Demographic Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51, P. 911 - 926
Published: Oct. 16, 2024
Language: Английский
The Lancet, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 403(10440), P. 1989 - 2056
Published: March 11, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
304
Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)
Published: Feb. 7, 2024
Abstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions seemingly mild winters. The study aimed establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences vulnerability temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000–2019) were matched meteorological determine for each region temperature decrease and optimal lowest mortality. Regression models developed generalize explain these findings considering characteristics. Optimal predicted based on local average summer (R 2 = 85.6%). Regional explained by combination of 86.1%). Regions warm winters cold summers showed highest during winter. Contrary theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable Scandinavia. southern edges demonstrated serious decreased temperatures, even if was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests observed connection primarily reflects modulation length respiratory virus infection seasons climate conditions, counterbalanced varying levels acquired immunity presence heatwaves eliminating frail individuals. Thus, flat cycle countries harsh climates paradoxically imply threats throughout whole year.
Language: Английский
Citations
6
International Journal of Biometeorology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Feb. 19, 2025
Abstract Current predictions of climate change impacts rely on conservative assumptions about a lack adaptation, projecting significantly increased heatwave mortality. However, long-term studies have shown decline in actual deaths, raising questions the underlying mechanisms. We combined Eurostat weekly mortality data (baseline extracted via Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess and smoothed through Principal Component Analysis dimension reduction reconstruction) with economic indicators, Copernicus temperature since 1950, ENTSO-E electricity demand data. Panel regression analyzed patterns during weeks daily temperatures exceeding 22 °C for 2000–2022. During period, Europe outpaced change, capacity to tolerate an additional 1 rise every 17.9 years [95% CI 15.3–22.7]. Extending indicators beyond prior 3 did not enhance predictive accuracy, suggesting swift adaptations historical lacked any value. Additionally, increasing output, likely driven infrastructural improvements, especially greater affordability air conditioning, enabled tolerating each due per capita GDP increase 19.7 thousand euros 14.6–30.3]. Consistently, cooling energy was strongest eastern Europe. The findings shed light mechanisms driving observed despite warming trend, offering more plausible basis extrapolation than assuming adaptation. model emphasizes role long term growth addressing poverty.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 58, P. 101554 - 101554
Published: April 23, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
0
International Journal of Biometeorology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 68(5), P. 861 - 869
Published: Feb. 16, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
3
Journal of Internal Medicine, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 296(2), P. 168 - 176
Published: June 3, 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic, which started in 2020, resulted greater all-cause mortality 2020 and subsequent years. Whether remains elevated 2023 compared to pre-pandemic numbers is unknown.
Language: Английский
Citations
3
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 17(11)
Published: Nov. 1, 2023
Abstract Background This study aims to accurately estimate influenza‐associated deaths in Poland and their certified cause of death, due significant discrepancies between official numbers expected impact. Methods Excess mortality from 2000 2019 was calculated using Seasonal‐Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL), which can detect non‐linear trends non‐sinusoidal cycles. then used as an explanatory variable a model predicting monthly fluctuations officially recorded causes death 2010 2019. Results A total 142,000 conservative estimates were identified, representing 1.86% overall mortality. Only 0.61% influenza. Nearly half influenza attributed the seasonal baseline mortality, potentially doubling estimated impact solely peaks. Influenza‐associated frequently respiratory diseases (24.36%), with majority underlying conditions such cardiovascular (45.31%), cancer (9.06%), or diabetes (2.66%). more commonly nervous system (1.84%) mental disorders (1.04%), rather than itself. There noticeable secondary infections, meningococcal gastrointestinal infections. Conclusion These findings highlight importance improved estimation for informing public health policy decisions.
Language: Английский
Citations
6
Preventive Medicine Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 46, P. 102876 - 102876
Published: Aug. 30, 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare delivery and increased cardiovascular morbidity mortality. This study assesses whether mortality rates in the US have recovered post-pandemic examines equity of this recovery across different populations.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1)
Published: Oct. 22, 2024
Over the past four years, COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on public health, including mortality trends. This study investigates patterns in Belgium by examining all-cause mortality, excess and cause-specific mortality. We retrieved data from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2022, stratified age group sex. A linear mixed model, informed 2009 2019, was used predict non-pandemic rates 2020–2022 estimate Further, we also analyzed trends premature Different could be observed between younger (<45 years) older groups. The of particularly evident among highest occurred 2020, while reversal this trend 2022. notable effect over three-year period. Despite consistent decline reported period, it remains imperative meticulously monitor years ahead.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1)
Published: Feb. 2, 2024
Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality globally. However, the differences between Omicron and non-Omicron waves, as well contribution of local epidemiological characteristics, population immunity, social factors to mortality, remain poorly understood. This study aims solve above problems. Methods Weekly all-cause death data covariates from 29 countries for period 2015–2022 were collected used. Bayesian Structured Time Series Model predicted expected weekly deaths, stratified by gender age groups 2020–2022. quantile-based g-computation approach accounted effects on rate. Sensitivity analyses conducted using alternative proportion thresholds. Results From first week 2021 30th 2022, estimated cumulative number deaths due globally was nearly 1.39 million. rate approximately 2.17 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.47 2.86). rates significantly higher both male female all during wave, except those younger than 15 years ( P < 0.001). analysis confirmed stability results. Positive associations with found constituent ratio variants, new cases million, positive rate, cardiovascular people fully vaccinated hundred, extreme poverty, hospital patients million humans, stringency index. Conversely, other demonstrated negative 2022. Conclusion Our findings indicate that wave associated lower compared wave. study’s influencing suggests effective strategies mitigate include improving economic conditions, promoting widespread vaccination, enhancing overall health. Implementing these measures could reduce burden COVID-19, facilitate coexistence virus, potentially contribute its elimination.
Language: Английский
Citations
0