Real-time Dissection and Forecast of Infection Dynamics during a Pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Steven Schulz, Richard W. Pastor,

Cenk Koyuncuoglu

и другие.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 6, 2023

Abstract Pandemic preparedness requires institutions, including public health authorities and governments, to detect, survey control outbreaks. To maintain an accurate, quantitative up-to-date picture of epidemic crisis is key. For SARS-CoV-2, this was mostly achieved by ascertaining incidence numbers the effective reproductive number ( R eff ), which counts how many people infected person likely infect on average. These give strong hints past infection dynamics in a population but fail clearly characterize current future as well potential effects pharmaceutical non-pharmaceutical interventions. We show that, using combining surveillance population-scale contact statistics, we can obtain better understanding drivers waves effectiveness This approach provide real-time picture, thus saving not only lives quickly allowing adaptation policies also alleviating economic other burdens if intervention proves ineffective. factorize into contacts relative transmissibility: Both signals be used, individually combined, identify driving forces epidemic, monitoring assessing interventions, projecting epidemic’s trajectory. Using data for SARS-CoV-2 Influenza from 2019 onward Germany, evidence usefulness our approach. In particular, find that physical distancing lockdowns vaccination campaigns are dominant.

Язык: Английский

The limits of human mobility traces to predict the spread of COVID-19: A transfer entropy approach DOI Creative Commons

Federico Delussu,

Michele Tizzoni, Laëtitia Gauvin

и другие.

PNAS Nexus, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 2(10)

Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2023

Abstract Mobile phone data have been widely used to model the spread of COVID-19; however, quantifying and comparing their predictive value across different settings is challenging. Their quality affected by various factors relationship with epidemiological indicators varies over time. Here, we adopt a model-free approach based on transfer entropy quantify between mobile phone-derived mobility metrics COVID-19 cases deaths in more than 200 European subnational regions. Using multiple sources one-year period, found that past knowledge does not systematically provide statistically significant information spread. Our allows us determine best metric for predicting disease incidence particular location, at spatial scales. Additionally, identify geographic demographic factors, such as users’ coverage commuting patterns, explain (non)observed epidemic patterns. work provides epidemiologists public health officials general—not limited COVID-19—framework evaluate usefulness human responding epidemics.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

10
Visualization and Quantification of Facemask Leakage Flows and Interpersonal Transmission with Varying Face Coverings DOI Open Access
Xiuhua Si,

Jensen S. Xi,

Mohamed Talaat

и другие.

Опубликована: Июнь 7, 2024

Although mask-wearing is now widespread, knowledge of how to quantify or improve its performance remains surprisingly limited and largely based on empirical evidence. The objective this study was visualize the expiratory airflows from facemasks evaluate aerosol transmission between two persons. Different visualization methods were explored, including Schlieren optical system, laser/LED-particle imaging thermal camera, vapor-SarGel system. leakage flows escaped aerosols quantified using a hotwire anemometer particle counter, respectively. results show that reduces exhaled flow velocity 2~4 m/s (with no facemask) around 0.1 m/s, thus decreasing droplet speeds. Cloth, surgical, KN95 masks showed varying at nose top, sides, chin. rate also differed inhalation exhalation. neck gaiter has low filtration efficiency high fractions, providing protection efficiency. There considerable deposition in mouth-nose area, as well neck, chin, jaw, which heightened risk self-inoculation through spontaneous face-touching. A face shield plus surgical mask greatly reduced droplets head, face, indicating double coverings can be highly effective when single insufficient. system provided practical approach interpersonal under close contact scenarios with different coverings.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
TLControl: Trajectory and Language Control for Human Motion Synthesis DOI
Weilin Wan, Zhiyang Dou, Taku Komura

и другие.

Lecture notes in computer science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 37 - 54

Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
A three-state coupled Markov switching model for COVID-19 outbreaks across Quebec based on hospital admissions DOI
Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Alexandra M. Schmidt, Yan Shen

и другие.

The Annals of Applied Statistics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 19(1)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Patterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts DOI
Gregg Gonsalves, A. David Paltiel, Thomas Thornhill

и другие.

Clinical Infectious Diseases, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 76(12), С. 2134 - 2139

Опубликована: Фев. 8, 2023

Abstract Background Since 2014, multiple outbreaks of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among people who inject drugs have occurred across the United States along with hepatitis C (HCV), skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs), infective endocarditis (IE), creating a converging public health crisis. Methods We analyzed temporal patterns infectious disease overdose using hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag logistic regression model examining probability that given geographic area experienced at least 1 HIV case in month as function counts/rates overdose, HCV, SSTI, IE associated medical procedures different lagged time periods. Results Current-month is increasing HCV cases, abscess incision drainage, SSTI distinct patterns. For example, additional occurring 5 7 months previously 4% increase odds observing current-month locale (odds ratios, 1.04 [90% credible interval {CrI}: 1.01–1.10] CrI: 1.00–1.09]). No such associations were observed for echocardiograms, IE, or overdose. Conclusions Lagged other preceding rises counts cannot be described predictive but may point toward newly discovered epidemics injection drug use clinical sequalae, prompting clinicians to screen patients more carefully substance disorder infections.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

7
Night-time population consistently explains the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in three megacities in Japan DOI Creative Commons
Yuta Okada, Syudo Yamasaki, Atsushi Nishida

и другие.

Frontiers in Public Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11

Опубликована: Июнь 21, 2023

Background Mobility data are crucial for understanding the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but consistency usefulness these over time has been questioned. The present study aimed to reveal relationship between transmissibility COVID-19 in Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi prefectures daily night-time population metropolitan areas belonging each prefecture. Methods In Japan, de facto estimated from GPS-based location mobile phone users is regularly monitored by Ministry Health, Labor, Welfare other health departments. Combined with this data, we conducted a series linear regression analysis explore reported case counts Aichi, downtown February 2020 May 2022. As an approximation effective reproduction number, weekly ratio cases was used. Models using lags ranging 7 14 days were tested. time-varying analysis, level change included as explanatory variables. fixed-effect inclusion either or change, both, variables tested, autocorrelation adjusted introducing first-order autoregressive error residuals. both analyses, lag used best fit models determined information criterion. Results tended show positive neutral effects on transmission, whereas showed negative effects. revealed that Tokyo 8-day-lagged fit, model only 9-day-lagged widely applicable For all regions, best-fit suggested transmissibility, which maintained time. Conclusion Our results that, regardless period interest, levels observed. introduction vaccinations major outbreaks Omicron BA. Two subvariants Japan did not dramatically three megacities Japan. Monitoring continues be forecasting short-term future incidence.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6
Visualization and Quantification of Facemask Leakage Flows and Interpersonal Transmission with Varying Face Coverings DOI Creative Commons
Xiuhua Si,

Jensen S. Xi,

Mohamed Talaat

и другие.

Fluids, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 9(7), С. 166 - 166

Опубликована: Июль 22, 2024

Although mask-wearing is now widespread, the knowledge of how to quantify or improve their performance remains surprisingly limited and largely based on empirical evidence. The objective this study was visualize expiratory airflows from facemasks evaluate aerosol transmission between two persons. Different visualization methods were explored, including Schlieren optical system, laser/LED-particle imaging thermal camera, vapor–SarGel system. leakage flows escaped aerosols quantified using a hotwire anemometer particle counter, respectively. results show that reduces exhaled flow velocity 2~4 m/s (with no facemask) around 0.1 m/s, thus decreasing droplet speeds. Cloth, surgical, KN95 masks showed varying at nose top, sides, chin. rate also differed inhalation exhalation. neck gaiter has low filtration efficiency high fractions, providing protection efficiency. There considerable deposition in mouth–nose area, as well neck, chin, jaw, which heightened risk self-inoculation through spontaneous face-touching. A face shield plus surgical mask greatly reduced droplets head, face, indicating double coverings can be highly effective when single insufficient. system provided practical approach interpersonal under close contact scenarios with different coverings.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut DOI Creative Commons
Olga Morozova, Zehang Li, Forrest W. Crawford

и другие.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2020, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Июнь 16, 2020

Abstract To support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections infections, hospitalizations, deaths, as well estimates important features transmission, behavior, healthcare response, clinical progression disease. In this paper, describe meet the changing requirements officials Connecticut from March 2020 February 2021. We outline design, implementation calibration, how used decision-making throughout first year pandemic. calibrated data on deaths novel measure close interpersonal contact frequency capture changes risk over time multiple local sources infer dynamics time-varying inputs. Estimated epidemiologic epidemic include effective reproduction number, cumulative incidence infection, infection hospitalization fatality ratios, case detection ratio. methodology for producing evolution under uncertain future scenarios, analytical tools estimating that are difficult directly, such effects non-pharmaceutical interventions. The approach takes advantage our unique access surveillance hospital direct connection state policymakers. conclude with discussion limitations inherent predicting trajectories lessons learned one providing Connecticut.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

13
Association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2: a household transmission study DOI Creative Commons
Jackie Kleynhans, Lorenzo Dall’Amico, Laëtitia Gauvin

и другие.

eLife, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 12

Опубликована: Июль 18, 2023

Background: Households are an important location for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, especially during periods when travel and work was restricted to essential services. We aimed assess the association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: deployed proximity sensors two weeks measure face-to-face interactions between household members after identified in household, South Africa, 2020–2021. calculated duration, frequency, average duration events index cases. assessed parameters transmission using mixed effects logistic regression accounting member characteristics. Results: included 340 individuals (88 cases 252 members). On multivariable analysis, factors associated acquisition were minimum C t value <30 (aOR 16.8 95% CI 3.1–93.1) vs >35, female contacts 2.5 1.3–5.0). No 1.0–1.1) any cumulative time contact, or parameters. Conclusions: did not find Our findings may be due study limitations, that droplet-mediated close-proximity plays a smaller role than airborne high rates households. Funding: Wellcome Trust (Grant number 221003/Z/20/Z) collaboration Foreign, Commonwealth, Development Office, United Kingdom.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
Trending on the use of Google mobility data in COVID-19 mathematical models DOI Creative Commons
Yang Deng,

Hefei Lin,

Daihai He

и другие.

Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2024(1)

Опубликована: Июль 5, 2024

Abstract Google mobility data has been widely used in COVID-19 mathematical modeling to understand disease transmission dynamics. This review examines the extensive literature on use of modeling. We mainly focus over a dozen influential studies using modeling, including compartmental and metapopulation models. provides valuable insights into changes interventions. However, challenges persist fully elucidating dynamics time, longer time series accounting for individual-level correlations patterns, urging incorporation diverse datasets post-COVID-19 landscape.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1