The policy dimension of energy transition: The Brazilian case in promoting renewable energies (2000–2022)

Energy Policy, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 175, С. 113480 - 113480

Опубликована: Фев. 8, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Bias Correction in CMIP6 Models Simulations and Projections for Brazil’s Climate Assessment

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(1), С. 121 - 134

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 7(1), С. 99 - 130

Опубликована: Дек. 19, 2022

Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, finer grids Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) is evaluated using Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) over 1981-2014 period future changes (2021-2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5, ten regions Latin America Caribbean. impact increasing horizontal resolution variability a regional scale first compared against reference gridded datasets, including reanalysis, satellite, merging products. We used three different groups based model's grid (sg): (i) low (0.8° ≤ sg 1.87°), (ii) intermediate (0.5° 0.7°), (iii) high (0.23° ≥ 0.35°). Our analysis indicates that there was no clear evidence to support posit improves model performance. ECMWF-IFS family appears be plausible choice represent extremes, followed by ensemble mean HighResMIP their resolution. For climate, projections indicate consensus extremes increase across most regions. Despite uncertainties presented study, have been will continue important tool for assessing risk face events.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7.

Язык: Английский

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Comparison of multi-model ensembles of global and regional climate model projections for daily characteristics of precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa. Part II: Future changes under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C warming levels

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 293, С. 106921 - 106921

Опубликована: Июль 16, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating extreme precipitation and its projected changes in global climate regions

Natural Hazards, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 20, 2024

Extreme precipitation events usually lead to economic, agricultural, and social losses globally. The bias of different global circulation models (GCMs) is a major challenge in the projection extreme climate regions. Revealing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) GCMs helpful for providing reference predicting understanding performance CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs. Eight indices were used describe based on daily data retrieved from Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCP) 19 CMIP6 Six evaluation metrics adopted assess ability CMIP6-determined precipitation. results showed that half overestimated Sahara, Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia, underestimated northern North America Asia. In general, multimodel ensemble (MME) achieved greater simulating than did individual considered was relatively small tropical regions, especially equatorial future, will increase, under high emission scenarios (i.e., SSP5-8.5). notably increase cold polar Our could improve simulations, they are very important reliable future predictions.

Язык: Английский

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Extreme weather events and crop diversification: climate change adaptation in Brazil

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 30(5)

Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Toward Earth System Modeling with Resolved Clouds and Ocean Submesoscales on Heterogeneous Many-Core HPCs

National Science Review, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 10(6)

Опубликована: Март 20, 2023

With the aid of newly developed 'Sunway' heterogeneous-architecture supercomputer, which has world-leading HPC (high-performance computer) capability, a series high-resolution coupled Earth system models (SW-HRESMs) with up to 5 km atmosphere and 3 ocean have been developed. These can meet needs multiscale interaction studies different computational costs. Here we describe progress SW-HRESMs development, an overview major advancements made by international science community in HR-ESMs. We also show preliminary results regard capturing weather-climate extremes ocean, stressing importance permitted clouds submesoscale eddies modeling tropical cyclones eddy-mean flow interactions, paving way for further model development resolve finer scales even higher resolution more realistic physics. Finally, addition increasing resolution, procedure non-hydrostatic cloud resolved ESM is discussed, laying out scientific directions such huge advancement.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations over IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Discover Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 31, 2023

Abstract The Accuracy of model simulations is critical for climate change and its socio-economic impact. This study evaluated23 Global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). main objective was to identify top 10 best performance capturing patterns rainfall 1981–2014 period over Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region Eastern Africa. total rainfall, annual cycle, continuous, categorical Volumatic statistical metrics, scatter plots, Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), colored code portrait were used assess . Results indicate that most CMIP6 generally capture characteristics observed climatology pattern bimodal unimodal regimes. majority Arid Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan scored lowest skills, highest bias, over-estimated lower skills June–September (JJAS) compared March–May (MAM) October-December (OND). Quantitatively, a high percent bias exceeding 80% ASALs, correlation coefficient ranging between 0.6 0.7 across Ethiopia’s highlands, 5–40 as Root Mean Squared Error region. In addition, 21 out 23 parts ACCESS-ESM1-5 MIROC6 are opposed CNRM-CM6-1HR under-estimated RMSE values. regional sub-national analysis showed it inconclusive select best-performed based individual metrics analysis. Out models, INM-CM5-0, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, CMCC-CM2-HR4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, EC-Earth3, NorESM2-MM, GFDL-ESM4, TaiESM1, KIOST-ESM IGAD These findings highlight importance selecting mapping present future hotspots extreme events

Язык: Английский

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Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Climate, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(8), С. 166 - 166

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2023

Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation hydrological drought occurrence SA through climate projections from eight global models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To end, statistical downscaling was applied obtained using quantile delta mapping technique, method proved be efficient reducing systematic biases preserving GCMs’ trends. For following decades, results show considerable statistically significant reductions over most SA, especially during austral spring, with intense signal under SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about frequency intensity events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding increased duration severity continent a substantial proportion moderate severe Brazil 21st century. These can helpful better management resources by decision-makers planners.

Язык: Английский

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Space–Time Characterization of Extreme Precipitation Indices for the Semiarid Region of Brazil

Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(3), С. 43 - 43

Опубликована: Март 13, 2024

Various indices of climate variability and extremes are extensively employed to characterize potential effects change. Particularly, the semiarid region Brazil is influenced by adverse these changes, especially in terms precipitation. In this context, main objective present study was regional trends extreme precipitation (SAB), using daily data from IMERG V06 product, spanning period 1 January 2001 31 December 2020. Twelve were considered, which estimated annually, their spatial temporal subsequently analyzed nonparametric Mann–Kendall test Sen’s slope. The analysis revealed that peripheral areas SAB, northwest south regions, exhibited higher intensity frequency events compared central portion area. However, a negative trend event noted north, while positive identified south. showed predominance across most region, with an increase consecutive dry days particularly throughout western SAB. average total index above 1000 mm north whereas averages predominantly below 600 mm, rainfall values ranging between 6 10 mm/day. Over span 20 years, underwent 40 certain localities. A observed indices, indicating reduction future decades, variations some indices. years towards end likely contributed majority Such directly impact weather important for highlighting considering impacts changes Brazil. Based on obtained results, we advocate implementation public policies address challenges, such as incorporating adaptations water resource management, sustainable agricultural practices, planning urban rural areas.

Язык: Английский

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