Geoscientific model development,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
14(12), С. 7705 - 7723
Опубликована: Дек. 21, 2021
Abstract.
We
describe
the
development
of
a
non-hydrostatic
version
regional
climate
model
RegCM4,
called
RegCM4-NH,
for
use
at
convection-permitting
resolutions.
The
dynamical
core
Mesoscale
Model
MM5
is
introduced
in
with
some
modifications
to
increase
stability
and
applicability
long-term
simulations.
Newly
available
explicit
microphysics
schemes
are
also
described,
three
case
studies
intense
convection
events
carried
out
order
illustrate
performance
model.
They
all
run
grid
spacing
3
km
over
domains
northern
California,
Texas
Lake
Victoria
region,
without
parameterized
cumulus
convection.
A
substantial
improvement
found
several
aspects
simulations
compared
corresponding
coarser-resolution
(12
km)
runs
completed
hydrostatic
employing
RegCM4-NH
currently
being
used
different
projects
resolutions
intended
be
resource
users
RegCM
modeling
system.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
103(2), С. E293 - E310
Опубликована: Окт. 4, 2021
Abstract
We
describe
the
first
effort
within
Coordinated
Regional
Climate
Downscaling
Experiment–Coordinated
Output
for
Evaluation,
or
CORDEX-CORE
EXP-I.
It
consists
of
a
set
twenty-first-century
projections
with
two
regional
climate
models
(RCMs)
downscaling
three
global
model
(GCM)
simulations
from
CMIP5
program,
greenhouse
gas
concentration
pathways
(RCP8.5
and
RCP2.6),
over
nine
CORDEX
domains
at
∼25-km
grid
spacing.
Illustrative
examples
initial
analysis
this
ensemble
are
presented,
covering
wide
range
topics,
such
as
added
value
RCM
nesting,
extreme
indices,
tropical
extratropical
storms,
monsoons,
ENSO,
severe
storm
environments,
emergence
change
signals,
energy
production.
They
show
that
EXP-I
can
provide
downscaled
information
unprecedented
comprehensiveness
to
increase
understanding
processes
relevant
impacts,
assess
RCMs.
The
dataset,
which
will
be
incrementally
augmented
new
simulations,
is
intended
public
resource
available
scientific
end-user
communities
application
process
studies,
impacts
on
different
socioeconomic
sectors,
service
activities.
future
initiative
also
discussed.
Communications Earth & Environment,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
3(1)
Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2022
Abstract
Landslides
are
a
major
natural
hazard,
but
uncertainties
about
their
occurrence
in
warmer
climate
substantial.
The
relative
role
of
rainfall,
soil
moisture,
and
land-use
changes
the
importance
change
mitigation
not
well
understood.
Here,
we
develop
an
event
storyline
approach
to
address
these
issues,
considering
observed
Austria
with
some
3000
landslides
as
showcase.
We
simulate
using
convection
permitting
regional
model
statistical
landslide
at
present
range
plausible
future
land
use
conditions.
Depending
on
rainfall
area
affected
during
2009-type
could
grow
by
45%
4
K
global
warming,
although
slight
reduction
is
also
possible.
Such
growth
be
reduced
less
than
10%
limiting
warming
according
Paris
agreement.
Anticipated
towards
climate-resilient
forest
would
fully
compensate
for
such
limited
increase
hazard.
Water Science & Technology Water Supply,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
22(5), С. 4951 - 4974
Опубликована: Март 30, 2022
Abstract
Land
use
and
land
cover
changes,
population
growth,
urban
sprawl
climate
change
are
expected
to
augment
the
pressure
on
natural
environment
existing
infrastructure.
As
a
result,
update
of
intensity-duration-frequency
(IDF)
curves
considering
is
essential
for
adaptation
water-related
structures
change.
The
present
work
reviews
main
challenges
regarding
IDF
A
wide
literature
search
was
conducted
in
scientific
databases.
More
than
100
articles
published
between
2001
2021
have
been
reviewed
summarized
discussed.
aims
were
to:
(i)
identify
state-of-the-art
approaches
curve
under
projections;
(ii)
assess
whether
or
not
these
incorporate
uncertainty
(i.e.,
related
models,
statistical
downscaling
techniques,
temporal
resolution
data,
theoretical
distribution
selection
etc.);
(iii)
propose
general
guidelines
updating
based
projections.
First,
motivation
presented
that
makes
renewal
global
issue.
Second,
current
practices
described
impacts
short
precipitation
extremes
around
world
briefly
Finally,
limitations
future
research
needs
Climate Services,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
26, С. 100288 - 100288
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2022
To
make
sound
decisions
in
the
face
of
climate
change,
government
agencies,
policymakers
and
private
stakeholders
require
suitable
information
on
local
to
regional
scales.
In
Switzerland,
development
change
scenarios
is
strongly
linked
adaptation
strategy
Confederation.
The
current
for
Switzerland
CH2018
-
released
form
six
user-oriented
products
were
result
an
intensive
collaboration
between
academia
administration
under
umbrella
National
Centre
Climate
Services
(NCCS),
accounting
user
needs
stakeholder
dialogues
from
beginning.
A
rigorous
scientific
concept
ensured
consistency
throughout
various
analysis
steps
EURO-CORDEX
projections
a
common
procedure
how
extract
robust
results
deal
with
associated
uncertainties.
main
show
that
Switzerland's
will
dry
summers,
heavy
precipitation,
more
hot
days
snow-scarce
winters.
Approximately
half
these
changes
could
be
alleviated
by
mid-century
through
strong
global
mitigation
efforts.
comprehensive
communication
rolled
out
distilled
specific
measures
increase
their
uptake
them
actionable.
narrative
approach
four
fictitious
persons
was
used
communicate
key
messages
general
public.
Three
years
after
release,
have
proven
indispensable
basis
users
downstream
applications.
Potential
extensions
updates
has
been
identified
since
then
shape
planning
next
scenario
generation
Switzerland.
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
42(14), С. 7162 - 7185
Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2022
Abstract
Convection‐permitting
climate
modelling
is
a
promising
avenue
for
change
research
and
services
especially
in
mountainous
regions.
Work
required
to
evaluate
the
results
of
high‐resolution
simulations
against
relevant
observations,
put
them
broader
context
coarser
resolution
frameworks.
Here
we
numerical
with
convection‐permitting
regional
model
CNRM‐AROME
ran
at
2.5
km
horizontal
over
large
pan‐Alpine
domain
European
Alps,
using
either
ERA‐Interim
or
output
as
boundary
conditions.
This
study
analyses
annual
seasonal
characteristics
2
m
temperature,
total
precipitation,
solid
fraction
precipitation
snow
depth
scale
French
Alps
under
past
future
The
are
compared
local
reanalysis
S2M,
raw
adjusted,
ADAMONT
method,
CNRM‐ALADIN
driven
by
CNRM‐CM5
global
model.
highlights
generally
similar
differences
between
datasets,
well
obstacles
use
some
outputs
they
stand.
These
consist
excessive
accumulation
on
ground
above
1,800
a.s.l.,
lower
temperature
values
same
elevations
than
S2M
ADAMONT‐adjusted
outputs.
Besides
these
obstacles,
present
several
advantages
Among
them,
significantly
smaller
cold
bias,
more
realistic
accumulated
precipitations,
better
representation
spatial
variability
different
variables
investigated,
which
always
stand
closer
reference
data
As
suggested
many
studies,
could
even
produce
precipitations
high
elevation
taken
our
consequently
projections,
but
lack
reliable
set
observations
remains
an
obstacle
their
evaluation.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
128(6)
Опубликована: Март 14, 2023
Abstract
We
introduce
the
latest
version
of
RegCM
regional
climate
modeling
system,
RegCM5.
Compared
to
previous
model
(RegCM4)
main
new
development
is
inclusion
non‐hydrostatic
dynamical
core
from
weather
prediction
MOLOCH,
which
more
accurate
and
much
computationally
stable
efficient
than
one.
In
particular,
best
designed
for
use
at
convection‐permitting
resolutions
a
few
km.
Several
physics
schemes
coupled
components
have
also
been
upgraded
compared
model.
A
set
test
simulations
present
day
conditions
parameterized
convection
permitting
over
different
European
domains
presented
illustrative
purposes.
Overall,
these
RegCM5
exhibits
better
performance
RegCM4
majority
statistics
analyzed,
especially
resolutions.
However,
this
depends
on
used,
further
optimization
work
under
way
fully
in
settings
reduce
current
biases.
freely
available,
efficient,
flexible,
portable
Regional
Earth
System
community
use,
so
that
prospective
users
are
welcome
access
its
code
it
applications.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
15(10)
Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2023
Abstract
Single‐model
initial‐condition
large
ensembles
are
powerful
tools
to
quantify
the
forced
response,
internal
climate
variability,
and
their
evolution
under
global
warming.
Here,
we
present
CMIP6
version
of
Max
Planck
Institute
Grand
Ensemble
(MPI‐GE
CMIP6)
with
currently
30
realizations
for
historical
period
five
emission
scenarios.
The
power
MPI‐GE
goes
beyond
its
predecessor
ensemble
by
providing
high‐frequency
output,
full
range
scenarios
including
highly
policy‐relevant
low
SSP1‐1.9
SSP1‐2.6,
opportunity
compare
complementary
high‐resolution
simulations.
First,
describe
CMIP6,
evaluate
it
observations
reanalyzes
MPI‐GE.
Then,
demonstrate
six
application
examples
how
use
better
understand
future
extremes,
inform
about
uncertainty
in
approaching
Paris
Agreement
warming
limits,
combine
artificial
intelligence.
For
instance,
allows
us
show
that
recently
observed
Siberian
Pacific
North
American
heatwaves
would
only
avoid
reaching
1–2
years
return
periods
2071–2100
scenarios,
European
precipitation
extremes
captured
simulations,
3‐hourly
output
projects
a
decreasing
activity
storms
mid‐latitude
oceans.
Further,
is
ideal
estimates
probabilities
crossing
limits
irreducible
introduced
sufficiently
be
used
infilling
surface
temperature
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
27(5), С. 1133 - 1149
Опубликована: Март 15, 2023
Abstract.
Estimating
future
short-duration
extreme
precipitation
in
mountainous
regions
is
fundamental
for
risk
management.
High-resolution
convection-permitting
models
(CPMs)
represent
the
state
of
art
these
projections,
as
they
resolve
convective
processes
that
are
key
to
extremes.
Recent
observational
studies
reported
a
decrease
intensity
hourly
with
elevation.
This
“reverse
orographic
effect”
could
be
related
which
subgrid
even
CPMs.
To
quantify
reliability
projections
regions,
it
thus
crucial
understand
what
extent
CPMs
can
reproduce
this
effect.
Due
computational
demands
however,
CPM
simulations
still
too
short
analyzing
extremes
using
conventional
methods.
We
use
non-asymptotic
statistical
approach
(Simplified
Metastatistical
Extreme
Value:
SMEV)
analysis
from
time
periods,
such
ones
simulations.
analyze
an
ERA-Interim-driven
Consortium
Small-Scale
Modeling
(COSMO-crCLIM,
convection-resolving
Climate
Modelling)
simulation
(2000–2009;
2.2
km
resolution),
and
we
174
rain
gauges
orographically
complex
area
northeastern
Italy
benchmark.
investigate
ability
model
simulate
effect
on
extremes,
compared
data.
focus
high
20-year
return
levels.
While
overall
good
agreement
at
daily
duration,
tends
increasingly
overestimate
increasing
elevation,
implying
reverse
not
fully
captured.
These
findings
suggest
bias-correction
approaches
should
account
orography.
SMEV's
capability
estimating
reliable
rare
periods
promises
further
applications
short-time-period
ensembles.
The cryosphere,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
17(8), С. 3617 - 3660
Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2023
Abstract.
Assessing
past
distributions,
variability
and
trends
in
the
mountain
snow
cover
its
first-order
drivers,
temperature
precipitation,
is
key
for
a
wide
range
of
studies
applications.
In
this
study,
we
compare
results
various
modeling
systems
(global
regional
reanalyses
ERA5,
ERA5-Land,
ERA5-Crocus,
CERRA-Land,
UERRA
MESCAN-SURFEX
MTMSI
climate
model
simulations
CNRM-ALADIN
CNRM-AROME
driven
by
global
reanalysis
ERA-Interim)
against
observational
references
(in
situ,
gridded
datasets
satellite
observations)
across
European
Alps
from
1950
to
2020.
The
comparisons
are
performed
terms
monthly
seasonal
variables
(snow
depth
duration)
their
main
atmospherical
drivers
(near-surface
precipitation).
We
assess
multi-annual
averages
subregional
mean
values,
interannual
variations,
over
timescales,
mainly
winter
period
(from
November
through
April).
MESCAN-SURFEX,
CERRA-Land
offer
satisfying
description
evolution.
However,
spatial
comparison
observation
indicates
that
all
overestimate
duration,
especially
melt-out
date.
ERA5-Land
exhibit
an
overestimation
accumulation
during
winter,
increasing
with
elevations.
analysis
dynamics
remains
complex
multiple
scales
none
models
evaluated
here
fully
succeed
reproduce
compared
reference
datasets.
Indeed,
while
most
outputs
perform
well
at
representing
multi-decadal
precipitation
variability,
they
often
fail
address
duration.
discuss
several
artifacts
potentially
responsible
incorrect
long-term
products
(ERA5
MESCAN-SURFEX),
which
attribute
primarily
heterogeneities
assimilated.
Nevertheless,
many
considered
study
line
current
state
knowledge.
Based
on
these
datasets,
last
50
years
(1968–2017)
scale,
have
experienced
warming
0.3
0.4
∘C
per
decade,
stronger
lower
elevations,
small
reduction
homogeneous
elevation.
decline
duration
ranges
−7
%
−15
decade
−5
d
respectively,
both
showing
larger
decrease
low
intermediate
Overall,
show
no
strategy
outperforms
others
within
our
sample
upstream
choices
(horizontal
resolution,
heterogeneity
observations
used
data
assimilation
reanalyses,
coupling
between
surface
atmosphere,
level
complexity,
configuration
scheme,
etc.)
great
consequences
quality
potential
use.
Despite
limitations,
cases
can
be
characterize
features
This
paper
introduces
VHR-PRO_IT
(Very
High-Resolution
PROjections
for
ITaly),
an
open
access
hourly
climate
projection
with
a
resolution
of
≃2.2
km
(i.e.,
Convection
Permitting
Scale)
up
to
2050,
covering
the
Italian
peninsula
and
some
neighbouring
areas.
is
produced
within
Highlander
project
(
https://highlanderproject.eu/
)
by
dynamically
downscaling
Italy8km-CM
(spatial
≃8
km;
output
frequency
=
6
h;
driven
CMIP5
GCM
CMCC-CM)
Regional
Climate
Model
COSMO-CLM
under
IPCC
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
scenarios.
It
covers
60-year
period
1989-2050.
intended
research
purposes
in
field
studies.
For
example,
it
may
be
included
ongoing
activities
clarify
added
value
running
simulation
at
convection-permitting
scale.