The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 8(18)

Опубликована: Май 4, 2022

In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that event was extreme, not obvious whether other areas in world have also events so far their natural variability. Using novel assessment extremes, we investigate how extreme this global context. Characterizing relative intensity an as number standard deviations from mean, remarkable, coming at over four deviations. Throughout globe, where reliable data, only five waves were found to be more since 1960. We find both reanalyses and climate projections, statistical extremes increases through time, line with mean shift due change. Regions that, by chance, had recent may less prepared for potentially imminent events.

Язык: Английский

---

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 8(43)

Опубликована: Окт. 28, 2022

Increased extreme heat is among the clearest impacts of global warming, but economic effects waves are poorly understood. Using subnational data, metrics measuring temperature hottest several days in each year, and an ensemble climate models, we quantify effect intensity on growth globally. We find that human-caused increases have depressed output most poor tropical regions least culpable for warming. Cumulative 1992-2013 losses from anthropogenic likely fall between $5 trillion $29.3 Losses amount to 6.7% Gross Domestic Product per capita year bottom income decile, only 1.5% top decile. Our results potential inform adaptation investments demonstrate how inequality both a cause consequence unequal burden change.

Язык: Английский

---

Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability

Environmental Research Climate, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 2(2), С. 023001 - 023001

Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2023

Abstract Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given contingencies originating from combination of different sources projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review causes and consequences variability, how it can be quantified accounted in uncertainty assessments, what research questions remain most pertinent better understand its predictive limits science society. This perspective argues putting variability into spotlight intensifying collaborations between modeling application communities.

Язык: Английский

---

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Март 10, 2025

Abstract We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate hazards can contribute to stop being surprised. then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, how may build resilience. stimulate thinking about transformative as a foundation for long-term resilience weather, supported by incremental through upgrading existing infrastructure, reactive short-term early action response. Because in end, should take responsibility rather than surprised weather.

Язык: Английский

---

Growing Threats From Unprecedented Sequential Flood‐Hot Extremes Across China

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 48(18)

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2021

Abstract When multiple extremes occur in rapid sequence, their impacts cascade to cause disproportionate damages. However, the prevalence of univariate definitions and inability identify low‐likelihood events short observations/simulations leave knowledge on sequential sparse. Leveraging two initial‐condition large ensembles, we project future changes historically unprecedented flood‐hot China. Results show that despite dozens 1 50‐year floods hot more than 2,000 years historical simulations, sequenced occurrence within a week has no precedent. This out‐of‐ordinary configuration is projected be increasingly possible across China, with earlier emergence larger frequency increases expected Southwest Southeast The direction, spatial extent, magnitude cannot explained by internal variability alone, though it potential modulate human‐caused timing magnitude.

Язык: Английский

---

Unprecedented Heatwave in Western North America during Late June of 2021: Roles of Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 40(1), С. 14 - 28

Опубликована: Июль 22, 2022

Abstract An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America (i.e., the Pacific Northwest) in late June of 2021, resulting hundreds deaths, a massive die-off sea creatures off coast, horrific wildfires. Here, we use observational data to find atmospheric circulation variabilities Arctic-Pacific-Canada patterns that co-occurred with development mature phases heatwave, as well pattern, which coincided decaying eastward movement heatwave. Climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) are not designed simulate particular event like this one. Still, show greenhouse gases main reason for long-term increase average daily maximum temperature past future.

Язык: Английский

---

Demystifying global climate models for use in the life sciences

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 38(9), С. 843 - 858

Опубликована: Май 11, 2023

Язык: Английский

---

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2023

Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave been foreseen, based on climate model information available event? scientific community quantified its potential current generation models? Here, we demonstrate how ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines a hotter than in Northwest. We also show heatwaves much greater ever are possible other locations like Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order establish confidence 'black swan'-type events, different lines evidence need combined along process understanding make this robust actionable for stakeholders.

Язык: Английский

---

Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9(36)

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2023

As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological behavioral adaptation. Here, we conduct an extreme value theory analysis weather station observations climate model projections investigate emergence empirically supported heat compensability limit. We show that hottest parts world already experience these extremes on limited basis under moderate continued warming every continent, except Antarctica, see rapid increase in their extent frequency. To conclude, discuss consequences this noncompensable need for incorporating different thermal adaptation planning.

Язык: Английский

---

Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(1), С. 1 - 15

Опубликована: Янв. 7, 2025

Abstract. Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. Being able to simulate worst-case scenarios for such events present and future climates is hence crucial short- long-term adaptation. In this paper, we are interested persistent events, whose probability will decrease with climate change. Large ensembles of simulations allow us better analyse the mechanisms characteristics but can require significant computational resources. Rather than simulating very large normal trajectories, rare-event algorithms sampling tail distributions more efficiently. Such been applied extreme heat waves. They emphasized role atmospheric circulation extremes. The goal study evaluate dynamics spells simulated by a algorithm. We focus on that occurred France from 1950 2021. investigate mean (December, January February) identify record-shattering event 1963. find although frequency decreases time, their intensity stationary. apply stochastic weather generator (SWG) approach importance coldest winters could occur factual counterfactual climate. thus worst consistent reanalysis data. few reach colder historical This shows present-day conditions trigger as record spite global warming. prevails during those analysed compared observed record-breaking showing no main change leading type event.

Язык: Английский

---