Climate change and the threat to civilization DOI Creative Commons
Daniel Steel, C. Tyler DesRoches, Kian Mintz‐Woo

и другие.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 119(42)

Опубликована: Окт. 6, 2022

In a speech about climate change from April 4th of this year, UN General Secretary Ant onio Guterres lambasted "the empty pledges that put us on track to an unlivable world" and warned "we are fast disaster" (1).Although stark, Guterres' statements were not novel.Guterres has made similar remarks previous occasions, as have other public figures, including Sir David Attenborough, who in 2018 inaction could lead collapse our civilizations" (2).In their article, "World Scientists' Warning Climate Emergency 2021"-which now more than 14,700 signatories 158 countries-William J. Ripple colleagues state "cause significant disruptions ecosystems, society, economies, potentially making large areas Earth uninhabitable" (3).Because civilization cannot exist or uninhabitable places, all the above warnings can be understood asserting potential for anthropogenic cause (or "climate collapse") greater lesser extent.Yet despite discussing many adverse impacts, science literature, synthesized instance by assessment reports Intergovernmental Panel Change (IPCC), little at say whether under which conditions might threaten civilization.Although body scientific research exists historical archeological cases ( 4), discussions mechanisms whereby The consequences likely dire-and some scenarios, catastrophic.Scholars need start actual civilizations.

Язык: Английский

Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action DOI Creative Commons
William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Timothy M. Lenton

и другие.

One Earth, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(2), С. 86 - 91

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2023

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

330
World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022 DOI Open Access
William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf,

Jillian W. Gregg

и другие.

BioScience, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 72(12), С. 1149 - 1155

Опубликована: Сен. 6, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

265
Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts DOI
Hans‐Otto Pörtner, Robert J. Scholes, Almut Arneth

и другие.

Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 380(6642)

Опубликована: Апрель 20, 2023

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social economic inequalities, habitat loss, many which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, society develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C effectively conserving restoring functional ecosystems on 30 50% land, freshwater, ocean "scapes." We envision mosaic interconnected protected shared spaces, including intensively used strengthen self-sustaining the capacity people nature adapt mitigate change, nature's contributions people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, planetary health for livable future urgently requires bold implementation transformative policy interventions through institutions, governance, systems from local global levels.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

257
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation DOI Creative Commons
Peter Ditlevsen, Susanne Ditlevsen

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2023

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and future collapse would have severe impacts on North region. In recent years weakening has been reported, but assessments by Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC), based Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that full unlikely within 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state is, however, growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions observations rely detecting early-warning signals, primarily increase variance (loss of resilience) increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which recently reported for AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance data-driven estimators time tipping. We estimate AMOC occur around mid-century under current scenario emissions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

247
Quantifying the human cost of global warming DOI Creative Commons
Timothy M. Lenton, Chi Xu, Jesse F. Abrams

и другие.

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(10), С. 1237 - 1247

Опубликована: Май 22, 2023

Abstract The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them terms numbers people left outside the ‘human niche’—defined as historically highly conserved distribution relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that has already put ~9% (>600 million) niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) Reducing from 1.5 results a ~5-fold decrease exposed unprecedented heat (mean temperature ≥29 °C). lifetime emissions ~3.5 average citizens today (or ~1.2 US citizens) expose one future person by end-of-century. That comes place where half average. These highlight need for more decisive policy action limit and inequities change.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

189
The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory DOI Creative Commons
William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf,

Jillian W. Gregg

и другие.

BioScience, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 73(12), С. 841 - 850

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2023

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

144
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model DOI
Nico Wunderling, Ricarda Winkelmann, Johan Rockström

и другие.

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(1), С. 75 - 82

Опубликована: Дек. 22, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

137
Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement DOI Creative Commons
Michael Lawrence,

Thomas Homer‐Dixon,

Scott Janzwood

и другие.

Global Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine have recently linked together in ways that are significant scope, devastating effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars policymakers characterize situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains defined. We provide concept with substantive definition, highlight its value-added comparison to related concepts, develop theoretical framework explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many world's crises. In framework, crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combine slow-moving stresses push system out established equilibrium into volatile harmful state disequilibrium. then identify three pathways common stresses, domino effects, inter-systemic feedbacks can connect multiple systems produce synchronized Drawing current examples, we show polycrisis is valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, opening avenues future research. Non-technical summary The term ‘polycrisis’ appears frequently capture interconnections between word lacks content. article, convert it from an empty buzzword conceptual research program enables us better understand linkages contemporary draw upon intersection covid-19 illustrate these explore key features present polycrisis. Technical combines Social media No longer mere buzzword, highlights interactions among help navigate tumultuous future.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

136
Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers DOI Creative Commons
Simon Willcock, Gregory S. Cooper, John Addy

и другие.

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(11), С. 1331 - 1342

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2023

A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is possibility of collapse, where landscapes and societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies extreme events strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single may provide poor estimates impact climate human activities ecosystems. We conduct experiments four models simulate abrupt Chilika lagoon fishery, Easter Island community, forest dieback lake water quality—representing with range anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under levels primary but additional stresses and/or inclusion noise all bring collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. discuss implications further research need humanity be vigilant signs are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought. Current models, stress, have limited ability anticipate ecosystem due activities. Experiments simulating interactions show how much earlier can happen.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

96
The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth DOI Creative Commons
William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf,

Jillian W. Gregg

и другие.

BioScience, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 8, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

61