Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

Nature, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 575(7784), С. 592 - 595

Опубликована: Ноя. 27, 2019

Язык: Английский

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An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Science, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 369(6509), С. 1383 - 1387

Опубликована: Сен. 10, 2020

Much of our understanding Earth's past climate comes from the measurement oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals existing records lack temporal resolution age control needed to thoroughly categorize states Cenozoic era study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite foraminifer developed laboratories. Four states-Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse-are identified on basis distinctive response astronomical forcing depending greenhouse gas concentrations polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis nonlinear behavior encoded record reveals key role that volume plays predictability

Язык: Английский

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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 377(6611)

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 3(3), С. 182 - 190

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2019

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators complex physical models integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions their subsequent impacts on global economy under Paris Agreement scenarios. The feedback is increasingly positive warmer climates, while albedo weakens as snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead significant increases mean discounted economic effect change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 2 +4.8% ($66.9 mitigation levels consistent with current national pledges. Considering makes target marginally more economically attractive than target, although both are statistically equivalent.

Язык: Английский

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Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 117(5), С. 2354 - 2365

Опубликована: Янв. 21, 2020

Significance Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social technological change within next few years. Drawing expert elicitation, an workshop, review literature, which provides comprehensive analysis this topic, we propose concrete interventions induce positive tipping dynamics transformation carbon-neutral societies. These comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies incentivizing decentralized energy generation, building cities, divesting from assets linked fossil fuels, revealing moral implications strengthening education engagement, disclosing greenhouse gas emissions information.

Язык: Английский

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Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 1(10), С. 500 - 515

Опубликована: Авг. 18, 2020

Язык: Английский

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A Global Assessment: Can Renewable Energy Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050?

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 14(8), С. 4792 - 4792

Опубликована: Апрель 16, 2022

Our study evaluated the effectiveness of using eight pathways in combination for a complete to transition from fossil fuels renewable energy by 2050. These included development; improving efficiency; increasing conservation; carbon taxes; more equitable balancing human wellbeing and per capita use; cap trade systems; capture, utilization, storage; nuclear power development. We used annual ‘British Petroleum statistical review world 2021’ report as our primary database. Globally, fuels, (primarily hydro, wind solar), accounted 83%, 12.6%, 6.3% total consumption 2020. To achieve zero fuel use 2050, we found that production will need be increased up 6-fold or 8-fold if demand is held constant at, 50% from, 2020 level. Constraining 2050 25% increase over level, improves probability achieving independence fuels. Improvements efficiency accelerate beyond current rate ~1.5% year. Aggressive application conservation policies involving land taxation could potentially reduce 10% meta-analysis shows minimum level would allow 8 billion people have ‘Decent Living Standard’ on average ~70 GJ year, which 93% global average. Developed countries temperate climates with high vehicle-dependency needed ~120 year−1, whereas equatorial low 30 year−1. meta-analyses indicated replacement may possible but require aggressive all pathways, major lifestyle changes developed countries, close cooperation among countries.

Язык: Английский

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A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 5(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 5, 2019

The Global Deal for Nature sets an ambitious agenda to protect our biosphere through ecosystem conservation and land restoration.

Язык: Английский

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Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Nature, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 619(7968), С. 102 - 111

Опубликована: Май 31, 2023

Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system human well-being are inseparably linked 1–3 , yet their interdependencies generally under-recognized; consequently, they often treated independently 4,5 . Here, we use modelling literature assessment to quantify safe just boundaries (ESBs) for climate, biosphere, water nutrient cycles, aerosols at global subglobal scales. We propose ESBs maintaining (safe ESBs) minimizing exposure significant harm humans from change (a necessary but not sufficient condition justice) 4 stricter or sets integrated ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain more than safety climate atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven eight globally quantified least two regional in over half land area already exceeded. our provides a quantitative foundation safeguarding commons all people now into future.

Язык: Английский

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