Consolidating backcasting: A design framework towards a users’ guide

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 202, С. 123285 - 123285

Опубликована: Март 16, 2024

Backcasting has become a widely applied approach to address sustainability challenges when transformative changes are required. However, dispersed and contextualized knowledge of backcasting methodologies practices needs be systematized, codified, synthesized support researchers, commissioners, practitioners, stakeholders in projects. In this paper, we these issues by (i) concisely reviewing the evolution current body literature on how relates other major types futures scenario studies (ii) developing design framework for researchers practitioners that systematically covers all methodological choices with regard key guiding questions develop methodology particular project. The developed is based four parts, characterized interrogatives when, which, how, what, creating comprehensive describing study.

Язык: Английский

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From forecasts to scenarios in strategic city-regional land-use and transportation planning

Regional Studies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 57(4), С. 629 - 641

Опубликована: Май 3, 2022

The article proposes a theoretical framework for the application of four scenario-planning approaches in strategic land-use and transportation (LUT) planning, focusing on city-regions. Each approach has specific role process, with distinct mode knowing: explanation (knowing what), narration how), argumentation to what end practical judgment) instrumentalization (doing). is contrasted reflections from Finnish planning practitioners applied when reviewing scenario impact assessment process Helsinki Metropolitan Region LUT plan. highlights key explorative city-regional planning.

Язык: Английский

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Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Futures & Foresight Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 15, 2022

Abstract Designing backcasting scenarios is a powerful approach to the development of sustainable visions and pathways for governments or enterprises in early stage their policy‐making strategic decision‐making process. To date, number scholars have proposed various methods, which workshops are often used reflect voices stakeholders. However, it still challenge test validity because process designing not transparent shared among involved This also prevents reusing knowledge intermediate outputs generated during scenario design solve these problems, this paper aims develop method supporting by introducing computational assistance. A support system called society (3S) simulator visualize scenario's logical sequence graph format. demonstrate method, case study city Toyama, Japanese municipality, was performed using three with citizen participation. The results showed that two different scenarios, involving future associated pathways, were developed reflecting diversified values local citizens. usage 3S visualized relations described consist five blocks—problem definition, subgoals achieve visions, measures attain subgoals, verification, conclusions. visualization effective increase verifiability reusability evidence‐based processes.

Язык: Английский

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Designing Technology Diffusion Roadmaps of Thermoelectric Generators Toward a Carbon-Neutral Society

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 71, С. 392 - 399

Опубликована: Ноя. 19, 2021

Thermoelectric generators (TEGs) have the potential to contribute significantly realization of a carbon-neutral society by recovering electrical energy from various types waste heat. Potential applications include wireless sensors, automobiles, and wearable devices. Despite their promise, however, TEGs not been widely diffused due currently high cost low conversion efficiency. This article aims design technology diffusion roadmaps in order clarify gap between market needs technological development, discusses ways bridge this gap. Drawing on backcasting-based roadmap method developed previously authors, TEG were prototyped using online interviews with two companies that are developing marketing own for specific applications. Based responses, process consisting five steps—problem setting, preparation, information gathering, structuring analyzing results, feedback—was developed. To demonstrate proposed method, case study which digital platforms tools utilized efficiently exploit knowledge opinions participating experts was conducted online. Results revealed pathway could be effectively meet both social over next 30 years. Internet Things sensors automobiles identified as promising near term, while, longer need develop new solutions surrounding technologies expand future demand made evident.

Язык: Английский

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The School of Today and Tomorrow through the Eyes of High School Students

Voprosy Obrazovaniya/ Educational Studies Moscow, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 2, С. 155 - 189

Опубликована: Июль 6, 2022

The article dwells on the image of modern and future school in context system values outlook life Russian high students 9-11 grades. empirical basis study is analysis answers from 46 schools St. Petersburg to questions posed during foresight sessions September-December 2021 within project “Your Budget at Schools 2021”. includes a detailed consideration through eyes Petersburg, as well interpretation this terms its relationship with youth. main conclusions are that importance such elements “adult skills”, “computer competence”, “efficient communication “self-development self-improvement”, “collaboration “readiness extracurricular activities” has increased structure image. On contrary, “general literacy”, “working information”, “school subject results”, work earn living” goes down. Comfort, practical skills for adult life, self-development, efficient communication, health, recreation become keywords describing desired “future” school. In our opinion, “future school” minds reflects primarily their urgent need having comfortable spaces active learning activities. At same time, rise project-based importance, involvement young people into social design processes provide good opportunities use these development socially useful activities (at least local community level), which educational civil impact.

Язык: Английский

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Foresight of teachers’ professional challenges

The Education and science journal, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 24(6), С. 60 - 83

Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2022

Introduction. The search for new tools, methods of research and forecasting teachers’ professional challenges is conditioned by the development Russian education system tasks to develop competencies. This article presents a solution predicting faced teachers in regional using foresight methods. Aim. current aims predict activity, considering uncertainty formation their Methodology methodology was chosen as methodological basis challenges. first experience technological presented B. R. Martin, developed different countries, spheres industry systems (M. Hilbert, Y. Kishita, I. Miles, J. Othmer, C. Reimers-Hild, A. Magruk, etc.), has found its application (A. Havas, V. Munigala, Rong, Sánchez-Torres M., Sjodin, Yaver, etc.) modern studies competencies Rieckmann, L. M. Andriukhina, E. F. Zeer, Kononyuk, Kurneshova, P. Smorchkova, etc.). implementation study Krasnoyarsk Territory. prototype tools materials Finland. In course study, 241 individual interviews were conducted with representatives various stakeholders – students pedagogical university, parents. most active part largest share (77%), future (15%) parents (8%). Results. As result it that main challenge will be lack skills apply necessary techniques technologies. From point view, time changes. view teachers, desire motivation on finance provision, equipment, resources. parents, difficulty remain excessive bureaucratisation learning process. opinion, well competency technologies, are teachers. Scientific novelty. aimed at solving issues choosing adapting conditions participants. promotes possibility expanding range considers limitations spread technologies Russia. demonstrated assessment challenges, which contributes Practical significance. received forecast about provide support adjust existing teaching staff lay foundation monitoring.

Язык: Английский

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Functions of a professional brand-building foresight technology in modelling the competitiveness of university graduates in the labour market

The Education and science journal, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 23(9), С. 11 - 45

Опубликована: Ноя. 12, 2021

Introduction. The emergence of social, political and economic processes in the modern world leads to development innovative educational technologies, among which researchers’ attention is drawn a professional brand-building foresight technology. technology system principles, methods techniques for expert analysis current achievements students, young professionals anyone who seeks self-improvement. Moreover, this training includes programmes optimise personal self-development an individual terms his/her possible career growth. aim research was justify developed by authors, check effectiveness its application formation competencies future specialist process higher education. Methodology methods. theoretical methodological strategy study competency-based approach, contributes competencies. conceptual provisions implemented complex brand-forming tools single trajectory order model design brand relation strategic goals specialist, became practice-oriented tactic. authors used following general scientific specific methods: questionnaire survey based on random systematic (mechanical) sampling, in-depth interview, survey, document analysis, self-assessment readiness brand-building. Results. presented technology, essence lies path. Its structure four programmes: self-marketing, branding, case road map success. As result training, are developed. approbation experiment demonstrated that without special these formed spontaneously. Based results conducted surveys, analysed level interest as factor self-development. A university graduates revealed dependence employment teaching interviews held with Russian Latvian teachers determined employers’ opinions showed reasons hinder successful specialists. In addition, lack knowledge non-systematic limited nature universities. Scientific novelty replenishment interdisciplinary (at intersection pedagogy, building, forecasting, studies) about methodology. emphasis innovativeness competitiveness increases their chances Practical significance. can be useful developing ideas development, brand-building, foresighting. materials employed students education institutions, heads systems organisation process, well various specialists practitioners.

Язык: Английский

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Experimentation of Integrating Roadmapping and Sci-Fi Prototyping Methods

2022 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Год журнала: 2024, Номер 71, С. 1 - 8

Опубликована: Авг. 4, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Managing the Development of Integration Processes in the Innovation Environment of the Region

Proceedings of the Southwest State University Series Economics Sociology and Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(3), С. 101 - 117

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2023

Relevance . Integration processes form the modern image of innovative model economy through successful functioning and competent interrelation structural elements innovation system at national regional levels. The control levers such systems should be effective, therefore sufficiently diverse flexible, so as not to limit system, but ensure its development in conditions singularity external environment. A new approach study problems region can offered by theory with an emphasis on a understanding complex self-organizing structures, well concept open innovation, which allows participants process establish partnerships based knowledge exchange. purpose is find solution problem managing integration environment region. objectives formulated follows: identification territory; theoretical constructions region; justification for formation interaction stakeholders «Quadruple Innovation Helix». Methodology research methodology consists general scientific methods cognition, statistical methods, principles systematic approach. Results One important territory low level that stakeholders. dynamic proposed. This reveals balancing from perspective taking into account interests process. Conclusions use proposed comprehensive possibilities effective observance balance synergy result evaluation

Язык: Английский

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Innovative Strategizing for Sustainable Development: Russian Patterns

Strategizing Theory and Practice, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 403 - 415

Опубликована: Ноя. 28, 2023

The current domestic strategizing practice needs significant improvements. On the one hand, innovative strategies should factor in extreme variability of external environment. other they address long-term trends and goals, e.g., climate change, low-carbon economy, etc. This research featured industrial Russian economy. In spite rapid changes postulated by concepts VUCA BANI, proper can support effective transformations companies industries cascading synchronizing different economic policies. Most state-approved provide an in-depth situation analysis problem definition but, being aimed at solving problems, lack a vision. As result, turn into catch-up development that are unable to form leading positions future. goal any strategy is develop existing competencies, competitive advantages, resource opportunities order attract additional resources create new advantages. Initially, be limited minimum allowable investment level interaction between business, science, state, special zones, clusters, digital platforms, resulting horizontal connections protect system from changing

Язык: Английский

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