Patch aggregation trends of the global climate landscape under future global warming scenario DOI
Hongwei Lu, Yanlong Guan, Li He

и другие.

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 40(5), С. 2674 - 2685

Опубликована: Окт. 14, 2019

Abstract The global temperature has increased approximately 0.9°C over the past 50 years and is projected to continue increase. Many efforts have been taken investigate evolutionary dynamics of climate classification zones in response rising temperature. However, changing spatial patterns remain poorly understood. It thus desired that unobserved characteristics patterns, such as aggregation subdivision, are explored from landscape perspective. Here, we demonstrate undergone a process during 100 this dynamic expected future. effect especially evident Arctic, Tibet, East Africa. We find tropical, arid, temperate, cold climates aggregating while polar zone exhibits subdivision. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates clear with latitudinal feature. should pay enough attention phenomenon patch pattern, which will undoubtedly help us deepen understanding change further explore feedback relationship between biological systems.

Язык: Английский

Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe DOI Creative Commons
Cornelius Senf, Rupert Seidl

Biogeosciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 18(18), С. 5223 - 5230

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2021

Abstract. Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018, compounding with extensive heat wave the same and subsequent years. Here we provide a first assessment of impacts this event had on forest disturbance regimes Europe. We find that 2018 caused unprecedented levels across large parts Europe, persisting up to 2 years post-drought. The pushed edge their past range variation, especially central eastern Increased were associated low soil water availability further modulated high vapor pressure deficit from 2020. also document emergence novel spatiotemporal patterns following (i.e., more larger disturbances, occurring higher autocorrelation) will have long-lasting structure raise concerns about potential loss resilience. conclude highlighting urgent need adapt Europe's forests hotter drier future disturbance.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

106

Quantifying Carbon and Nutrient Input From Litterfall in European Forests Using Field Observations and Modeling DOI Creative Commons
Mathias Neumann, Liisa Ukonmaanaho,

James Johnson

и другие.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 32(5), С. 784 - 798

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2018

Abstract Litterfall is a major, yet poorly studied, process within forest ecosystems globally. It important for carbon dynamics, edaphic communities, and maintaining site fertility. Reliable information on the nutrient input from litterfall, provided by litter traps, relevant to wide audience including policy makers soil scientists. We used litterfall observations of 320 plots pan‐European monitoring network “International Co‐operative Programme Assessment Monitoring Air Pollution Effects Forests” quantify fluxes. Eight models were evaluated (four using climate four biomass abundance). scaled up our results total European area quantified contribution cycle net primary production aggregated bioregions (north, central, south) types (conifers broadleaves). The 1,604 analyzed annual indicated an average 224 g C · m −2 year −1 (annual inputs 4.49 N, 0.32 P, 1.05 K ), representing substantial percentage 36% in north Europe 32% central Europe. turnover broadleaf canopies was larger than conifers. provide large‐scale predictions with bias less 10%. Each forests transfers 351 Tg C, 8.2 0.6 1.9 floor. performance may be improved foliage proxies management.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

104

Ips typographus and Dendroctonus ponderosae Models Project Thermal Suitability for Intra- and Inter-Continental Establishment in a Changing Climate DOI Creative Commons
Barbara Bentz, Anna Maria Jönsson, Martin Schroeder

и другие.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 2

Опубликована: Март 15, 2019

Climate change is altering legacies of native insect-caused disturbances and contributing to non-native invasions globally. Many insect fitness traits are temperature dependent projected climatic changes expected cause continued alterations in tree mortality, with uncertain consequences for forest ecosystems their management. Dendroctonus ponderosae Pinus habitats western North America Ips typographus European Picea among the most significant mortality agents on each continent. Changing climate influencing both species habitats, although thermal suitability if they should invade new continents novel has not been investigated. We assessed intra- inter-continental establishment using physiological models that describe evolved, temperature-dependent species. Models were driven by projections from two Global representing RCP 8.5. Simulations suggest common phenological strategy one generation annually (univoltine) will shift northward warming throughout this century. As optimum habitat I. univoltinism shifts northward, supporting a 2nd generation, historically warm forests, expands continents. In contrast, D. rare due evolved synchrony its cool habitats. limited warmest forests near future (2011-2040), project extensive species, highlighting need effective mitigation policies monitoring at ports an era increasing global trade. Throughout century, remains high population success continents, areas Europe, expansion into American Portions historical range, however, become thermally unsuitable.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

103

One Century of Forest Monitoring Data in Switzerland Reveals Species- and Site-Specific Trends of Climate-Induced Tree Mortality DOI Creative Commons
Sophia Etzold, Kasia Ziemińska, Brigitte Rohner

и другие.

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 10

Опубликована: Март 22, 2019

Climate-induced tree mortality became a global phenomenon during the last century and it is expected to increase in many regions future along with further frequency of drought heat events. However, at ecosystem level remains challenging quantify since long-term, tree- individual, reliable observations are scarce. Here, we present unique data set monitoring records from 126 forest stands across Switzerland, which include five major European species (Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, beech, sessile common oak) cover time span over one (1898-2013), inventory periods 5 10 years. The long-term average annual rate investigated was 1.5%. In general, species-specific rates did not consistently decades, except for pine forests lower altitudes, exhibited clear 1960s. Temporal trends varied also depending on diameter breast height (DBH), large trees generally experiencing an mortality, while small tended decrease. Normalized were remarkably similar between modest, but consistent steady increasing trend apparent throughout study period. Mixed effects models revealed that gradually changing stand parameters (stand basal area age) had strongest impact rates, modulated by climate, importance decades. Hereby, recent climatic changes highly variable combination abiotic biotic site conditions. This suggests composition ranges may change under climate Our highlight complexity dynamical processes such as gradual structure, demography composition, together determine rates.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

102

Effects of disturbance patterns and deadwood on the microclimate in European beech forests DOI
Dominik Thom, Andreas Sommerfeld, Julius Sebald

и другие.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 291, С. 108066 - 108066

Опубликована: Июнь 10, 2020

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

93

Increasing canopy mortality affects the future demographic structure of Europe's forests DOI Creative Commons
Cornelius Senf, Julius Sebald, Rupert Seidl

и другие.

One Earth, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 4(5), С. 749 - 755

Опубликована: Май 1, 2021

Increasing tree mortality can have pervasive impacts on forest dynamics. Yet, large-scale trends in and their effects demography remain poorly quantified despite the important role of for carbon pools biodiversity. Analyzing satellite data at 19,896 plots, we here show that canopy 35 European countries increased from 1985 to 2018 (+1.5% ± 0.28% yr−1). Using simulations, demonstrate recent levels will halt aging trend Europe's forests a further increase has potential strongly alter toward younger forests. These demographic changes cascading negative biodiversity storage. Developing strategies address increasing should thus be key priority policy management Europe.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

92

Post-disturbance recovery of forest cover and tree height differ with management in Central Europe DOI Creative Commons
Cornelius Senf, Jörg Müller, Rupert Seidl

и другие.

Landscape Ecology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 34(12), С. 2837 - 2850

Опубликована: Окт. 30, 2019

Abstract Context Recovery from disturbances is a prominent measure of forest ecosystem resilience, with swift recovery indicating resilient systems. The ecosystems Central Europe have recently been affected by unprecedented levels natural disturbance, yet our understanding their ability to recover still limited. Objectives We here integrated satellite and airborne Lidar data (i) quantify multi-decadal post-disturbance two indicators structure, (ii) compare the trajectories structure among managed un-managed forests. Methods developed satellite-based models predicting Lidar-derived estimates tree cover stand height at 30 m grain across 3100 km 2 landscape in Bohemian Forest Ecosystem (Central Europe). summarized percentage disturbed area that recovered > 40% 5 quantified variability both over 30-year period. analyses were stratified three management regimes (managed, protected, strictly protected) types (beech-dominated, spruce-dominated). Results found on average 84% met threshold years post-disturbance. rate was slower compared Variability more persistent time forests, while forests strongly converged after few decades Conclusion conclude current facilitates European ecosystems. However, results underline well also absence human intervention. Our analysis highlights high resilience recent disturbances.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

89

Large‐scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests DOI
Jonathan S. Schurman, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Radek Bače

и другие.

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 24(5), С. 2169 - 2181

Опубликована: Янв. 11, 2018

Determining the drivers of shifting forest disturbance rates remains a pressing global change issue. Large-scale dynamics are commonly assumed to be climate driven, but appropriately scaled histories rarely available assess how legacies alter subsequent and sensitivity disturbance. We compiled multiple tree ring-based from primary Picea abies fragments distributed throughout five European landscapes spanning Bohemian Forest Carpathian Mountains. The regional chronology includes 11,595 cores, with ring dates years 1750-2000, collected 560 inventory plots in 37 stands across 1,000 km geographic gradient, amounting largest yet constructed Europe. Decadal varied significantly through time declined after 1920, resulting widespread increases canopy age. Approximately 75% current area recruited prior 1900. Long-term patterns were compared an historical drought reconstruction, further linked spatial variation stand structure contemporary derived LANDSAT imagery. Historically, decadal Palmer severity index minima corresponded higher removal. disturbances increased each stand's estimated since last major disturbance, mean diameter, increasing within-stand structural variability. Reconstructed suggest that high small-scale variability has historically acted reduce large-scale susceptibility Reduced potential legacy 19th century rates, have contributed recent region-wide increase susceptibility. Increasingly common high-severity forests Central Europe should reinterpreted light both effects (resulting susceptibility) exposure extreme events).

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

85

Natural disturbance regimes as a guide for sustainable forest management in Europe DOI
Réka Aszalós, Dominik Thom, Tuomas Aakala

и другие.

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 32(5)

Опубликована: Март 27, 2022

In Europe, forest management has controlled dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience environmental stress as well threatens biodiversity, leading increasing susceptibility an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative systems, including natural silviculture (NDS). NDS aims emulate disturbance at stand landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations structure patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) assess convergence/divergence between disturbances effects. extended the original CI concept based on size frequency by adding residual canopy trees after third dimension. populated model compiling data from 13 countries covering four major types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, pine-dominated forests). found that are highly variable size, frequency, structure, but European fails encompass this complexity. Silviculture Europe is skewed toward even-aged used predominately (72.9% management) across assessed. The proved crucial comparison systems. indicated highest congruence uneven-aged systems key attributes. Even so, practices emulated only portion complexity associated with remaining perform poorly terms retention compared tree survivorship suggest can enrich Europe's portfolio example where wood not primary objective. especially relevant forests managed habitat quality, risk reduction, variety ecosystem services. holistic approach integrating more conventional practices.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

58

Patterns, drivers and detectability of infestation symptoms following attacks by the European spruce bark beetle DOI Creative Commons
Markus Kautz,

Felix Johannes Peter,

Laura Harms

и другие.

Journal of Pest Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 96(1), С. 403 - 414

Опубликована: Апрель 15, 2022

Abstract Recent outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle ( Ips typographus ) in Norway Picea abies forests Central Europe highlight importance timely detection and sanitation infested trees for pest management efficacy. This study provides novel quantitative evidence on manifestation infestation symptoms their visual detectability, to guide accelerated, optimized terrestrial monitoring, as well establishing benchmarks potential alternative (e.g. sensor-based) monitoring approaches. We employed bi-weekly, individual tree-level assessments 85 hectares spruce-dominated unmanaged forest over a 2-year period south-western Germany (detecting total 1,176 trees). By applying decision tree-type models, we quantified predictive power observed correlation with environmental factors time. Terrestrial accuracy timeliness were high, suggestive being sufficient suppress I. outbreak propagation by subsequent felling. Among six studied symptoms, boring dust occurred most frequently (in 82% correctly detected infestations) is suitable detection. Total symptom abundance was best explained two site parameters (slope, Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Index) population density, while it widely independent tree Though varied time among trees, patterns clearly identified. For instance, infestations spring critical be detected, increasing crown discoloration defoliation facilitated late summer autumn. Findings further imply that hibernation would optimally already felling applied before November.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

43