Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 377(6611)

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Nature, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 608(7923), С. 534 - 539

Опубликована: Июль 13, 2022

Abstract Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural anthropogenic perturbations (that is, resilience) 1 . Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation forest resilience 2 , yet little known how it evolving response climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning show resilience, quantified terms critical slowing down indicators 3–5 has changed during the period 2000–2020. We that tropical, arid temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline probably related increased water limitations variability. By contrast, boreal divergent local patterns an average increasing trend benefiting warming CO fertilization, which may outweigh adverse effects These emerge consistently both managed intact forests, corroborating existence common large-scale drivers. Reductions statistically linked abrupt declines primary productivity, occurring slow drifting towards threshold. Approximately 23% undisturbed corresponding 3.32 Pg C gross have already reached threshold further degradation resilience. Together, these signals reveal widespread perturbation should be accounted for design land-based mitigation adaptation plans.

Язык: Английский

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Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Annual Review of Plant Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 73(1), С. 673 - 702

Опубликована: Март 1, 2022

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data understanding identify whether these represent a trend toward increasing mortality. Here, we document events sudden unexpected drought in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk exposure. These underscore the fact may affect forests with force future. use as examples highlight current difficulties challenges for realistically predicting such uncertainties future condition. Advances remote sensing technology greater availably high-resolution data, from field assessments satellites, are needed improve prediction responses change. Expected final online publication date Annual Review Plant Biology, Volume 73 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates revised estimates.

Язык: Английский

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Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 29(5), С. 1359 - 1376

Опубликована: Дек. 12, 2022

Abstract Over the last decades, natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in regimes may compromise forest functioning and continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central many policies, we lack long‐term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding dynamics, modeling them, developing adaptive management strategies. Here, present a unique database >170,000 records ground‐based observations from 1950 2019. Reported confirm significant increase 34 countries, causing an average 43.8 million m 3 disturbed timber volume per year over 70‐year study period. This value likely conservative estimate due under‐reporting, especially small‐scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques assessing magnitude unreported disturbances, which estimated be between 8.6 18.3 /year. In 20 years, disturbances accounted 16% mean annual harvest Europe. Wind was most important agent period (46% total damage), followed by fire (24%) bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle doubled its share damage years. Forest can profoundly impact (e.g., mitigation), affect regional resource consequently disrupt planning objectives markets. conclude that adaptation changing must placed at core policy debate. Furthermore, coherent homogeneous monitoring system urgently Europe, better observe respond ongoing changes regimes.

Язык: Английский

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Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests

Communications Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Март 10, 2022

Abstract The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes 5800 beech trees ( Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic climatic range species. Future trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art scenarios. validated models indicate declines across large region distribution decades, project severe ranging −20% to more than −50% 2090, depending on change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses most striking towards southern limit , regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems expected increase drought severity. projected 21 st century Europe serious ecological economic consequences that require immediate adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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European forests under global climate change: Review of tree growth processes, crises and management strategies

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 332, С. 117353 - 117353

Опубликована: Янв. 28, 2023

Язык: Английский

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A First Assessment of Canopy Cover Loss in Germany’s Forests after the 2018–2020 Drought Years

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 14(3), С. 562 - 562

Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2022

Central Europe was hit by several unusually strong periods of drought and heat between 2018 2020. These droughts affected forest ecosystems. Cascading effects with bark beetle infestations in spruce stands were fatal to vast areas Germany. We present the first assessment canopy cover loss Germany for period January 2018–April 2021. Our approach makes use dense Sentinel-2 Landsat-8 time-series data. computed disturbance index (DI) from tasseled cap components brightness, greenness, wetness. Using quantiles, we generated monthly DI composites calculated anomalies a reference (2017). From resulting map, statistics administrative entities. results show 501,000 ha Germany, large regional differences. The losses largest central reached up two-thirds coniferous some districts. map has high spatial (10 m) temporal (monthly) resolution can be updated at any time.

Язык: Английский

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Releasing global forests from human management: How much more carbon could be stored?

Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 380(6646), С. 749 - 753

Опубликована: Май 18, 2023

Carbon storage in forests is a cornerstone of policy-making to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C. However, the impact management (for example, harvesting) on carbon budget remains poorly quantified. We integrated maps forest biomass and with machine learning show that by removing human intervention, under current climatic conditions dioxide (CO2) concentration, existing could increase their aboveground up 44.1 (error range: 21.0 63.0) petagrams carbon. This an 15 16% over levels, equating about 4 years anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, without strong reductions emissions, this strategy holds low mitigation potential, sink should be preserved offset residual emissions rather than compensate for present levels.

Язык: Английский

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Coupled impacts of climate and land use changes on regional ecosystem services

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 326, С. 116753 - 116753

Опубликована: Ноя. 15, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Mitigating Climate Change and the Development of Green Energy versus a Return to Fossil Fuels Due to the Energy Crisis in 2022

Energies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(24), С. 9289 - 9289

Опубликована: Дек. 7, 2022

The energy crisis that emerged as a result of the reduction in gas supplies from Russia is very topical and important. This affects not only Europe but also other world economies. As Russia’s attack on Ukraine sanctions imposed Russia, there was drastic drop Russian supplies, which triggered an increase fuel prices crisis. In order to reduce risk insufficient European countries have decided reuse coal fossil fuels. opposite direction decarbonization zero-carbon economy. undertaken research unique, because issue slowing down returning fuels has yet been extensively studied. Therefore, analysis results are new this area. project green production renewable sources implemented so far, aims accelerate implementation zero-emission economy, may be slowed down. Moreover, return will negative impact climate change. sharp unexpected growth profits companies meant Commission introduced limit revenues enterprises sector. Surplus income transferred entities offset prices. conducted showed how Union try ensure security what current actions related protection moving toward environmentally friendly economy be.

Язык: Английский

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