countries create pressure economy. This study was conducted to investigate how performance is responding geopolitical of era. In doing so, both theoretical numerical data reviews have been performed. objective short-term risks long-term strategic challenges crisis. used a bibliometric approach with help RStudio software. Web Science database for extracting resources in line grey literature from Google Search engine. A total 895 documents were utilized this analysis. At same time, secondary panel extracted international monetary fund (IMF) period 4 years (2019–2022) reviewing implications. purposive sampling technique selection main variables. findings imply that over registered less growth, high inflation rate, government debt 2022 compared fiscal 2019–2021. emerging economies developing Europe badly affected by as level rate hit 27 percent growth region negative 2.9 percent. also found rising interest rates, exchange volatility, risk stagflation, energy prices are economies. issue sustainable development goals green aspects, hyperinflation, recession or Bailout relief be necessary those Policymakers should facilitate financial policies switch general assistance targeted support viable enterprises.

Язык: Английский

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Determinants of Electrical and Thermal Energy Consumption in Hospitals According to Climate Zones in Poland

Energies, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 14(22), С. 7585 - 7585

Опубликована: Ноя. 12, 2021

Energy use in hospitals is higher than other public buildings, so improving energy efficiency healthcare buildings a significant challenge this sector of engineering. For this, it necessary to know the various determinants consumption. Until now, main factor affecting consumption facilities studied literature was hospital capacity. However, commonly used variables connected with size and number beds do not take into account medical activities carried out these buildings. Assuming that multiple shaped by many factors overlap, only on an individual level but also scale level, study devises more integrated approach its determinants. This aims investigate electrical costs (EEC) thermal (TEC) Polish regard related their size, work intensity climate zones. The analysis using financial resource data from all for years 2010–2019. multivariate backward stepwise regression analysis. In order as moderating variable, sample 16 NUTS 2 divided four article provides new empirical evidence electricity activity, taking zone variable. results show both heat are positively doctors, operations performed. As expected, larger seem energy. Moreover, there regional heterogeneity climatic which they operate. conducted shows located warmest characterized coldest zone. It especially regards EEC surgery hospitals. warmer zones, terms surgeries, EEC. nonsurgical hospitals, influence observed. Knowing influencing can facilitate correct adoption energy-saving strategy health sector, reasonable response change supports healthy sustainable future.

Язык: Английский

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Socioemotional Wealth (SEW) of Family Firms and CEO Behavioral Biases in the Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Energies, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 14(21), С. 7411 - 7411

Опубликована: Ноя. 7, 2021

Agreed upon by the UN member states, Agenda 2030 assumes joint action for long-term sustainable development. These actions are focused on implementation of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), where assumed to lead suppression negative externalities human activity. It is stressed that objectives development can only be achieved through deep institutional changes in most dimensions economy, including entrepreneurship dimension. Entrepreneurship plays a pivotal role transformation community, as related activities companies source desired structural changes. Entrepreneurial projects make biggest contribution research and development, investment new technologies, innovation. The threat firms’ aggressive corporate financial strategy, which often results from CEO overconfidence behavior. aim article indicate differences strategies regarding status company (family or non-family) characteristics (overconfident non-overconfident). fulfilment this analyzing selected EU country (Poland) found more behavior overconfident CEOs non-family firms. was also family firms fairly coherent group implement conservative strategy regardless characteristics. We state power curb its impact strategy. This means much able create contribute (SDGs) within market framework.

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of the current integration process: from the past to the future of the European Union

Eastern Journal of European Studies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(2), С. 116 - 139

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2022

Does the EU know what future they want? And does form of futureintegration process is right, appropriate or, at least, realistic one?During last decade, had been weathering a number crises, in particular, eurocrisis, migration crisis and rule law crisis.And other crises followed or are following: Brexit as an internal shock which outlined debate on direction EU, COVID-19 external health that started reform terms policies applied.Russia's attack Ukraine security shock, follows reinforces EU's reformist tendencies, especially area building independence self-sufficiency.It more than timely, necessary indispensable to ask question political leaders about ways should could move forward.It must not remain behind closed doors Brussels institutions government cabinets, but become shared project with vision.

Язык: Английский

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