Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action

One Earth, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(2), P. 86 - 91

Published: Feb. 1, 2023

Language: Английский

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World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022

BioScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 72(12), P. 1149 - 1155

Published: Sept. 6, 2022

Language: Английский

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Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 380(6642)

Published: April 20, 2023

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social economic inequalities, habitat loss, many which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, society develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C effectively conserving restoring functional ecosystems on 30 50% land, freshwater, ocean "scapes." We envision mosaic interconnected protected shared spaces, including intensively used strengthen self-sustaining the capacity people nature adapt mitigate change, nature's contributions people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, planetary health for livable future urgently requires bold implementation transformative policy interventions through institutions, governance, systems from local global levels.

Language: Английский

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Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: July 25, 2023

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and future collapse would have severe impacts on North region. In recent years weakening has been reported, but assessments by Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC), based Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that full unlikely within 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state is, however, growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions observations rely detecting early-warning signals, primarily increase variance (loss of resilience) increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which recently reported for AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance data-driven estimators time tipping. We estimate AMOC occur around mid-century under current scenario emissions.

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(10), P. 1237 - 1247

Published: May 22, 2023

Abstract The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them terms numbers people left outside the ‘human niche’—defined as historically highly conserved distribution relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that has already put ~9% (>600 million) niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) Reducing from 1.5 results a ~5-fold decrease exposed unprecedented heat (mean temperature ≥29 °C). lifetime emissions ~3.5 average citizens today (or ~1.2 US citizens) expose one future person by end-of-century. That comes place where half average. These highlight need for more decisive policy action limit and inequities change.

Language: Английский

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The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory

BioScience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 73(12), P. 841 - 850

Published: Aug. 30, 2023

Language: Английский

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Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 75 - 82

Published: Dec. 22, 2022

Language: Английский

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Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement

Global Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine have recently linked together in ways that are significant scope, devastating effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars policymakers characterize situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains defined. We provide concept with substantive definition, highlight its value-added comparison to related concepts, develop theoretical framework explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many world's crises. In framework, crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combine slow-moving stresses push system out established equilibrium into volatile harmful state disequilibrium. then identify three pathways common stresses, domino effects, inter-systemic feedbacks can connect multiple systems produce synchronized Drawing current examples, we show polycrisis is valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, opening avenues future research. Non-technical summary The term ‘polycrisis’ appears frequently capture interconnections between word lacks content. article, convert it from an empty buzzword conceptual research program enables us better understand linkages contemporary draw upon intersection covid-19 illustrate these explore key features present polycrisis. Technical combines Social media No longer mere buzzword, highlights interactions among help navigate tumultuous future.

Language: Английский

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Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 1331 - 1342

Published: June 22, 2023

A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is possibility of collapse, where landscapes and societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies extreme events strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single may provide poor estimates impact climate human activities ecosystems. We conduct experiments four models simulate abrupt Chilika lagoon fishery, Easter Island community, forest dieback lake water quality—representing with range anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under levels primary but additional stresses and/or inclusion noise all bring collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. discuss implications further research need humanity be vigilant signs are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought. Current models, stress, have limited ability anticipate ecosystem due activities. Experiments simulating interactions show how much earlier can happen.

Language: Английский

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Scientific novelty beyond the experiment

Microbial Biotechnology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 1131 - 1173

Published: Feb. 14, 2023

Practical experiments drive important scientific discoveries in biology, but theory-based research studies also contribute novel-sometimes paradigm-changing-findings. Here, we appraise the roles of approaches focusing on experiment-dominated wet-biology areas microbial growth and survival, cell physiology, host-pathogen interactions, competitive or symbiotic interactions. Additional examples relate to analyses genome-sequence data, climate change planetary health, habitability, astrobiology. We assess importance thought at each step process; natural philosophy, inconsistencies logic language, as drivers progress; value experiments; use limitations artificial intelligence technologies, including their potential for interdisciplinary transdisciplinary research; other instances when theory is most-direct most-scientifically robust route novelty development techniques practical experimentation fieldwork. highlight intrinsic need human engagement innovation, an issue pertinent ongoing controversy over papers authored using/authored by (such large language model/chatbot ChatGPT). Other issues discussed are way which aspects can bias thinking towards spatial rather than temporal (and how this biased lead skewed terminology); receptivity that non-mainstream; science education epistemology. Whereas briefly classic works (those Oakes Ames, Francis H.C. Crick James D. Watson, Charles R. Darwin, Albert Einstein, E. Lovelock, Lynn Margulis, Gilbert Ryle, Erwin R.J.A. Schrödinger, Alan M. Turing, others), focus microbiology more-recent, discussing these context process types they represent. These include several carried out during 2020 2022 lockdowns COVID-19 pandemic access laboratories was disallowed (or limited). interviewed authors some featured microbiology-related and-although ourselves involved laboratory fieldwork-also drew from our own experiences showing such not only produce new findings transcend barriers between disciplines, act counter reductionism, integrate biological data across different timescales levels complexity, circumvent constraints imposed techniques. In relation urgent needs, believe global challenges may require beyond experiment.

Language: Английский

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