Demographic Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51, С. 911 - 926
Опубликована: Окт. 16, 2024
Язык: Английский
The Lancet, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 403(10440), С. 1989 - 2056
Опубликована: Март 11, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
304
Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 7, 2024
Abstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions seemingly mild winters. The study aimed establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences vulnerability temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000–2019) were matched meteorological determine for each region temperature decrease and optimal lowest mortality. Regression models developed generalize explain these findings considering characteristics. Optimal predicted based on local average summer (R 2 = 85.6%). Regional explained by combination of 86.1%). Regions warm winters cold summers showed highest during winter. Contrary theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable Scandinavia. southern edges demonstrated serious decreased temperatures, even if was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests observed connection primarily reflects modulation length respiratory virus infection seasons climate conditions, counterbalanced varying levels acquired immunity presence heatwaves eliminating frail individuals. Thus, flat cycle countries harsh climates paradoxically imply threats throughout whole year.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
6
International Journal of Biometeorology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2025
Abstract Current predictions of climate change impacts rely on conservative assumptions about a lack adaptation, projecting significantly increased heatwave mortality. However, long-term studies have shown decline in actual deaths, raising questions the underlying mechanisms. We combined Eurostat weekly mortality data (baseline extracted via Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess and smoothed through Principal Component Analysis dimension reduction reconstruction) with economic indicators, Copernicus temperature since 1950, ENTSO-E electricity demand data. Panel regression analyzed patterns during weeks daily temperatures exceeding 22 °C for 2000–2022. During period, Europe outpaced change, capacity to tolerate an additional 1 rise every 17.9 years [95% CI 15.3–22.7]. Extending indicators beyond prior 3 did not enhance predictive accuracy, suggesting swift adaptations historical lacked any value. Additionally, increasing output, likely driven infrastructural improvements, especially greater affordability air conditioning, enabled tolerating each due per capita GDP increase 19.7 thousand euros 14.6–30.3]. Consistently, cooling energy was strongest eastern Europe. The findings shed light mechanisms driving observed despite warming trend, offering more plausible basis extrapolation than assuming adaptation. model emphasizes role long term growth addressing poverty.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 58, С. 101554 - 101554
Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
International Journal of Biometeorology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 68(5), С. 861 - 869
Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
3
Journal of Internal Medicine, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 296(2), С. 168 - 176
Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic, which started in 2020, resulted greater all-cause mortality 2020 and subsequent years. Whether remains elevated 2023 compared to pre-pandemic numbers is unknown.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
3
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 17(11)
Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023
Abstract Background This study aims to accurately estimate influenza‐associated deaths in Poland and their certified cause of death, due significant discrepancies between official numbers expected impact. Methods Excess mortality from 2000 2019 was calculated using Seasonal‐Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL), which can detect non‐linear trends non‐sinusoidal cycles. then used as an explanatory variable a model predicting monthly fluctuations officially recorded causes death 2010 2019. Results A total 142,000 conservative estimates were identified, representing 1.86% overall mortality. Only 0.61% influenza. Nearly half influenza attributed the seasonal baseline mortality, potentially doubling estimated impact solely peaks. Influenza‐associated frequently respiratory diseases (24.36%), with majority underlying conditions such cardiovascular (45.31%), cancer (9.06%), or diabetes (2.66%). more commonly nervous system (1.84%) mental disorders (1.04%), rather than itself. There noticeable secondary infections, meningococcal gastrointestinal infections. Conclusion These findings highlight importance improved estimation for informing public health policy decisions.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
6
Preventive Medicine Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 46, С. 102876 - 102876
Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare delivery and increased cardiovascular morbidity mortality. This study assesses whether mortality rates in the US have recovered post-pandemic examines equity of this recovery across different populations.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
BMC Public Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(1)
Опубликована: Окт. 22, 2024
Over the past four years, COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on public health, including mortality trends. This study investigates patterns in Belgium by examining all-cause mortality, excess and cause-specific mortality. We retrieved data from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2022, stratified age group sex. A linear mixed model, informed 2009 2019, was used predict non-pandemic rates 2020–2022 estimate Further, we also analyzed trends premature Different could be observed between younger (<45 years) older groups. The of particularly evident among highest occurred 2020, while reversal this trend 2022. notable effect over three-year period. Despite consistent decline reported period, it remains imperative meticulously monitor years ahead.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
BMC Public Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 2, 2024
Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality globally. However, the differences between Omicron and non-Omicron waves, as well contribution of local epidemiological characteristics, population immunity, social factors to mortality, remain poorly understood. This study aims solve above problems. Methods Weekly all-cause death data covariates from 29 countries for period 2015–2022 were collected used. Bayesian Structured Time Series Model predicted expected weekly deaths, stratified by gender age groups 2020–2022. quantile-based g-computation approach accounted effects on rate. Sensitivity analyses conducted using alternative proportion thresholds. Results From first week 2021 30th 2022, estimated cumulative number deaths due globally was nearly 1.39 million. rate approximately 2.17 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.47 2.86). rates significantly higher both male female all during wave, except those younger than 15 years ( P < 0.001). analysis confirmed stability results. Positive associations with found constituent ratio variants, new cases million, positive rate, cardiovascular people fully vaccinated hundred, extreme poverty, hospital patients million humans, stringency index. Conversely, other demonstrated negative 2022. Conclusion Our findings indicate that wave associated lower compared wave. study’s influencing suggests effective strategies mitigate include improving economic conditions, promoting widespread vaccination, enhancing overall health. Implementing these measures could reduce burden COVID-19, facilitate coexistence virus, potentially contribute its elimination.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0