Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 151(3-4), P. 555 - 571

Published: Nov. 10, 2018

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement representation uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects probabilistic, based on ensembles model simulations. In face deep uncertainties, known limitations are becoming apparent. An alternative thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline' approach. We define storyline as physically self-consistent unfolding past events, or plausible future events pathways. No priori probability assessed; emphasis placed instead understanding driving factors involved, and plausibility those factors. introduce typology four reasons using storylines represent change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing an event-oriented rather than probabilistic manner, corresponds more directly how people perceive respond risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making allowing one work backward from particular vulnerability decision point, combining with other relevant address compound develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing basis partitioning uncertainty, thereby use credible regional models conditioned manner (iv) exploring boundaries plausibility, guarding against false precision surprise. Storylines also offer powerful way linking human change.

Language: Английский

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Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 210, P. 103348 - 103348

Published: Sept. 6, 2020

Language: Английский

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The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: July 23, 2018

Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to rest of globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links weather focused winter, yet recent summers seen strong reductions sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient associated weakening circulation. We review scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses influence changes summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, amplified quasi-stationary waves. show that interactions between teleconnections other remote regional feedback processes could lead more persistent hot-dry extremes mid-latitudes. The exact nature these non-linear is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.

Language: Английский

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Why Is the Mediterranean a Climate Change Hot Spot?

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 33(14), P. 5829 - 5843

Published: May 4, 2020

Abstract Higher precipitation is expected over most of the world’s continents under climate change, except for a few specific regions where models project robust declines. Among these, Mediterranean stands out as result magnitude and significance its winter decline. Locally, up to 40% could be lost, setting strong limits on water resources that will constrain ability region develop grow food, affecting millions already water-stressed people threatening stability this tense complex area. To day, however, theory explaining special nature change hot spot still lacking. Regional circulation changes, dominated by development anomalous ridge, are thought drive decline, but their origins potential contributions regional hydroclimate remain elusive. Here, we show how wintertime trends can seen combined response two independent forcings: changes in large-scale, upper-tropospheric flow reduction land–sea temperature gradient characteristic region. In addition, discuss account spatial structure drying. Our findings pave way better understanding improved modeling future hydroclimate.

Language: Английский

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A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 55(1-2), P. 3 - 34

Published: Nov. 12, 2018

Language: Английский

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Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 475(2225), P. 20190013 - 20190013

Published: May 1, 2019

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects climate change, but ineffective when it comes change related atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, circulation strongly mediates impacts at regional scale. In this way, framework, focuses avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises prospect committing 2 (missed warnings). This ethical implications. At scale, however, where information be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability exposure-most uncertain-the societally relevant question not 'What happen?' rather impact particular actions under an uncertain change?' reframing can cut Gordian knot information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic aleatoric uncertainties-something that generally done in projections. It argued storyline change-the identification physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has potential accomplish precisely this.

Language: Английский

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Framing, Context, and Methods

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 147 - 286

Published: June 29, 2023

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Language: Английский

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North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 583(7818), P. 796 - 800

Published: July 29, 2020

Language: Английский

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Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 350 - 355

Published: March 14, 2022

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large poorly understood. Here, using climate model ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate future compound over land. This occurs because local warming will be enough droughts always coincide at least moderately extremes, even a 2 °C warmer world. By contrast, weak equivocal sign, depending on model, region internal variability. Therefore, constraining regional also constrain events. These results help assess frequencies other extremes characterized by strongly different drivers. Co-occurring predicted increase global warming. Changes extent changes, highlighting importance understanding prepare society minimize impacts.

Language: Английский

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Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6)

Published: Aug. 16, 2021

Abstract Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected reduce projection uncertainty related convection parameterizations found in most models. A recent surge CPRCM decadal over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led important insights into advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets spatial temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value CPRCMs. With an improved coordination frame ongoing international initiatives, production ensembles provide more robust projections better identification their associated uncertainties. review paper presents overview methodology latest research on current future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage these highlighted. ends by proposing next steps could be accomplished continue exploiting full potential article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Earth System

Language: Английский

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