The optimisation of public health emergency governance: a simulation study based on COVID-19 pandemic control policy DOI Creative Commons
Keng Yang, Hanying Qi

Globalization and Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 19(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 4, 2023

Abstract Background The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked numerous studies on policy options for managing public health emergencies, especially regarding how to choose intensity prevention and control maintain a balance between economic development disease prevention. Methods We constructed cost-benefit model policies based an epidemic transmission model. On this basis, numerical simulations were performed different economies analyse dynamic evolution policies. These include areas with high costs, as seen in high-income economies, relatively low exhibited upper-middle-income economies. Results simulation results indicate that, at outset pandemic, both high-and low-cost tended enforce intensive interventions. However, virus evolved, particularly circumstances rates reproduction, short incubation periods, spans infection mortality rates, high-cost became inclined ease restrictions, while took opposite approach. consideration additional costs incurred by non-infected population means that economy is likely lift restrictions well. Conclusions This study concludes variations among nations varying income levels stem from variances characteristics, development, costs. can help researchers policymakers better understand differences choice various well changing trends choices, thus providing certain reference value direction global emergencies.

Язык: Английский

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency DOI Creative Commons
Mario Coccia

AIMS Public Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 10(1), С. 145 - 168

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

<abstract> <p>Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of most important questions an accurate prevention, preparedness prediction for next pandemic. The main goal study twofold: first, clarification sources factors may trigger pandemic threats; second, examination models on-going pandemics, showing pros cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show vital role environmental in spread Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), many limitations epidemiologic because complex interactions between viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment society have generated variants sub-variants with rapid transmission. insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated public order provide lessons learned policy reduce risks emergence diffusion having negative societal impact.</p> </abstract>

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

90
The analysis of a novel COVID-19 model with the fractional-order incorporating the impact of the vaccination campaign in Nigeria via the Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Method DOI Creative Commons
Akeem Olarewaju Yunus, Morufu Oyedunsi Olayiwola

Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 1830 - 1830

Опубликована: Март 27, 2024

This study underscores the crucial role of COVID-19 vaccinations in managing pandemic, with a specific focus on Nigeria. Employing fractional-order mathematical modeling approach, research assesses vaccination efficacy, minimum effectiveness, and duration. The model’s numerical solution is derived through Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method (LADM), utilizing rapidly converging infinite series. Simulation results illustrate impact transmission rates. concludes that implementing strategy an integer order proves to be most effective approach controlling spread COVID-19. These findings have significant implications for researchers, policymakers, healthcare workers. They emphasize central fractional calculus facilitating vaccine implementation ongoing battle against calls global efforts maximize overall benefit public health.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6
Analysis of the SEIR Mean-Field Model in Dynamic Networks under Intervention DOI Creative Commons

Jiangmin Li,

Zhen Jin, Ming Tang

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach DOI Creative Commons
Farhad Waseel, George Streftaris, Bhuvendhraa Rudrusamy

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 9(2), С. 527 - 556

Опубликована: Март 12, 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination policy assess impact on controlling transmission Malaysia using Bayesian data-driven approach, concentrating the year 2021. We employ compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) model, incorporating time-varying rate method for estimation through an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach. While no vaccine guarantees total immunity against disease, wanes over time, it critical include accurately estimate efficacy, as well constant decay or wane factor, better simulate dynamics vaccine-induced protection time. Based distribution effectiveness vaccines, we integrated calculated at 75% Malaysia, underscoring model's realism relevance specific context country. inference framework used assimilate various data sources account underlying uncertainties model parameters. fitted real-world from analyze disease spread trends evaluate our proposed policy. Our findings reveal that policy, which emphasizes accelerated during initial stages program, highly effective mitigating substantially reducing peak new infections. found vaccinating 57–66% population (as opposed 76% real data) with such here able reduce number infections ultimately costs associated contributes development robust informative representation vaccination, offering valuable insights policymakers potential benefits limitations different policies, particularly highlighting importance well-planned efficient rollout strategy. methodology specifically applied national successful application local regions within Selangor Johor, indicates adaptability broader application. This demonstrates assessment improvement across demographic epidemiological landscapes, implying usefulness similar datasets geographical regions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Hong Kong SAR China and Singapore DOI Creative Commons
Boyu Yu, Qiong Li, Jing Chen

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 8(1), С. 101 - 106

Опубликована: Дек. 20, 2022

Vaccination has been the most important measure to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. The vaccination coverage was relatively low in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region China, compared Singapore, early 2022. Hypothetically, if two regions, (HK) and Singapore (SG), swap their rate, what outcome would occur?

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

10
Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia DOI Creative Commons
Karan Thakkar, Júlia Spinardi, Jingyan Yang

и другие.

Frontiers in Public Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11

Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2023

Epidemiological modeling is widely used to offer insights into the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Asia. We reviewed published computational (mathematical/simulation) models conducted Asia that assessed impacts of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions against their implications for vaccination strategy.A search PubMed database peer-reviewed, published, accessible articles English was performed up November 2022 capture studies Asian populations based on outcomes pandemic. Extracted data included model type (mechanistic compartmental/agent-based, statistical, both), intervention (pharmacological, non-pharmacological), procedures parameterizing age. Findings are summarized with descriptive statistics discussed terms evolving situation.The literature identified 378 results, which 59 met criteria extraction. China, Japan, South Korea accounted approximately half studies, fewer from South-East Mechanistic were most common, either compartmental (61.0%), agent-based (1.7%), or combination (18.6%) models. Statistical applied less frequently (11.9%). Pharmacological examined 59.3% considered vaccination, except one study an antiviral treatment. Non-pharmacological also 84.7% studies. Infection, hospitalization, mortality 91.5%, 30.5%, 30.5% respectively. Approximately a third age, including 10 mortality. Four these emphasized benefits prioritizing older adults under conditions limited supply; however, noted potential infection rates early younger adults. Few (5.1%) impact among children.Early pandemic, helped mitigate health burden COVID-19; indicates high population coverage effective vaccines will complement reduce reliance such interventions. Thus, increasing maintaining immunity levels through regular booster shots, particularly at-risk vulnerable groups, adults, might help protect public health. Future efforts should consider new alternative therapies alongside virus varied histories.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6
Forecast for peak infections in the second wave of the Omicron after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in the mainland of China DOI Creative Commons
Sheng-Tao Wang, Yong-Ping Wu, Li Li

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 8(2), С. 562 - 573

Опубликована: Май 30, 2023

On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government optimized current epidemic prevention and control policy, no longer adopted zero-COVID policy mandatory quarantine measures. Based on above changes, this paper establishes a compartment dynamics model considering age distribution, home isolation vaccinations. Parameter estimation was performed using improved least squares Nelder-Mead simplex algorithms combined with modified case data. Then, estimated parameter values to predict second wave of outbreak, peak severe cases will reach 8 May 2023, number 206,000. Next, it is proposed that extension effective time antibodies obtained after infection, in be delayed, final scale disease reduced. When effectiveness 6 months, July 5, 194,000. Finally, importance vaccination rates demonstrated, when rate susceptible people under 60 years old reaches 98%, over 96%, reached 13 166,000.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

5
Sequence analysis of the Spike, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, and protease genes reveals a distinct evolutionary pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in Yogyakarta and Central Java provinces, Indonesia DOI
Mohamad S. Hakim,

Gunadi Gunadi,

Ayu Rahayu

и другие.

Virus Genes, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 60(2), С. 105 - 116

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Estimate the Numbers of Lives Saved by a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaign in Six States in the United States with a Simple Model DOI Creative Commons
Yin Yi,

Shuhan Tang,

Qiong Li

и другие.

IJID Regions, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12, С. 100390 - 100390

Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2024

Vaccination and the emergence of highly transmissible Omicron variant changed fate COVID-19 pandemic. It is very challenging to estimate number lives saved by vaccination given multiple doses vaccination, time-varying nature transmissibility, waning immunity, presence immune evasion. We established a S-SV-E-I-T-D-R model simulate numbers in six states United States during March 5, 2020, 23, 2023. The cumulative deaths were estimated under three scenarios based on two assumptions. Additionally, evasion loss protection afforded or infection considered. averted vaccinations (including doses) was ranged from 0.154% 0.295% total population across states. third 0.008% 0.017% population. Our death U.S. largely line with official (at level 0.15%-0.20% population). found that additional contribution small but significant.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Assessing the impact of vaccination and medical resource allocation on infectious disease outbreak management: a case study of COVID-19 in Taiyuan City DOI Creative Commons
Jiaming Guo, Yuxin Luo, Yifei Ma

и другие.

Frontiers in Public Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2024

Introduction Amidst an emerging infectious disease outbreak, the rational allocation of vaccines and medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic’s progression. Method Analysing COVID-19 data in Taiyuan City from December 2022 to January 2023, this study constructed a SV1V2V3EIQHR dynamics model assess impact vaccination resource on epidemic trends. Results Vaccination significantly reduces infection rates, hospitalisations, severe cases, while also curtailing strain by reducing congestion periods. An early sufficient reserve can delay onset congestion, with increased maximum capacity resources, congestion’s end be accelerated. Stronger capabilities lead earlier resolution within fixed total pool. Discussion Integrating effectively reduce duration alleviate (CCMR).

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0