Communications Earth & Environment,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
4(1)
Опубликована: Апрель 19, 2023
Abstract
Climate
models
predict
a
weak
poleward
shift
of
the
jets
in
response
to
continuing
climate
change.
Here
we
revisit
observed
jet
trends
using
40
years
satellite-era
reanalysis
products
and
find
evidence
that
general
shifts
are
emerging.
The
significance
these
is
often
low
varies
between
datasets,
but
similarity
across
different
seasons
hemispheres
notable.
While
much
recent
work
has
focused
on
amplified
Arctic
warming,
more
consistent
with
known
sensitivity
circulation
tropical
warming.
within
range
historical
model
simulations
relatively
large
compared
when
accompanying
upper
tropospheric
temperature
gradients
considered.
balance
warming
should
therefore
be
closely
monitored
near
future.
We
hypothesise
heating
may
one
factor
affecting
this
balance.
Climatic Change,
Год журнала:
2018,
Номер
151(3-4), С. 555 - 571
Опубликована: Ноя. 10, 2018
As
climate
change
research
becomes
increasingly
applied,
the
need
for
actionable
information
is
growing
rapidly.
A
key
aspect
of
this
requirement
representation
uncertainties.
The
conventional
approach
to
representing
uncertainty
in
physical
aspects
probabilistic,
based
on
ensembles
model
simulations.
In
face
deep
uncertainties,
known
limitations
are
becoming
apparent.
An
alternative
thus
emerging
which
may
be
called
a
'storyline'
approach.
We
define
storyline
as
physically
self-consistent
unfolding
past
events,
or
plausible
future
events
pathways.
No
priori
probability
assessed;
emphasis
placed
instead
understanding
driving
factors
involved,
and
plausibility
those
factors.
introduce
typology
four
reasons
using
storylines
represent
change:
(i)
improving
risk
awareness
by
framing
an
event-oriented
rather
than
probabilistic
manner,
corresponds
more
directly
how
people
perceive
respond
risk;
(ii)
strengthening
decision-making
allowing
one
work
backward
from
particular
vulnerability
decision
point,
combining
with
other
relevant
address
compound
develop
appropriate
stress
tests;
(iii)
providing
basis
partitioning
uncertainty,
thereby
use
credible
regional
models
conditioned
manner
(iv)
exploring
boundaries
plausibility,
guarding
against
false
precision
surprise.
Storylines
also
offer
powerful
way
linking
human
change.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2018,
Номер
9(1)
Опубликована: Июль 23, 2018
Accelerated
warming
in
the
Arctic,
as
compared
to
rest
of
globe,
might
have
profound
impacts
on
mid-latitude
weather.
Most
studies
analyzing
Arctic
links
weather
focused
winter,
yet
recent
summers
seen
strong
reductions
sea-ice
extent
and
snow
cover,
a
weakened
equator-to-pole
thermal
gradient
associated
weakening
circulation.
We
review
scientific
evidence
behind
three
leading
hypotheses
influence
changes
summer
weather:
Weakened
storm
tracks,
shifted
jet
streams,
amplified
quasi-stationary
waves.
show
that
interactions
between
teleconnections
other
remote
regional
feedback
processes
could
lead
more
persistent
hot-dry
extremes
mid-latitudes.
The
exact
nature
these
non-linear
is
not
well
quantified
but
they
provide
potential
high-impact
risks
for
society.
Journal of Climate,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
33(14), С. 5829 - 5843
Опубликована: Май 4, 2020
Abstract
Higher
precipitation
is
expected
over
most
of
the
world’s
continents
under
climate
change,
except
for
a
few
specific
regions
where
models
project
robust
declines.
Among
these,
Mediterranean
stands
out
as
result
magnitude
and
significance
its
winter
decline.
Locally,
up
to
40%
could
be
lost,
setting
strong
limits
on
water
resources
that
will
constrain
ability
region
develop
grow
food,
affecting
millions
already
water-stressed
people
threatening
stability
this
tense
complex
area.
To
day,
however,
theory
explaining
special
nature
change
hot
spot
still
lacking.
Regional
circulation
changes,
dominated
by
development
anomalous
ridge,
are
thought
drive
decline,
but
their
origins
potential
contributions
regional
hydroclimate
remain
elusive.
Here,
we
show
how
wintertime
trends
can
seen
combined
response
two
independent
forcings:
changes
in
large-scale,
upper-tropospheric
flow
reduction
land–sea
temperature
gradient
characteristic
region.
In
addition,
discuss
account
spatial
structure
drying.
Our
findings
pave
way
better
understanding
improved
modeling
future
hydroclimate.
Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
475(2225), С. 20190013 - 20190013
Опубликована: Май 1, 2019
Climate
science
seeks
to
make
statements
of
confidence
about
what
has
happened,
and
will
happen
(conditional
on
scenario).
The
approach
is
effective
for
the
global,
thermodynamic
aspects
climate
change,
but
ineffective
when
it
comes
change
related
atmospheric
circulation,
which
are
highly
uncertain.
Yet,
circulation
strongly
mediates
impacts
at
regional
scale.
In
this
way,
framework,
focuses
avoiding
type
1
errors
(false
alarms),
raises
prospect
committing
2
(missed
warnings).
This
ethical
implications.
At
scale,
however,
where
information
be
combined
with
many
other
factors
affecting
vulnerability
exposure-most
uncertain-the
societally
relevant
question
not
'What
happen?'
rather
impact
particular
actions
under
an
uncertain
change?'
reframing
can
cut
Gordian
knot
information,
provided
one
distinguishes
between
epistemic
aleatoric
uncertainties-something
that
generally
done
in
projections.
It
argued
storyline
change-the
identification
physically
self-consistent,
plausible
pathways-has
potential
accomplish
precisely
this.
Nature Climate Change,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
12(4), С. 350 - 355
Опубликована: Март 14, 2022
Compound
hot–dry
events—co-occurring
hot
and
dry
extremes—frequently
cause
damages
to
human
natural
systems,
often
exceeding
separate
impacts
from
heatwaves
droughts.
Strong
increases
in
the
occurrence
of
these
events
are
projected
with
warming,
but
associated
uncertainties
remain
large
poorly
understood.
Here,
using
climate
model
ensembles,
we
show
that
mean
precipitation
trends
exclusively
modulate
future
compound
over
land.
This
occurs
because
local
warming
will
be
enough
droughts
always
coincide
at
least
moderately
extremes,
even
a
2
°C
warmer
world.
By
contrast,
weak
equivocal
sign,
depending
on
model,
region
internal
variability.
Therefore,
constraining
regional
also
constrain
events.
These
results
help
assess
frequencies
other
extremes
characterized
by
strongly
different
drivers.
Co-occurring
predicted
increase
global
warming.
Changes
extent
changes,
highlighting
importance
understanding
prepare
society
minimize
impacts.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
12(6)
Опубликована: Авг. 16, 2021
Abstract
Approximately
10
years
ago,
convection‐permitting
regional
climate
models
(CPRCMs)
emerged
as
a
promising
computationally
affordable
tool
to
produce
fine
resolution
(1–4
km)
decadal‐long
simulations
with
explicitly
resolved
deep
convection.
This
explicit
representation
is
expected
reduce
projection
uncertainty
related
convection
parameterizations
found
in
most
models.
A
recent
surge
CPRCM
decadal
over
larger
domains,
sometimes
covering
continents,
has
led
important
insights
into
advantages
and
limitations.
Furthermore,
new
observational
gridded
datasets
spatial
temporal
(~1
km;
~1
h)
resolutions
have
leveraged
additional
knowledge
through
evaluations
of
the
added
value
CPRCMs.
With
an
improved
coordination
frame
ongoing
international
initiatives,
production
ensembles
provide
more
robust
projections
better
identification
their
associated
uncertainties.
review
paper
presents
overview
methodology
latest
research
on
current
future
climates.
Impact
studies
that
are
already
taking
advantage
these
highlighted.
ends
by
proposing
next
steps
could
be
accomplished
continue
exploiting
full
potential
article
categorized
under:
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