Вступительный материал приглашенного редактора обозначает контекстуальные и теоретические основы методологии Форсайт-исследований. Продемонстрирован вклад статей специального выпуска в решение актуальных задач развития данной методологии. Намечены направления дальнейших исследований для ответа на вопросы, которые пока остаются нерешенными.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
202, С. 123285 - 123285
Опубликована: Март 16, 2024
Backcasting
has
become
a
widely
applied
approach
to
address
sustainability
challenges
when
transformative
changes
are
required.
However,
dispersed
and
contextualized
knowledge
of
backcasting
methodologies
practices
needs
be
systematized,
codified,
synthesized
support
researchers,
commissioners,
practitioners,
stakeholders
in
projects.
In
this
paper,
we
these
issues
by
(i)
concisely
reviewing
the
evolution
current
body
literature
on
how
relates
other
major
types
futures
scenario
studies
(ii)
developing
design
framework
for
researchers
practitioners
that
systematically
covers
all
methodological
choices
with
regard
key
guiding
questions
develop
methodology
particular
project.
The
developed
is
based
four
parts,
characterized
interrogatives
when,
which,
how,
what,
creating
comprehensive
describing
study.
Regional Studies,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
57(4), С. 629 - 641
Опубликована: Май 3, 2022
The
article
proposes
a
theoretical
framework
for
the
application
of
four
scenario-planning
approaches
in
strategic
land-use
and
transportation
(LUT)
planning,
focusing
on
city-regions.
Each
approach
has
specific
role
process,
with
distinct
mode
knowing:
explanation
(knowing
what),
narration
how),
argumentation
to
what
end
practical
judgment)
instrumentalization
(doing).
is
contrasted
reflections
from
Finnish
planning
practitioners
applied
when
reviewing
scenario
impact
assessment
process
Helsinki
Metropolitan
Region
LUT
plan.
highlights
key
explorative
city-regional
planning.
Futures & Foresight Science,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
5(1)
Опубликована: Сен. 15, 2022
Abstract
Designing
backcasting
scenarios
is
a
powerful
approach
to
the
development
of
sustainable
visions
and
pathways
for
governments
or
enterprises
in
early
stage
their
policy‐making
strategic
decision‐making
process.
To
date,
number
scholars
have
proposed
various
methods,
which
workshops
are
often
used
reflect
voices
stakeholders.
However,
it
still
challenge
test
validity
because
process
designing
not
transparent
shared
among
involved
This
also
prevents
reusing
knowledge
intermediate
outputs
generated
during
scenario
design
solve
these
problems,
this
paper
aims
develop
method
supporting
by
introducing
computational
assistance.
A
support
system
called
society
(3S)
simulator
visualize
scenario's
logical
sequence
graph
format.
demonstrate
method,
case
study
city
Toyama,
Japanese
municipality,
was
performed
using
three
with
citizen
participation.
The
results
showed
that
two
different
scenarios,
involving
future
associated
pathways,
were
developed
reflecting
diversified
values
local
citizens.
usage
3S
visualized
relations
described
consist
five
blocks—problem
definition,
subgoals
achieve
visions,
measures
attain
subgoals,
verification,
conclusions.
visualization
effective
increase
verifiability
reusability
evidence‐based
processes.
Voprosy Obrazovaniya/ Educational Studies Moscow,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
2, С. 155 - 189
Опубликована: Июль 6, 2022
The
article
dwells
on
the
image
of
modern
and
future
school
in
context
system
values
outlook
life
Russian
high
students
9-11
grades.
empirical
basis
study
is
analysis
answers
from
46
schools
St.
Petersburg
to
questions
posed
during
foresight
sessions
September-December
2021
within
project
“Your
Budget
at
Schools
2021”.
includes
a
detailed
consideration
through
eyes
Petersburg,
as
well
interpretation
this
terms
its
relationship
with
youth.
main
conclusions
are
that
importance
such
elements
“adult
skills”,
“computer
competence”,
“efficient
communication
“self-development
self-improvement”,
“collaboration
“readiness
extracurricular
activities”
has
increased
structure
image.
On
contrary,
“general
literacy”,
“working
information”,
“school
subject
results”,
work
earn
living”
goes
down.
Comfort,
practical
skills
for
adult
life,
self-development,
efficient
communication,
health,
recreation
become
keywords
describing
desired
“future”
school.
In
our
opinion,
“future
school”
minds
reflects
primarily
their
urgent
need
having
comfortable
spaces
active
learning
activities.
At
same
time,
rise
project-based
importance,
involvement
young
people
into
social
design
processes
provide
good
opportunities
use
these
development
socially
useful
activities
(at
least
local
community
level),
which
educational
civil
impact.
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
71, С. 392 - 399
Опубликована: Ноя. 19, 2021
Thermoelectric
generators
(TEGs)
have
the
potential
to
contribute
significantly
realization
of
a
carbon-neutral
society
by
recovering
electrical
energy
from
various
types
waste
heat.
Potential
applications
include
wireless
sensors,
automobiles,
and
wearable
devices.
Despite
their
promise,
however,
TEGs
not
been
widely
diffused
due
currently
high
cost
low
conversion
efficiency.
This
article
aims
design
technology
diffusion
roadmaps
in
order
clarify
gap
between
market
needs
technological
development,
discusses
ways
bridge
this
gap.
Drawing
on
backcasting-based
roadmap
method
developed
previously
authors,
TEG
were
prototyped
using
online
interviews
with
two
companies
that
are
developing
marketing
own
for
specific
applications.
Based
responses,
process
consisting
five
steps—problem
setting,
preparation,
information
gathering,
structuring
analyzing
results,
feedback—was
developed.
To
demonstrate
proposed
method,
case
study
which
digital
platforms
tools
utilized
efficiently
exploit
knowledge
opinions
participating
experts
was
conducted
online.
Results
revealed
pathway
could
be
effectively
meet
both
social
over
next
30
years.
Internet
Things
sensors
automobiles
identified
as
promising
near
term,
while,
longer
need
develop
new
solutions
surrounding
technologies
expand
future
demand
made
evident.
The Education and science journal,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
24(6), С. 60 - 83
Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2022
Introduction.
The
search
for
new
tools,
methods
of
research
and
forecasting
teachers’
professional
challenges
is
conditioned
by
the
development
Russian
education
system
tasks
to
develop
competencies.
This
article
presents
a
solution
predicting
faced
teachers
in
regional
using
foresight
methods.
Aim.
current
aims
predict
activity,
considering
uncertainty
formation
their
Methodology
methodology
was
chosen
as
methodological
basis
challenges.
first
experience
technological
presented
B.
R.
Martin,
developed
different
countries,
spheres
industry
systems
(M.
Hilbert,
Y.
Kishita,
I.
Miles,
J.
Othmer,
C.
Reimers-Hild,
A.
Magruk,
etc.),
has
found
its
application
(A.
Havas,
V.
Munigala,
Rong,
Sánchez-Torres
M.,
Sjodin,
Yaver,
etc.)
modern
studies
competencies
Rieckmann,
L.
M.
Andriukhina,
E.
F.
Zeer,
Kononyuk,
Kurneshova,
P.
Smorchkova,
etc.).
implementation
study
Krasnoyarsk
Territory.
prototype
tools
materials
Finland.
In
course
study,
241
individual
interviews
were
conducted
with
representatives
various
stakeholders
–
students
pedagogical
university,
parents.
most
active
part
largest
share
(77%),
future
(15%)
parents
(8%).
Results.
As
result
it
that
main
challenge
will
be
lack
skills
apply
necessary
techniques
technologies.
From
point
view,
time
changes.
view
teachers,
desire
motivation
on
finance
provision,
equipment,
resources.
parents,
difficulty
remain
excessive
bureaucratisation
learning
process.
opinion,
well
competency
technologies,
are
teachers.
Scientific
novelty.
aimed
at
solving
issues
choosing
adapting
conditions
participants.
promotes
possibility
expanding
range
considers
limitations
spread
technologies
Russia.
demonstrated
assessment
challenges,
which
contributes
Practical
significance.
received
forecast
about
provide
support
adjust
existing
teaching
staff
lay
foundation
monitoring.
The Education and science journal,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
23(9), С. 11 - 45
Опубликована: Ноя. 12, 2021
Introduction.
The
emergence
of
social,
political
and
economic
processes
in
the
modern
world
leads
to
development
innovative
educational
technologies,
among
which
researchers’
attention
is
drawn
a
professional
brand-building
foresight
technology.
technology
system
principles,
methods
techniques
for
expert
analysis
current
achievements
students,
young
professionals
anyone
who
seeks
self-improvement.
Moreover,
this
training
includes
programmes
optimise
personal
self-development
an
individual
terms
his/her
possible
career
growth.
aim
research
was
justify
developed
by
authors,
check
effectiveness
its
application
formation
competencies
future
specialist
process
higher
education.
Methodology
methods.
theoretical
methodological
strategy
study
competency-based
approach,
contributes
competencies.
conceptual
provisions
implemented
complex
brand-forming
tools
single
trajectory
order
model
design
brand
relation
strategic
goals
specialist,
became
practice-oriented
tactic.
authors
used
following
general
scientific
specific
methods:
questionnaire
survey
based
on
random
systematic
(mechanical)
sampling,
in-depth
interview,
survey,
document
analysis,
self-assessment
readiness
brand-building.
Results.
presented
technology,
essence
lies
path.
Its
structure
four
programmes:
self-marketing,
branding,
case
road
map
success.
As
result
training,
are
developed.
approbation
experiment
demonstrated
that
without
special
these
formed
spontaneously.
Based
results
conducted
surveys,
analysed
level
interest
as
factor
self-development.
A
university
graduates
revealed
dependence
employment
teaching
interviews
held
with
Russian
Latvian
teachers
determined
employers’
opinions
showed
reasons
hinder
successful
specialists.
In
addition,
lack
knowledge
non-systematic
limited
nature
universities.
Scientific
novelty
replenishment
interdisciplinary
(at
intersection
pedagogy,
building,
forecasting,
studies)
about
methodology.
emphasis
innovativeness
competitiveness
increases
their
chances
Practical
significance.
can
be
useful
developing
ideas
development,
brand-building,
foresighting.
materials
employed
students
education
institutions,
heads
systems
organisation
process,
well
various
specialists
practitioners.
Proceedings of the Southwest State University Series Economics Sociology and Management,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
13(3), С. 101 - 117
Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2023
Relevance
.
Integration
processes
form
the
modern
image
of
innovative
model
economy
through
successful
functioning
and
competent
interrelation
structural
elements
innovation
system
at
national
regional
levels.
The
control
levers
such
systems
should
be
effective,
therefore
sufficiently
diverse
flexible,
so
as
not
to
limit
system,
but
ensure
its
development
in
conditions
singularity
external
environment.
A
new
approach
study
problems
region
can
offered
by
theory
with
an
emphasis
on
a
understanding
complex
self-organizing
structures,
well
concept
open
innovation,
which
allows
participants
process
establish
partnerships
based
knowledge
exchange.
purpose
is
find
solution
problem
managing
integration
environment
region.
objectives
formulated
follows:
identification
territory;
theoretical
constructions
region;
justification
for
formation
interaction
stakeholders
«Quadruple
Innovation
Helix».
Methodology
research
methodology
consists
general
scientific
methods
cognition,
statistical
methods,
principles
systematic
approach.
Results
One
important
territory
low
level
that
stakeholders.
dynamic
proposed.
This
reveals
balancing
from
perspective
taking
into
account
interests
process.
Conclusions
use
proposed
comprehensive
possibilities
effective
observance
balance
synergy
result
evaluation