The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I Initiative: Description and Highlight Results from the Initial Analysis

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 103(2), С. E293 - E310

Опубликована: Окт. 4, 2021

Abstract We describe the first effort within Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Coordinated Output for Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set twenty-first-century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global model (GCM) simulations from CMIP5 program, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over nine CORDEX domains at ∼25-km grid spacing. Illustrative examples initial analysis this ensemble are presented, covering wide range topics, such as added value RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence change signals, energy production. They show that EXP-I can provide downscaled information unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding processes relevant impacts, assess RCMs. The dataset, which will be incrementally augmented new simulations, is intended public resource available scientific end-user communities application process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, service activities. future initiative also discussed.

Язык: Английский

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A severe landslide event in the Alpine foreland under possible future climate and land-use changes

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 3(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2022

Abstract Landslides are a major natural hazard, but uncertainties about their occurrence in warmer climate substantial. The relative role of rainfall, soil moisture, and land-use changes the importance change mitigation not well understood. Here, we develop an event storyline approach to address these issues, considering observed Austria with some 3000 landslides as showcase. We simulate using convection permitting regional model statistical landslide at present range plausible future land use conditions. Depending on rainfall area affected during 2009-type could grow by 45% 4 K global warming, although slight reduction is also possible. Such growth be reduced less than 10% limiting warming according Paris agreement. Anticipated towards climate-resilient forest would fully compensate for such limited increase hazard.

Язык: Английский

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Update of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change: a review

Water Science & Technology Water Supply, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 22(5), С. 4951 - 4974

Опубликована: Март 30, 2022

Abstract Land use and land cover changes, population growth, urban sprawl climate change are expected to augment the pressure on natural environment existing infrastructure. As a result, update of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves considering is essential for adaptation water-related structures change. The present work reviews main challenges regarding IDF A wide literature search was conducted in scientific databases. More than 100 articles published between 2001 2021 have been reviewed summarized discussed. aims were to: (i) identify state-of-the-art approaches curve under projections; (ii) assess whether or not these incorporate uncertainty (i.e., related models, statistical downscaling techniques, temporal resolution data, theoretical distribution selection etc.); (iii) propose general guidelines updating based projections. First, motivation presented that makes renewal global issue. Second, current practices described impacts short precipitation extremes around world briefly Finally, limitations future research needs

Язык: Английский

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Potential and limitations of convection‐permitting CNRM‐AROME climate modelling in the French Alps

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 42(14), С. 7162 - 7185

Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2022

Abstract Convection‐permitting climate modelling is a promising avenue for change research and services especially in mountainous regions. Work required to evaluate the results of high‐resolution simulations against relevant observations, put them broader context coarser resolution frameworks. Here we numerical with convection‐permitting regional model CNRM‐AROME ran at 2.5 km horizontal over large pan‐Alpine domain European Alps, using either ERA‐Interim or output as boundary conditions. This study analyses annual seasonal characteristics 2 m temperature, total precipitation, solid fraction precipitation snow depth scale French Alps under past future The are compared local reanalysis S2M, raw adjusted, ADAMONT method, CNRM‐ALADIN driven by CNRM‐CM5 global model. highlights generally similar differences between datasets, well obstacles use some outputs they stand. These consist excessive accumulation on ground above 1,800 a.s.l., lower temperature values same elevations than S2M ADAMONT‐adjusted outputs. Besides these obstacles, present several advantages Among them, significantly smaller cold bias, more realistic accumulated precipitations, better representation spatial variability different variables investigated, which always stand closer reference data As suggested many studies, could even produce precipitations high elevation taken our consequently projections, but lack reliable set observations remains an obstacle their evaluation.

Язык: Английский

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Climate Scenarios for Switzerland CH2018 – Approach and Implications

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 26, С. 100288 - 100288

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2022

To make sound decisions in the face of climate change, government agencies, policymakers and private stakeholders require suitable information on local to regional scales. In Switzerland, development change scenarios is strongly linked adaptation strategy Confederation. The current for Switzerland CH2018 - released form six user-oriented products were result an intensive collaboration between academia administration under umbrella National Centre Climate Services (NCCS), accounting user needs stakeholder dialogues from beginning. A rigorous scientific concept ensured consistency throughout various analysis steps EURO-CORDEX projections a common procedure how extract robust results deal with associated uncertainties. main show that Switzerland's will dry summers, heavy precipitation, more hot days snow-scarce winters. Approximately half these changes could be alleviated by mid-century through strong global mitigation efforts. comprehensive communication rolled out distilled specific measures increase their uptake them actionable. narrative approach four fictitious persons was used communicate key messages general public. Three years after release, have proven indispensable basis users downstream applications. Potential extensions updates has been identified since then shape planning next scenario generation Switzerland.

Язык: Английский

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The Fifth Generation Regional Climate Modeling System, RegCM5: Description and Illustrative Examples at Parameterized Convection and Convection‐Permitting Resolutions

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 128(6)

Опубликована: Март 14, 2023

Abstract We introduce the latest version of RegCM regional climate modeling system, RegCM5. Compared to previous model (RegCM4) main new development is inclusion non‐hydrostatic dynamical core from weather prediction MOLOCH, which more accurate and much computationally stable efficient than one. In particular, best designed for use at convection‐permitting resolutions a few km. Several physics schemes coupled components have also been upgraded compared model. A set test simulations present day conditions parameterized convection permitting over different European domains presented illustrative purposes. Overall, these RegCM5 exhibits better performance RegCM4 majority statistics analyzed, especially resolutions. However, this depends on used, further optimization work under way fully in settings reduce current biases. freely available, efficient, flexible, portable Regional Earth System community use, so that prospective users are welcome access its code it applications.

Язык: Английский

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The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(10)

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2023

Abstract Single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present CMIP6 version of Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) with currently 30 realizations for historical period five emission scenarios. The power MPI‐GE goes beyond its predecessor ensemble by providing high‐frequency output, full range scenarios including highly policy‐relevant low SSP1‐1.9 SSP1‐2.6, opportunity compare complementary high‐resolution simulations. First, describe CMIP6, evaluate it observations reanalyzes MPI‐GE. Then, demonstrate six application examples how use better understand future extremes, inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement warming limits, combine artificial intelligence. For instance, allows us show that recently observed Siberian Pacific North American heatwaves would only avoid reaching 1–2 years return periods 2071–2100 scenarios, European precipitation extremes captured simulations, 3‐hourly output projects a decreasing activity storms mid‐latitude oceans. Further, is ideal estimates probabilities crossing limits irreducible introduced sufficiently be used infilling surface temperature

Язык: Английский

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How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 27(5), С. 1133 - 1149

Опубликована: Март 15, 2023

Abstract. Estimating future short-duration extreme precipitation in mountainous regions is fundamental for risk management. High-resolution convection-permitting models (CPMs) represent the state of art these projections, as they resolve convective processes that are key to extremes. Recent observational studies reported a decrease intensity hourly with elevation. This “reverse orographic effect” could be related which subgrid even CPMs. To quantify reliability projections regions, it thus crucial understand what extent CPMs can reproduce this effect. Due computational demands however, CPM simulations still too short analyzing extremes using conventional methods. We use non-asymptotic statistical approach (Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value: SMEV) analysis from time periods, such ones simulations. analyze an ERA-Interim-driven Consortium Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO-crCLIM, convection-resolving Climate Modelling) simulation (2000–2009; 2.2 km resolution), and we 174 rain gauges orographically complex area northeastern Italy benchmark. investigate ability model simulate effect on extremes, compared data. focus high 20-year return levels. While overall good agreement at daily duration, tends increasingly overestimate increasing elevation, implying reverse not fully captured. These findings suggest bias-correction approaches should account orography. SMEV's capability estimating reliable rare periods promises further applications short-time-period ensembles.

Язык: Английский

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Multi-decadal analysis of past winter temperature, precipitation and snow cover data in the European Alps from reanalyses, climate models and observational datasets

˜The œcryosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 17(8), С. 3617 - 3660

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2023

Abstract. Assessing past distributions, variability and trends in the mountain snow cover its first-order drivers, temperature precipitation, is key for a wide range of studies applications. In this study, we compare results various modeling systems (global regional reanalyses ERA5, ERA5-Land, ERA5-Crocus, CERRA-Land, UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX MTMSI climate model simulations CNRM-ALADIN CNRM-AROME driven by global reanalysis ERA-Interim) against observational references (in situ, gridded datasets satellite observations) across European Alps from 1950 to 2020. The comparisons are performed terms monthly seasonal variables (snow depth duration) their main atmospherical drivers (near-surface precipitation). We assess multi-annual averages subregional mean values, interannual variations, over timescales, mainly winter period (from November through April). MESCAN-SURFEX, CERRA-Land offer satisfying description evolution. However, spatial comparison observation indicates that all overestimate duration, especially melt-out date. ERA5-Land exhibit an overestimation accumulation during winter, increasing with elevations. analysis dynamics remains complex multiple scales none models evaluated here fully succeed reproduce compared reference datasets. Indeed, while most outputs perform well at representing multi-decadal precipitation variability, they often fail address duration. discuss several artifacts potentially responsible incorrect long-term products (ERA5 MESCAN-SURFEX), which attribute primarily heterogeneities assimilated. Nevertheless, many considered study line current state knowledge. Based on these datasets, last 50 years (1968–2017) scale, have experienced warming 0.3 0.4 ∘C per decade, stronger lower elevations, small reduction homogeneous elevation. decline duration ranges −7 % −15 decade −5 d respectively, both showing larger decrease low intermediate Overall, show no strategy outperforms others within our sample upstream choices (horizontal resolution, heterogeneity observations used data assimilation reanalyses, coupling between surface atmosphere, level complexity, configuration scheme, etc.) great consequences quality potential use. Despite limitations, cases can be characterize features

Язык: Английский

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Identifying Robust Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Japan From Large Ensemble 5‐km‐Grid Regional Experiments for 4K Warming Scenario

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 128(18)

Опубликована: Сен. 19, 2023

Abstract To evaluate the impacts of global warming on local‐scale extreme precipitation in Japan, 720‐year ensemble dynamical downscaling is conducted by a regional climate model with 5 km grid spacing. Our based large data set called database for Policy Decision making Future change (d4PDF). Comparing historical and 4K climates, annual maximum daily hourly are enhanced over Japan due to warming. The increasing rate larger coast Pacific Ocean eastern western northern parts Japan. periods which increases each region depend movement Baiu front number typhoons from June through September. 50‐year return value 24‐hr land within 500 typhoon center 960 mm/24hr experiment. This 1.87 times than that 20 future increase related 1.30 relative present values experiments. quasi‐stationary band‐shaped system, senjo‐kousuitai Japanese, sometimes brings heavy well reproduced experiments shows frequency intensity under condition. study also discusses application our hydrological fields.

Язык: Английский

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